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#1
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How I think the economy will go and why
It is a fact that if a nation PRINTS trillions of dollars to solve its
financial problems, that hyper inflation and collapse will follow. However.... our US govt is NOT printing any money,...... it is **issuing electronic credits***, that act as money, and may indeed stimulate the economy....this is assisted by low interest rates so people can afford to buy homes and build businesses etc... little actual money is being printed though. all this is happening as deflation due to tough economic times takes the hot air out of the housing and stock markets etc. the collapsing tax base will also force the bloat out of government... all if tgus us a good thing. This deflation will be painful and *could lead to total collapse.... unless enough trillions in added *credit are issued into the economy through the banks to keep things afloat... floating on a massive sea of *credit. thats whats happening now... its all just barely floating on a massive sea of credit... but it is doing this as the housing and stock market bubbles deflate. thats a good and a necessary thing... so far we are deflating these bubbles, and our bloated state governments without total collapse. With luck that will be continued. ***** again, this sea of funny money **is not actually money*** (just credit), no extra currency is printed for most of it... the US Dollar may very well *regain its value, when the FED raises interest rates again after these bubbles hit bottom... that will be tricky and it remains to be seen how that will be pulled off, especially given the 300 trillion dollars or so in hot air derivitives (insurance policies used to guarantee bad loans). it may be that as the large insurers, such as AIG go broke, file bankrupcy and defualt that a good percentage of this derivitive mess will simply evaporate (like so many trillions in the worlds pension funds have already evaporated.) as the work force gets more desperate, and half of the bloated govt work force is laid off, and the rest got their bloated retirements cut by 70% or so, and the social security recipients are unfortunately cut back to starvation levels..... and we start manufacturing in the US again...we will recover...... it will be a nasty next 15 to 20 years (time span directly calculated from life expectancy tables) all of that is necessary...and will happen on the current path if we are lucky... depends on many things though, luck, oil prices, what we do about nuclear energy, and what other nations do etc.. *** when that stabilizes, my guess in 10 or 20 years of tight times, during which time the 80 million social security recipients will all be deader than hell... restoriing the national economy... full recovery will begin, that will take another 15 to 20 years... and we have seen these time frames recently in China and Russia. then.... interest rates will be raised again, restoring the value of the US dollar in world markets. Investing in the mean time may be problematical. Some high tech areas will pay off well. The best investments will be in ones own operation, skill sets and networks. imo *** Support for this argument is my observation that the FED is willing to loan 'money' to the banks at 1% or less, and the banks are willing to loan at 4%... that tells you that those in charge have a solution for hyper inflation.. and I believe my memo here describes that solution... if relatively few actual dollar bills are printed, paying the money back will be difficult and the 4% intrest will provide the banks with a real profit. why: (if the the treasury prints the actual bills, in excess of actual GDP, then the banks will lose, and collapse...thats why this thing is being done with credit to the banks... and not by putting dollar bills into peoples hands). These guys in charge of the money, as corrupt as they are, probably do know what they are doing in this aspect at least...they need to save their own asses as well as ours. *** Predictions: a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential businesses. actual producers of goods, and essential services with *low overhead will mostly survive imo. actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) will get burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of business as we are already seeing. this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress payments in advance of progress... I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of my contr clients) Phil scott |
#2
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How I think the economy will go and why
So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some
greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "phil scott" wrote in message ... However.... our US govt is NOT printing any money,...... it is **issuing electronic credits***, that act as money, and may indeed stimulate the economy....this is assisted by low interest rates so |
#3
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 12, 9:53*pm, "Stormin Mormon"
wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus *www.lds.org . Sounds mostly nutty to me too. What's the difference of money is printed or electronic? It still spends. As for us social security recipients being dead, I'd like to kick his butt |
#4
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How I think the economy will go and why
Stormin Mormon wrote:
So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. Can you pay your taxes with imaginary money? TDD |
#5
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How I think the economy will go and why
In article ,
The Daring Dufas wrote: Stormin Mormon wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. Can you pay your taxes with imaginary money? TDD Some would suggest that we have been doing that since the end of the gold standard. -- Searching is half the fun: life is much more manageable when thought of as a scavenger hunt as opposed to a surprise party. Jimmy Buffett |
#6
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How I think the economy will go and why
I do agree with the OP. No matter what is done now the most it can do
is soften the blow. It will take 10 to 20 YEARS and our recovery will be anemic at best. Thanks to credit debt and our country not producingf much of anything. In a world economy production moves to the lowest cost place. China with so many people and no environmental safety OSHA etc etc they will own us if they dont already. Plus our country being dependent on others for energy is just plain STUPID. Feds should fund coal to gasoline plants nationwide immediately, |
#7
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How I think the economy will go and why
phil scott wrote:
Predictions: a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential businesses. actual producers of goods, and essential services with *low overhead will mostly survive imo. actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) will get burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of business as we are already seeing. this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress payments in advance of progress... I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of my contr clients) Maybe, but your premise is flawed. There's plenty of credit, but the credit-worthy enterprises are not going for it. Nobody, but nobody, with a gram of sense would be trying to expand their business with the uncertainty emanating from Washington. Health insurance, cap-and-trade, tax increases, and turning terrorists loose in America are all possibilities and anyone faced with these potential business-destroying plans would be nuts to take such risks as building a new plant, hiring more employees, or launching a new product. Until these proposals are stamped out or get implemented so one can see the consequences, expect continued shrinkage in the economy. To paraphrase a famous mantra: "It's the uncertainty, stupid!" |
#8
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How I think the economy will go and why
I don't have the courage to try.
-- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "The Daring Dufas" wrote in message ... Stormin Mormon wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. Can you pay your taxes with imaginary money? TDD |
#9
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 12, 8:02*pm, phil scott wrote:
It is a fact that if a nation PRINTS trillions of dollars to solve its financial problems, that hyper inflation and collapse will follow. However.... our US govt is NOT *printing any money,...... it is **issuing electronic credits***, that act as money, and may indeed stimulate the economy....this is assisted by low interest rates so people can afford to buy homes and build businesses etc... *little actual money is being printed though. all this is happening as deflation due to tough economic times takes the hot air out of the housing and stock markets etc. * the collapsing tax base will also force the bloat out of government... * * all if tgus us a *good thing. This deflation *will be painful and *could lead to total collapse.... unless enough trillions in added *credit are issued into the economy through the banks to keep things afloat... floating on a massive sea of *credit. * thats whats happening now... *its all just barely floating on a massive sea of credit... but it is doing this as the housing and stock market bubbles deflate. * thats a good and a necessary thing... so far we are deflating these bubbles, and our bloated state governments without total collapse. With luck that will be continued. ***** * again, this sea of funny money ***is not actually money*** (just credit), no extra currency is printed for most of it... the US Dollar may very well *regain its value, when the FED raises interest rates again after these bubbles hit bottom... * that will be tricky and it remains to be seen how that will be pulled off, especially given the 300 trillion dollars or so in hot air derivitives (insurance policies used to guarantee bad loans). it may be that as the large insurers, such as AIG go broke, file bankrupcy and defualt that a good percentage of this derivitive mess will simply evaporate *(like so many trillions in the worlds pension funds have already evaporated.) *as the work force gets more *desperate, and half of the bloated govt work force is laid off, and the rest got their bloated retirements cut by 70% or so, and the social security recipients are unfortunately cut back to starvation levels..... and we start manufacturing in the US again...we will recover...... it will be a nasty next 15 to 20 years (time span directly calculated from life expectancy tables) all of that is necessary...and will happen on the current path if we are lucky... depends on many things though, luck, oil prices, what we do about nuclear energy, and what other nations do etc.. *** when that stabilizes, my guess in 10 or 20 years of tight times, during which time the 80 million social security recipients will all be deader than hell... restoriing the national economy... * *full recovery will begin, that will take another 15 to 20 years... and we have seen these time frames recently in China and Russia. then.... interest rates will be raised again, restoring the value of the US dollar in world markets. * Investing in the mean time may be problematical. *Some high tech areas will pay off well. * The best investments will be in ones own operation, skill sets and networks. imo *** Support for this argument is my observation that the FED is willing to loan 'money' to the banks at 1% or less, and the banks are willing to loan at 4%... that tells you that those in charge have a solution for hyper inflation.. and I believe my memo here describes that solution... if relatively few *actual dollar bills are printed, paying the money back will be difficult and the 4% intrest will provide the banks with a real profit. why: (if the the treasury prints the actual bills, in excess of actual GDP, then the banks will lose, and collapse...thats why this thing is being done with credit to the banks... and not by putting dollar bills into peoples hands). These guys in charge of the money, as corrupt as they are, probably do know what they are doing in this aspect at least...they need to save their own asses as well as ours. *** Predictions: a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential businesses. * * * actual producers of goods, and essential services with *low overhead will mostly survive imo. actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) * *will get burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of business as we are already seeing. this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress payments in advance of progress... I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of my contr clients) Phil scott The problem is govt wont get smaller, the govt pensions/benefits will remain intact even for new govt workers, and govt growth will continue to outpace and tax the private sector economy. Example, my property has declined in value 2006, 07 and 08 yet my actual property tax has increased and has no way to go down to match the declining value. Because the multipliers were also changed to ensure that govt still gets their cut even on taxed property that is declining in value well into the future. When gas prices increased, govt did not rush in to lower the tax rate on gas, they just raked in more cash. Now that gas prices are low and cars efficient, govt is looking to tax based on miles instead of gallons. Govt will get its cut, no matter what the economy does, because they can. I just wonder why they have left the Internet economy largely tax-free within the US. |
#10
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 12, 6:53*pm, "Stormin Mormon"
wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. err Norman. Im not giving advice... and no...thats not what I said. and no norman, i an not challenging you or anyone. I am posting my wold guess views on what I think *imght be the govt plan. and no Im not asserting that I am right.. in fact there is no way I could be more than slightly right over such a long time span. and no norman I am not suggesting you run up your credit cards at 25% per year interest or whatever... then hope that 40 years down the road, after most of us and perhaps yersef are all deader than hell...cash in on the green bavks in yer matress.... but you can make such assumptions if you want. You can do better than that though im sure. Phil scott -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus *www.lds.org . "phil scott" wrote in message ... However.... our US govt is NOT *printing any money,...... it is **issuing electronic credits***, that act as money, and may indeed stimulate the economy....this is assisted by low interest rates so |
#11
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 13, 4:52*am, Frank wrote:
