On Thu, 1 Apr 2010 14:12:56 -0700 (PDT), Jim Wilkins
wrote:

On Apr 1, 5:41*pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee-
associates.us wrote:
...
The problem is that the reported results generally indicate that
most, if not all, of the conventional socio-economic/political
wisdom is wrong, and most of the credos, dogmas and shibboleths
of [political] ideology, where these can be put into testable
form and where data exists (which is too frequently *NOT* the
case), are not [or are no longer] correct. *...

Unka George *(George McDuffee)

Does it support my hypothesis that ONLY the price of oil controls the
world's economies?

jsw
=============
A very good question, but one that illustrates the limitations,
i.e.
most of the credos, dogmas and shibboleths
of [political] ideology, ==where these can be put into testable
form and where data exists== (which is too frequently *NOT* the
case),
===========

The big problem is phrasing or stating your question in a
concise, testable and consensual format.

Two immediate problems (there are most likely many others)

(1) What does the price of oil mean? If US dollars, then CY or
inflation adjusted, if not US dollars what? Euros, Yen, or
gold/silver?

(2) What metric should we use for the world's economies? Average
unemployment rate? Median unemployment rate? Absolute or percent
change in GDP? How should the data be weighted? By population
[China rules]? By percent of GWP (gross world product) generated?
[USA rules] Un weighted? [Luxembourg = China or USA]

Foreign exchange/conversion rates have a huge effect on this
question. Should we use the trading exchange rates or the PPP
[parity purchasing power] equivalents?

FWIW -- The price of oil appears to have a big effect in some
economies such as the US, while commodity price rises in
agricultural products such as rice, may have a major effect in
the less developed countries. What is unusual from the free
market "supply and demand" perspective is the current run-up of
oil prices to c. 85$US/bbl with no significant increase in global
consumption, no significant increase in the cost of production,
and no fall in aggregate supply. This appears to indicate major
market manipulation and profiteering.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aBbjr6rE0Mcs
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au...ies--6163.html
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/a...chargenews_rss
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed...llars-a-barrel
http://www.businessinsider.com/opec-...-80-oil-2010-3



Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).