On Apr 17, 7:46*am, Dave N wrote:
Indeed, and to listen to some business commentators there
are sufficient reserves under Lancashire to last the UK for 50 years.

The entire UK may have sufficient shale gas reserves for 25 to 50
years, with the former of those being more likely.

The duration of reserves is not down to the raw reserve size, it is
down to available recovery technology and market price (both of which
are highly volatile). For example, current technology and market price
may make it only economic to recover 20Tcu.ft out of the 200Tcu.ft
reserves, however by the time 20Tcu.ft have been recovered technology
may make recovery of 70T possible and market price eventually may make
120T or more viable.

The UK is going to be turning off coal shortly re EU directive, and
its nukes will eventually lose operating licences. So like the law of
corporate big numbers some of the "new finds" are in fact going to
merely replace lost supply vs deliver new.

Earthquakes are a non-issue.
Due to nature of gas extraction, the UK sitting in the middle of a
tectonic plate, large earthquakes are simply very unlikely. Realise
they have been extracting shale gas actually on the San Andreas fault
and other fault lines for some time without Phoenix becoming beach
front property. The UK has relatively stable geology, it naturally has
a huge number of earthquakes a year.
The fracking in lancashire may have caused a 2.1 earthquake in (I
think) December, being in Cheshire and sat on a concrete raft I simply
felt a slight tilt & return of my pelvis. It was trivial, but will add
to the "earthquake noise".

Fracking mixtures are NOT a non-issue.
In the USA, and most likely the UK, it is difficult "for commercial
reasons" (********) to get the exact mix known, however it is known
that Benzene forms one of the components. This is not ideal, and
indeed in the USA the drilling companies bizarrely have exemption from
the Clean Water Act. No idea what the UK is doing, probably collecting
bribes and examining its political arsehole.
Benzene could interface with ground water, there is considerable
subterranean water transit in the UK. That just might result in more
distorted life forms in London and Parliament eventually, the mind
boggles. More seriously there needs to be research to establish if
other less carcinogenic chemical formulations could be used -
sacrificing absolute performance since there is little commercial
desperation to "get it all out now" because that will merely depress
prices.

Oil companies are just a proxy for the state, more than any other in
fact.

I have no problems in seeing gas & electricity generation prices fall,
as to "insulating homes" I strongly suspect that will continue anyway
simply because you can STILL save a lot of money even if energy prices
were to "collapse" to 2007 levels. Of course, realise we are not going
back to cheap petrol/diesel, the government has a shed sized hole to
fill. The opportunity for the Treasury against a stagnant UK economy
is too great and Votes Come First.

What I would prefer to see is a Sovereign Wealth Fund established via
a tax on domestic shale gas and export (globally), which could be
apportioned to individuals as say a Cancer or terminal disease medical
fund and inherited without tax. I know quite a few cancer suffers (my
mother is soon to be one) who would benefit from a £1000-5000 scaling
sum.
Sadly the UK, as Thatcher did (and I am a capitalist) will squander it
on projects for votes, benefactors, pork & waste.