On Jul 12, 9:53*pm, "Stormin wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus *www.lds.org . Sounds mostly nutty to me too. *What's the difference of money is printed or electronic? well.... you are surely correct... I oould be off base big time. Ive been wrong plenty of times before. Ive just posted my views. No need to reiterate them. a person might choose to notice that credit can be shrunk back to zero with high interest rates, in effect cutting the 'money' supply.... cash money cant be shrunk in that way...you cannot 'un-print' it. that was my observation. I am not asserting anything beyond that... I am not asserting that I am correct (especially since ive been wrong a lot in my views over my life span, and particularly since I cant recall a time when I or anyone else was exactly 100% correct in all aspects) this was just an observation... for anyone to consider if they want. .. It still spends. *As for us social security recipients being dead, I'd like to kick his butt I am a social security recipient... I am almost 70.. most of us that age bracket will be deader than hell. many of us shortly...and then we will not be cashing any more social security checks, and that will bring viability back to the SS system. all that is simply how it is. and how it is.... is always relevant of course. The maturinty and thoughfulness i see on this NG though is impressive... you guys must be a pleasure in person. Phil scott |
#12
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 13, 5:48*am, Kurt Ullman wrote:
In article , *The Daring Dufas wrote: Stormin Mormon wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. Can you pay your taxes with imaginary money? TDD * *Some would suggest that we have been doing that since the end of the gold standard. yes, some would suggest that..but they would be missing the point that they worked hard for that money, those green backs..for them its *real money. for the fed issuing credit...well its not quite the same thing, and it can be vaporized at will. its a fine point, but probably the mode by which govt is going to try and unscrew the girlfriend here..... will it work? I think the entire mess is dicy as hell.. there are countless other factors besides just these money issues Ive raised. (primary among them the changing demographics, the debilation that takes place when anything ages... say a flower for instance, has a life cycle, and it ages in a particular pattern...same with produce, and week old hot dogs,..and us old men... we all age...and we all follow a distinct pattern in that aging... then we die out. and that has been true with nations as well...although the land mass seems to remainin in place. the nation just looses its balls so to speak... for instance the British empire.... pooooooof. but England is still there on its small island. Rome is still with us as well...but the roman empire lasted only 300 years (a max0 260 is most comon. Phil scott -- Searching is half the fun: life is much more manageable when thought of as a scavenger hunt as opposed to a surprise party. Jimmy Buffett |
#13
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 13, 5:58*am, bob haller wrote:
I do agree with the OP. No matter what is done now the most it can do is soften the blow. It will take 10 to 20 YEARS and our recovery will be anemic at best. Thanks to credit debt and our country not producingf much of anything. In a world economy production moves to the lowest cost place. China with so many people and no environmental safety OSHA etc etc they will own us if they dont already. Plus our country being dependent on others for energy is just plain STUPID. correct. Feds should fund coal to gasoline plants nationwide immediately, Coal to gas is an awfully lot smarter than burning coal directly..and uses the coal,as it precludes the necessity of sending 700b a year offshore to buy oil. Nuclear energy will be the final solution however, as it does not produce green house gases (which may or may not be as big a problem as some claim). we also have more energy reserves in natural gas in north america than the middle east has in oil... thats already usable as car and truck fuel. Phil scott |
#14
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 13, 6:01*am, "HeyBub" wrote:
phil scott wrote: Predictions: a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential businesses. * * * actual producers of goods, and essential services with *low overhead will mostly survive imo. actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) * *will get burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of business as we are already seeing. this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress payments in advance of progress... I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of my contr clients) Maybe, but your premise is flawed. There's plenty of credit, but the credit-worthy enterprises are not going for it. that is correct...and that is why you may very well be correct that issuing credit may not work in the end. My observation however is that is what govt is up to. I am not recommending nor condeming the approach... I do *think* that it might muddle us through however...'think' being the key word.. I can think of 50 caveats that could drive the mess in other directions as well. I do think however that this e money tactic is the current attempt.. Nobody, but nobody, with a gram of sense would be trying to expand their business with the uncertainty emanating from Washington. we are certainly on the same page there.... however I do observe there is no shortage of idiots in the world, especially graduated from the Ivy League schools... a brilliant lot, they brought us all those 'financial products' you know. Health insurance, cap-and-trade, tax increases, and turning terrorists loose in America are all possibilities and anyone faced with these potential business-destroying plans would be nuts to take such risks as building a new plant, hiring more employees, or launching a new product. myself and those I work with are not shrinking our businesses, we are definitely cutting our overhead, fixed labor costs, and other expenses... myself particularly operating with others in what have been called 'virtual companies'... previous called joint ventures. I no longer own a shop or have a pay roll. but I do the same sorts of business (industrial systems engrng and machinery fabrication(. I notice many hotel chains bulidnng new hotels though.... bless em.. Until these proposals are stamped out or get implemented so one can see the consequences, expect continued shrinkage in the economy. I dont disagree... esp for the USA, given our huge range of other issues, such as 80 million now reaching retirement and no way in hell to fund that. I share your views on the cap in trade policy as well, that does not translate however as some tend to do...that all liberal policy is bad, and all other policy is right. I think we have plenty of insanity and corruption to go around on either side of the fence...polarized views tend to blind a person to the insanity on his or her own side of the fence. To paraphrase a famous mantra: "It's the uncertainty, stupid!" Phil scott - Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - |
#15
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 13, 6:20*am, wrote:
On Mon, 13 Jul 2009 07:42:16 -0500, The Daring Dufas wrote: Stormin Mormon wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. Can you pay your taxes with imaginary money? TDD All money is imaginary. working for a living is not imaginary however...the medium of exchange employed, as it is used ONLY in that context is not imaginary.. you are referring to the extended spin put on the medium of exchange by the non working class, banking and etc. while the smear on these folks is warranted and gives a nice warm fuzzy feeling... the fact of 'work related money' that is what you must work for and spend to eat, makes *that money 'real'. not to say of course that gold etc is not a bit more real. more real than gold though, as is seen in times of famine, is good ground next to a water supply and some seed. that is unless you have a fondness for gold coin sandwiches. the economy on a personal level boils down to the ability to produce for others in a good economy, and the ability to produce for yourself in dire times.... regardless the medium of exchange and its perversions. Phil scott |
#16
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Jul 13, 8:03*am, windcrest wrote:
On Jul 12, 8:02*pm, phil scott wrote: It is a fact that if a nation PRINTS trillions of dollars to solve its financial problems, that hyper inflation and collapse will follow. However.... our US govt is NOT *printing any money,...... it is **issuing electronic credits***, that act as money, and may indeed stimulate the economy....this is assisted by low interest rates so people can afford to buy homes and build businesses etc... *little actual money is being printed though. all this is happening as deflation due to tough economic times takes the hot air out of the housing and stock markets etc. * the collapsing tax base will also force the bloat out of government... * * all if tgus us a *good thing. This deflation *will be painful and *could lead to total collapse.... unless enough trillions in added *credit are issued into the economy through the banks to keep things afloat... floating on a massive sea of *credit. * thats whats happening now... *its all just barely floating on a massive sea of credit... but it is doing this as the housing and stock market bubbles deflate. * thats a good and a necessary thing... so far we are deflating these bubbles, and our bloated state governments without total collapse. With luck that will be continued. ***** * again, this sea of funny money ***is not actually money*** (just credit), no extra currency is printed for most of it... the US Dollar may very well *regain its value, when the FED raises interest rates again after these bubbles hit bottom... * that will be tricky and it remains to be seen how that will be pulled off, especially given the 300 trillion dollars or so in hot air derivitives (insurance policies used to guarantee bad loans). it may be that as the large insurers, such as AIG go broke, file bankrupcy and defualt that a good percentage of this derivitive mess will simply evaporate *(like so many trillions in the worlds pension funds have already evaporated.) *as the work force gets more *desperate, and half of the bloated govt work force is laid off, and the rest got their bloated retirements cut by 70% or so, and the social security recipients are unfortunately cut back to starvation levels..... and we start manufacturing in the US again...we will recover...... it will be a nasty next 15 to 20 years (time span directly calculated from life expectancy tables) all of that is necessary...and will happen on the current path if we are lucky... depends on many things though, luck, oil prices, what we do about nuclear energy, and what other nations do etc.. *** when that stabilizes, my guess in 10 or 20 years of tight times, during which time the 80 million social security recipients will all be deader than hell... restoriing the national economy... * *full recovery will begin, that will take another 15 to 20 years... and we have seen these time frames recently in China and Russia. then.... interest rates will be raised again, restoring the value of the US dollar in world markets. * Investing in the mean time may be problematical. *Some high tech areas will pay off well. * The best investments will be in ones own operation, skill sets and networks. imo *** Support for this argument is my observation that the FED is willing to loan 'money' to the banks at 1% or less, and the banks are willing to loan at 4%... that tells you that those in charge have a solution for hyper inflation.. and I believe my memo here describes that solution... if relatively few *actual dollar bills are printed, paying the money back will be difficult and the 4% intrest will provide the banks with a real profit. why: (if the the treasury prints the actual bills, in excess of actual GDP, then the banks will lose, and collapse...thats why this thing is being done with credit to the banks... and not by putting dollar bills into peoples hands). These guys in charge of the money, as corrupt as they are, probably do know what they are doing in this aspect at least...they need to save their own asses as well as ours. *** Predictions: a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential businesses. * * * actual producers of goods, and essential services with *low overhead will mostly survive imo. actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) * *will get burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of business as we are already seeing. this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress payments in advance of progress... I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of my contr clients) Phil scott The problem is govt wont get smaller, the govt pensions/benefits will remain intact even for new govt workers, and govt growth will continue to outpace and tax the private sector economy. *Example, my property has declined in value 2006, 07 and 08 yet my actual property tax has increased and has no way to go down to match the declining value. Because the multipliers were also changed to ensure that govt still gets their cut even on taxed property that is declining in value well into the future. *When gas prices increased, govt did not rush in to lower the tax rate on gas, they just raked in more cash. *Now that gas prices are low and cars efficient, govt is looking to tax based on miles instead of gallons. *Govt will get its cut, no matter what the economy does, because they can. *I just wonder why they have left the Internet economy largely tax-free within the US.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - thats all accurate... except that as such a mess continues it collapses in on itself. then of course govt goes from total over bloat to zero or worse. (a 260 year cycle..approx) Phil scott |
#17
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How I think the economy will go and why
phil scott wrote:
On Jul 13, 4:52 am, Frank wrote: On Jul 12, 9:53 pm, "Stormin wrote: So, if I run my credit cards to the max, and keep some greenbacks at home, I should be just fine? After all, that's essentially what you said. I must disagree with your view of things. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org . Sounds mostly nutty to me too. What's the difference of money is printed or electronic? well.... you are surely correct... I oould be off base big time. Ive been wrong plenty of times before. Ive just posted my views. No need to reiterate them. a person might choose to notice that credit can be shrunk back to zero with high interest rates, in effect cutting the 'money' supply.... cash money cant be shrunk in that way...you cannot 'un-print' it. that was my observation. I am not asserting anything beyond that... I am not asserting that I am correct (especially since ive been wrong a lot in my views over my life span, and particularly since I cant recall a time when I or anyone else was exactly 100% correct in all aspects) this was just an observation... for anyone to consider if they want. .. It still spends. As for us social security recipients being dead, I'd like to kick his butt I am a social security recipient... I am almost 70.. most of us that age bracket will be deader than hell. many of us shortly...and then we will not be cashing any more social security checks, and that will bring viability back to the SS system. all that is simply how it is. and how it is.... is always relevant of course. The maturinty and thoughfulness i see on this NG though is impressive... you guys must be a pleasure in person. Phil scott We are contemporaries. I was thinking of all the baby boomer's now starting to cash in too. Not getting an SS increase this year because there is said to be no inflation is ridiculous and one of Obama's ploys to get us to pay for his follies. I just hope the rampant inflation does not hit us all at once and I don't see governments making the cutbacks they should be doing. This year, on fixed income, I expect to pay an extra $500 in taxes. Frank |
#18
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How I think the economy will go and why
phil scott wrote:
a person might choose to notice that credit can be shrunk back to zero with high interest rates, in effect cutting the 'money' supply.... cash money cant be shrunk in that way...you cannot 'un-print' it. that was my observation. You certainly can un-print money. I've been in the local Federal Reserve. They've got a machine the size of a bus that shreds money. It is strange to watch pallets of $100 bills disappearing. You want to say "Just let me take this little stack right here. No one will notice." -- Doug |
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How I think the economy will go and why
phil scott wrote:
Until these proposals are stamped out or get implemented so one can see the consequences, expect continued shrinkage in the economy. I dont disagree... esp for the USA, given our huge range of other issues, such as 80 million now reaching retirement and no way in hell to fund that. I share your views on the cap in trade policy as well, that does not translate however as some tend to do...that all liberal policy is bad, and all other policy is right. I think we have plenty of insanity and corruption to go around on either side of the fence...polarized views tend to blind a person to the insanity on his or her own side of the fence. Everybody agrees on goals, we differ on methods. Liberals tend to provide for the general welfare through the treasury, conservatives tend to promote the general welfare through the economy. Liberals tend to multi-task, they can solve a problem a minute (if everybody would just....). Conservatives tend to be single-focused, working on one problem at a time (first, let's kill all the terrorists...). As Ben Stein recently said: "When I think about the economy I think about a plump man who has just been hit by a truck while crossing a street and is in severely critical condition with internal bleeding. Instead of just stabilizing his hemorrhaging, the doctor decides that while the patient is unconscious, he might as well also do a face lift, some coronary bypasses and a stomach-stapling to keep him from gaining weight while he is recovering (if he does recover). After all, a crisis is not to be wasted. "The problem is that all these ambitious operations create too much of a burden for the human body to bear." He goes on to discuss the various proposals being touted. For example, why fark with the energy business? It's working. It's humming along without a glitch. It's providing jobs and dependable, affordable energy to everybody in the country - from electricity for your house to diesel for your farm tractor to gasoline for your car. Why take the chance of screwing it up at all, and especially why now? |
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How I think the economy will go and why
windcrest wrote:
When gas prices increased, govt did not rush in to lower the tax rate on gas, they just raked in more cash. Now that gas prices are low and cars efficient, govt is looking to tax based on miles instead of gallons. Govt will get its cut, no matter what the economy does, because they can. I just wonder why they have left the Internet economy largely tax-free within the US. Actually, when gas prices increased, government revenue went down. Way down. Because people started driving less. You're correct about them trying new techniques, though. They even have groups working on innovative new revenue streams. I heard rumors about one new scheme recently, and, while details are still sketchy, it is thought to involve blood. And stones. |
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How I think the economy will go and why
So, you might for example. Say that President Obama wants
less government control over things? Less size of government, and more freedom? I do seriously believe that liberals and conservatives differ widely in their goals. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "HeyBub" wrote in message m... Everybody agrees on goals, we differ on methods. Liberals tend to provide for the general welfare through the treasury, conservatives tend to promote the general welfare through the economy. |
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How I think the economy will go and why
"Stormin Mormon" wrote in
: So, you might for example. Say that President Obama wants less government control over things? Less size of government, and more freedom? HUH? Obama wants the exact opposite. I do seriously believe that liberals and conservatives differ widely in their goals. "HeyBub" wrote in message m... Everybody agrees on goals, we differ on methods. Liberals tend to provide for the general welfare through the treasury, conservatives tend to promote the general welfare through the economy. and people do far better under the conservatives. (when conservatives actually ARE "conservative") California is the prime example of socialism in the US. THAT is what Obama wants for the entire US. One big 3rd world country. -- Jim Yanik jyanik at kua.net |
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How I think the economy will go and why
Stormin Mormon wrote:
So, you might for example. Say that President Obama wants less government control over things? Less size of government, and more freedom? I do seriously believe that liberals and conservatives differ widely in their goals. You're right in one sense: conservatives generally want smaller government, but only as a means to an end. Liberals usually want larger government, but again, only as a means to an end. But there are exceptions to these general rules. As a conservative, I'm in favor of some branches of government getting bigger. The military, for example, so we can more efficiently kill our enemies, potential enemies, and the families of either. Conservatives also tend to favor more prisons. As an aside, I see where the governors of several states are about to loose several thousand prisoners because the state has budget troubles (Michigan, Massachusetts, and California come to mind). Say Michigan lets loose 20,000 prisoners before their time. Further, let's assume that 5,000 of these are Heroin addicts (there are 20,000 Heroin addicts in Detroit currently on the street). A Heroin addict will shoot one "paper" (1 gram) of Heroin a day, on average, with a normal street price of $100. Assuming these addicts are thieves of some stripe, they have to steal at least $400 worth of stuff to get their $100 fix (hey, the fence has to make a living). So, then, 5000 addicts released x $400/day stolen x 365 days a year = $730 million per year drained out of the economy of Michigan. One can quibble with the estimates - maybe only 1000 of the released prisoners are addicts or maybe the street price has gone down to $75 - but the order of magnitude should still be about right. Sure, it costs* a quite a bit to keep these folks locked up, but it costs society much more to turn them loose. ---------- * I think I saw where it costs Michigan $56/day to house an inmate. We, in Texas, do if for about $23. How can we do it so cheaply? Did you ever see the movie "Holes?" I think it was filmed at a Lone Star State institution... |
#24
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How I think the economy will go and why
"HeyBub" wrote:
Say Michigan lets loose 20,000 prisoners before their time. Further, let's assume that 5,000 of these are Heroin addicts (there are 20,000 Heroin addicts in Detroit currently on the street). A Heroin addict will shoot one "paper" (1 gram) of Heroin a day, on average, with a normal street price of $100. Assuming these addicts are thieves of some stripe, they have to steal at least $400 worth of stuff to get their $100 fix (hey, the fence has to make a living). So, then, 5000 addicts released x $400/day stolen x 365 days a year = $730 million per year drained out of the economy of Michigan. One can quibble with the estimates - maybe only 1000 of the released prisoners are addicts or maybe the street price has gone down to $75 - but the order of magnitude should still be about right. Sure, it costs* a quite a bit to keep these folks locked up, but it costs society much more to turn them loose. And if we legalized heroin, it would cost $5 (with tax) a day. They won't have to steal and we won't have to lock them up. * I think I saw where it costs Michigan $56/day to house an inmate. We, in Texas, do if for about $23. How can we do it so cheaply? Did you ever see the movie "Holes?" I think it was filmed at a Lone Star State institution... Apparently, there is only one air conditioned prison in Texas. A few more 100+ days and the prisoners will escape by melting and flowing under the door. -- Doug |
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How I think the economy will go and why
"phil scott" wrote in message ... It is a fact that if a nation PRINTS trillions of dollars to solve its financial problems, that hyper inflation and collapse will follow. However.... our US govt is NOT printing any money,...... it is **issuing electronic credits***, that act as money, and may indeed stimulate the economy....this is assisted by low interest rates so people can afford to buy homes and build businesses etc... little actual money is being printed though. all this is happening as deflation due to tough economic times takes the hot air out of the housing and stock markets etc. the collapsing tax base will also force the bloat out of government... all if tgus us a good thing. This deflation will be painful and *could lead to total collapse.... unless enough trillions in added *credit are issued into the economy through the banks to keep things afloat... floating on a massive sea of *credit. thats whats happening now... its all just barely floating on a massive sea of credit... but it is doing this as the housing and stock market bubbles deflate. thats a good and a necessary thing... so far we are deflating these bubbles, and our bloated state governments without total collapse. With luck that will be continued. ***** again, this sea of funny money **is not actually money*** (just credit), no extra currency is printed for most of it... the US Dollar may very well *regain its value, when the FED raises interest rates again after these bubbles hit bottom... that will be tricky and it remains to be seen how that will be pulled off, especially given the 300 trillion dollars or so in hot air derivitives (insurance policies used to guarantee bad loans). it may be that as the large insurers, such as AIG go broke, file bankrupcy and defualt that a good percentage of this derivitive mess will simply evaporate (like so many trillions in the worlds pension funds have already evaporated.) as the work force gets more desperate, and half of the bloated govt work force is laid off, and the rest got their bloated retirements cut by 70% or so, and the social security recipients are unfortunately cut back to starvation levels..... and we start manufacturing in the US again...we will recover...... it will be a nasty next 15 to 20 years (time span directly calculated from life expectancy tables) all of that is necessary...and will happen on the current path if we are lucky... depends on many things though, luck, oil prices, what we do about nuclear energy, and what other nations do etc.. *** when that stabilizes, my guess in 10 or 20 years of tight times, during which time the 80 million social security recipients will all be deader than hell... restoriing the national economy... full recovery will begin, that will take another 15 to 20 years... and we have seen these time frames recently in China and Russia. then.... interest rates will be raised again, restoring the value of the US dollar in world markets. Investing in the mean time may be problematical. Some high tech areas will pay off well. The best investments will be in ones own operation, skill sets and networks. imo *** Support for this argument is my observation that the FED is willing to loan 'money' to the banks at 1% or less, and the banks are willing to loan at 4%... that tells you that those in charge have a solution for hyper inflation.. and I believe my memo here describes that solution... if relatively few actual dollar bills are printed, paying the money back will be difficult and the 4% intrest will provide the banks with a real profit. why: (if the the treasury prints the actual bills, in excess of actual GDP, then the banks will lose, and collapse...thats why this thing is being done with credit to the banks... and not by putting dollar bills into peoples hands). These guys in charge of the money, as corrupt as they are, probably do know what they are doing in this aspect at least...they need to save their own asses as well as ours. *** Predictions: a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential businesses. actual producers of goods, and essential services with *low overhead will mostly survive imo. actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) will get burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of business as we are already seeing. this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress payments in advance of progress... I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of my contr clients) Phil scott Do you have anything to say about home repairs? No? be gone, troll plonk |
#26
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How I think the economy will go and why
Right! Obammy wants total socialism for the entire US.
Government control over everything. I'm glad you noticed that Libs and Cons do not want the same things. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "Jim Yanik" wrote in message ... HUH? Obama wants the exact opposite. "Stormin Mormon" wrote in : So, you might for example. Say that President Obama wants less government control over things? Less size of government, and more freedom? I do seriously believe that liberals and conservatives differ widely in their goals. "HeyBub" wrote in message m... Everybody agrees on goals, we differ on methods. |
#27
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How I think the economy will go and why
Would faux conservatives be "CINO"?
-- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "Jim Yanik" wrote in message ... and people do far better under the conservatives. (when conservatives actually ARE "conservative") |
#28
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How I think the economy will go and why
SteveB wrote:
"phil scott" wrote in message ... It is a fact that if a nation PRINTS trillions of dollars to solve its financial problems, that hyper inflation and collapse will follow. However.... our US govt is NOT printing any money,...... it is **issuing electronic credits***, that act as money, and may indeed stimulate the economy....this is assisted by low interest rates so people can afford to buy homes and build businesses etc... little actual money is being printed though. all this is happening as deflation due to tough economic times takes the hot air out of the housing and stock markets etc. the collapsing tax base will also force the bloat out of government... all if tgus us a good thing. This deflation will be painful and *could lead to total collapse.... unless enough trillions in added *credit are issued into the economy through the banks to keep things afloat... floating on a massive sea of *credit. thats whats happening now... its all just barely floating on a massive sea of credit... but it is doing this as the housing and stock market bubbles deflate. thats a good and a necessary thing... so far we are deflating these bubbles, and our bloated state governments without total collapse. With luck that will be continued. ***** again, this sea of funny money **is not actually money*** (just credit), no extra currency is printed for most of it... the US Dollar may very well *regain its value, when the FED raises interest rates again after these bubbles hit bottom... that will be tricky and it remains to be seen how that will be pulled off, especially given the 300 trillion dollars or so in hot air derivitives (insurance policies used to guarantee bad loans). it may be that as the large insurers, such as AIG go broke, file bankrupcy and defualt that a good percentage of this derivitive mess will simply evaporate (like so many trillions in the worlds pension funds have already evaporated.) as the work force gets more desperate, and half of the bloated govt work force is laid off, and the rest got their bloated retirements cut by 70% or so, and the social security recipients are unfortunately cut back to starvation levels..... and we start manufacturing in the US again...we will recover...... it will be a nasty next 15 to 20 years (time span directly calculated from life expectancy tables) all of that is necessary...and will happen on the current path if we are lucky... depends on many things though, luck, oil prices, what we do about nuclear energy, and what other nations do etc.. *** when that stabilizes, my guess in 10 or 20 years of tight times, during which time the 80 million social security recipients will all be deader than hell... restoriing the national economy... full recovery will begin, that will take another 15 to 20 years... and we have seen these time frames recently in China and Russia. then.... interest rates will be raised again, restoring the value of the US dollar in world markets. Investing in the mean time may be problematical. Some high tech areas will pay off well. The best investments will be in ones own operation, skill sets and networks. imo *** Support for this argument is my observation that the FED is willing to loan 'money' to the banks at 1% or less, and the banks are willing to loan at 4%... that tells you that those in charge have a solution for hyper inflation.. and I believe my memo here describes that solution... if relatively few actual dollar bills are printed, paying the money back will be difficult and the 4% intrest will provide the banks with a real profit. why: (if the the treasury prints the actual bills, in excess of actual GDP, then the banks will lose, and collapse...thats why this thing is being done with credit to the banks... and not by putting dollar bills into peoples hands). These guys in charge of the money, as corrupt as they are, probably do know what they are doing in this aspect at least...they need to save their own asses as well as ours. *** Predictions: a lot of folks will go broke in the financual turmoil...especially retailers and people with high overhead and into non essential businesses. actual producers of goods, and essential services with *low overhead will mostly survive imo. actual producers who extend too much credit to those about to go under, (that is about half the Malls and stores in the US) will get burnt...due to tight money, that will put many contractors etc out of business as we are already seeing. this is of course avoidable by structuring for low overhead operations...getting a sufficient advance on jobs and progress payments in advance of progress... I think those contractors will survive ... (this was a memo to one of my contr clients) Phil scott Do you have anything to say about home repairs? No? be gone, troll plonk Actually if BO's new energy bill goes through, it will have a lot to do with home repair because homeowners must comply with it. |
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How I think the economy will go and why
G. Morgan wrote:
Interesting logic, but they are not the only two options. The best possible outcome for everyone (the addict, society, and law enforcement (LE)) is to rehabilitate the addict. Another alternative is to put addicts in charge of unicorns. Back when I took my Advanced Narcotics class from the BNDD, our instructor put forth the following statistic: If you define "cured of addiction" as staying drug free for one year after release, the BEST "cure" rate for federal drug treatment facilities was six percent. I know their are perceived differences in how "liberals" and "conservatives" each may handle the problem. For instance, a typical conservative has strong Christian ties and may believe that a "faith based" rehabilitation works best, and discourage public funding for drug rehab. Conservatives are more likely to have the "lock 'em up and throw away the key" attitude towards addicts, considering them more criminals than people with a medical disease. A liberal is more likely to increase State and Federal funds for building more traditional style rehab facilities, and improve existing ones. A liberal is more likely to see the addict as a person with a genuine medical problem, and not a scourge on society. Agreed, but Typhoid Mary was BOTH a medical case and a scourge on society. But since your post was about money, not what's best for the addict, let's run some more numbers. Let's say it costs Michigan $35,000 /year to house a prisoner. If there are 5,000 heroin addicts in prison that's $175 million/yr. If the average prison sentence is 4 years then total cost to the government is: 4years x 5000 prisoners x $35,000 = $700 MILLION And at the end of the 4 years you have an ex-felon who no one will hire, has no skills, is understandably ****ed in the head mentally due to the terrible conditions, and IS STILL A DRUG ADDICT. He will steal again. Agreed, but the cost to society for the drug addict to remain on the loose is: 5000 addicts x $400/day in thefts x 365 days/year x 4 years = $2.9 billion ---- Rehab Estimates: $10,000 for a 60 day inpatient rehab stay. $10,000 /year for outpatient follow-up care + halfway house $15,000 for job training (trade school, college certificate programs) ------------ = $35,000 cost per year of A+ rehab. Let's say only half of them make it through rehab and become productive citizens. 2,500 still in prison = $350 Million over 4 years 2,500 in rehab for 1 year = $87.5 Million over 1 year So that's $700M - $350M - $87.5M = $262.5M savings per 4/yr. = $65.625M /year total savings to the taxpayer PLUS: You get to keep your car stereo and xBox more often. ----- "Let's say only half of them make it...." Dream on! "The proportion of drug users who successfully completed drug addiction treatment decreased from 5.8 percent in 1998 to 3.5 percent in 2002." http://alcoholism.about.com/b/2006/0...rates-drop.htm Other refrences I found on success rates were self-serving testimonials from drug treatment centers. Rather than take a chance on 50% becoming productive citizens (or merely 5%), wouldn't it be better to keep the whole 5,000 locked up for another year? |
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How I think the economy will go and why
obama is trying to do what voters elected him for...........
