On Thu, 01 Apr 2010 13:37:18 -0500, "Pete C."
wrote:
snip
Unfortunately, nobody left or right can admit when their policies have
failed, and mostly nobody can even correlate their policies and the
actual results since there is such a long lag time before they typically
have any effect. This is of course why everything is cyclic.
snip
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Actually there has been considerable academic analytical work
done in this area. The field is called "econometrics," and when
the political party affiliation of the president, legislature,
etc. are included, generally as dummy or indicator variable (e.g.
Democrats = 0, Republicans = 1) it is called "political
econometrics."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometrics
http://www.oswego.edu/~kane/econometrics/
http://www.econometrics.org/

http://www.politicaleconometrics.com/
http://www.card.iastate.edu/publicat...is.aspx?id=970
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstrea...May%202009.pdf
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstrea...%202009%20.pdf
and my own web page
http://www.mcduffee-associates.us/PE/Econometrics.htm

Some knowledge of statistical techniques is required to
understand the methodology, such as multi-variant
regression/analysis or canonical analysis, but the advent of
inexpensive computer programs such as WinStat [an Excel add-in]
and even some "free" programs has greatly simplified the
calculations required.

The party affiliation/control of the presidency/legislature can
easily be shifted to reflect lag time of policy changes or going
the other direction, the effect of economic factors on the
election outcomes.

The problem is that the reported results generally indicate that
most, if not all, of the conventional socio-economic/political
wisdom is wrong, and most of the credos, dogmas and shibboleths
of [political] ideology, where these can be put into testable
form and where data exists (which is too frequently *NOT* the
case), are not [or are no longer] correct. Naturally this puts a
very considerable knot in the politicians and talk show hosts
pantyhose, so neither (political) econometrics nor its findings
are widely reported or employed. Generally what is discovered
is that there is no correlation, which greatly simplifies the
analysis (i.e. no need to do any analysis if no correlation), for
example the (widely assumed) increase in aggregate unemployment
with an increase in the CY$ [current year] or CV$ [inflation
adjusted] minimum wage. [Before the flame wars start, more than
likely there is some threshold where an effect would be seen, but
historically the increases have been below this threshold, and
indeed below the rate of inflation.]


Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).