On Sun, 05 Dec 2010 14:22:44 -0500, wrote:

On Sun, 5 Dec 2010 08:46:24 -0800 (PST), "
wrote:

well electric cars are coming and at home resale time lack of capacity
could discourage buyers. its not just the volt or the telsa, its the
nissan leaf and others.theres a plug in version of the prius coming
too.

I was pretty serious about an electric car since I thought I was the
perfect candidate. I don't drive far but I drive everyday. I also have
a truck and my wife has a "trip car". Unfortunately I still could not
get the numbers to work out, even for a $10k kit conversion on my old
Honda. The biggest unrecognized problem is replacing the batteries
every 3-4 years ($1300-$1500). I was looking at a 10-12 year payback
and not really getting much better in the out years, if the power was
free. I didn't drive far enough.
If you start with $10k, add 2 sets of batteries over 10 years and
assume $3 gas against a car that gets 28 MPG (my Honda) your kit and
batteries will buy gas for 33 miles a day, 365 days a year for 10
years. I will still get an electric bill on top of that. If you say 10
kwh (about 60% of 14 golf cart batteries) that is about $1.40 a day
assuming no losses in the charger and 100% transfer of power in the
car.
I suppose the goldilocks situation is a commuter who has a 15-20 mile
commute and does not need heat or A/C. Nobody has said what the range
is with the heater on or running an A/C.

None of your battery costs apply to cars like the Prius or Volt.
The Volt battery warranty is 8 years/100,000 miles.
Prius is similar.
Battery failures on the Prius is not related to the golf cart
"conversion" batteries you are talking about.
Same will hold true of the Volt.
Here's something about hybrid failure rates.
http://www.hybridcars.com/components...y-failure.html
I was waiting for the Prius dead battery disaster to hit the fan.
Still hasn't happened.
For now "bleeding-edge" folks with bucks will hopefully get the
electric/electric plug-in hybrid car industry in motion.
Along with the usual government suspects.
This should lower costs as economy of scale begin to do their work.
Lower car cost and lower battery cost.
But what will put it over the top is +$5.00 a gallon gasoline.
And that is coming sure as the sun will rise and set.
The numbnuts running the show should get their butts in gear ramping
up nuke power, which is the only way to make electric work well.


--Vic