some sort of national health care for everyone to fix the busted economy to make us less war like and more a member of the world community, rather than a dictator........ its a big job, and cant be done instantly |
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How I think the economy will go and why
I didn't think the economy was busted. Taxes too high,
that's the problem. I don't want national health care like Canada (why do you think they come here for medical care? Cause socialism is so wonderful?) or England, the land of green teeth. I would rather be feared than loved. He's doing his best to do it instantly. Look at his first 100 days. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "bob haller" wrote in message ... obama is trying to do what voters elected him for........... some sort of national health care for everyone to fix the busted economy to make us less war like and more a member of the world community, rather than a dictator........ its a big job, and cant be done instantly |
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How I think the economy will go and why
In article ,
G. Morgan wrote: Rehab Estimates: $10,000 for a 60 day inpatient rehab stay. $10,000 /year for outpatient follow-up care + halfway house $15,000 for job training (trade school, college certificate programs) ------------ = $35,000 cost per year of A+ rehab. Let's say only half of them make it through rehab and become productive citizens. I have yet to see ANY program go above 25% and those are few, far between and seldom replicated. 2,500 still in prison = $350 Million over 4 years 2,500 in rehab for 1 year = $87.5 Million over 1 year So that's $700M - $350M - $87.5M = $262.5M savings per 4/yr. = $65.625M /year total savings to the taxpayer Of course the person is still an ex-con with lousy job prospects. -- Searching is half the fun: life is much more manageable when thought of as a scavenger hunt as opposed to a surprise party. Jimmy Buffett |
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How I think the economy will go and why
Frank wrote in
: SteveB wrote: Do you have anything to say about home repairs? No? be gone, troll plonk Actually if BO's new energy bill goes through, it will have a lot to do with home repair because homeowners must comply with it. Yes,you will not be able to sell your house if it doesn't comply with the new laws. -- Jim Yanik jyanik at kua.net |
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How I think the economy will go and why
Jim Yanik wrote:
Yes,you will not be able to sell your house if it doesn't comply with the new laws. Do you have a citation for this? Thanks, Doug |
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How I think the economy will go and why
Douglas Johnson wrote:
Jim Yanik wrote: Yes,you will not be able to sell your house if it doesn't comply with the new laws. Do you have a citation for this? Thanks, Doug We dug it out once a couple of weeks ago (it's tough to find in a 1,400 page bill) It's in the House version of the Cap-and-Trade bill, though not as onerous as it sounds. It originally applied to sales of ALL homes but was modified to apply only to NEW construction. It includes the gamut of things down to water heater insulation. Still, it's the beginning of a federal standard of energy efficiency and it's only a small additional step to impose it on the sale of existing homes. |
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How I think the economy will go and why
Wow, the Fed Monster is out of its cage! That's not in the
Constititon, that I can remember. -- Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "HeyBub" wrote in message ... We dug it out once a couple of weeks ago (it's tough to find in a 1,400 page bill) It's in the House version of the Cap-and-Trade bill, though not as onerous as it sounds. It originally applied to sales of ALL homes but was modified to apply only to NEW construction. It includes the gamut of things down to water heater insulation. Still, it's the beginning of a federal standard of energy efficiency and it's only a small additional step to impose it on the sale of existing homes. |
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:38:46 -0400, "Stormin Mormon"
wrote: Wow, the Fed Monster is out of its cage! That's not in the Constititon, that I can remember. What I understand is I can have Contract, under the Constitution. Cape-and-trade would prohibit that, OR at least fail to acknowledge my RIGHT to do so. Somebody needs to worry about TelePrompTer falling/failing and crashing. |
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How I think the economy will go and why
On Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:46:28 -0500, Douglas Johnson
wrote: .."If your home doesn't meet the national building code, you'll have to bring it up to code. Inspectors will determine if your property is in compliance." A search of bill shows nothing that I interpret that way. I've been checking, as I'm on a pension and a fixed income. "Eric Martell writes: Among other provisions that control nearly every aspect of our lives, the Waxman-Markley energy bill has a requirement that forces the entire United States to use a National Building Code based on the green building standards of California. Regardless of whether your house is in Miami, Florida or Bangor, Maine, you'll have to adhere to the standards used in a state that has one of the most moderate climates in the U.S. The construction industry is really going to suffer." I really don't know anybody in DC that speaks the truth. Things in Las Vegas will not work in Two Egg, Florida. A National Building Code? