On Jul 13, 6:01*am, "HeyBub" wrote:
phil scott wrote:

Predictions:

a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially
retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential
businesses. * * * actual producers of goods, and essential services
with *low overhead will mostly survive imo.

actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go
under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) * *will get
burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of
business as we are already seeing.

this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead
operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress
payments in advance of progress...

I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of
my contr clients)

Maybe, but your premise is flawed.

There's plenty of credit, but the credit-worthy enterprises are not going
for it.

that is correct...and that is why you may very well be correct that
issuing credit
may not work in the end. My observation however is that is what
govt is up to.

I am not recommending nor condeming the approach... I do *think* that
it might
muddle us through however...'think' being the key word.. I can think
of 50 caveats
that could drive the mess in other directions as well.

I do think however that this e money tactic is the current attempt..



Nobody, but nobody, with a gram of sense would be trying to expand their
business with the uncertainty emanating from Washington.

we are certainly on the same page there.... however I do observe there
is no
shortage of idiots in the world, especially graduated from the Ivy
League schools... a brilliant lot, they
brought us all those 'financial products' you know.



Health insurance,
cap-and-trade, tax increases, and turning terrorists loose in America are
all possibilities and anyone faced with these potential business-destroying
plans would be nuts to take such risks as building a new plant, hiring more
employees, or launching a new product.

myself and those I work with are not shrinking our businesses, we are
definitely cutting
our overhead, fixed labor costs, and other expenses... myself
particularly operating with others
in what have been called 'virtual companies'... previous called joint
ventures. I no longer own a
shop or have a pay roll. but I do the same sorts of business
(industrial systems engrng and machinery
fabrication(.

I notice many hotel chains bulidnng new hotels though.... bless em..


Until these proposals are stamped out or get implemented so one can see the
consequences, expect continued shrinkage in the economy.


I dont disagree... esp for the USA, given our huge range of other
issues, such as 80 million now
reaching retirement and no way in hell to fund that. I share your
views on the cap in trade policy as well,

that does not translate however as some tend to do...that all liberal
policy is bad, and all other policy is right.
I think we have plenty of insanity and corruption to go around on
either side of the fence...polarized views tend
to blind a person to the insanity on his or her own side of the fence.




To paraphrase a famous mantra: "It's the uncertainty, stupid!"



Phil scott


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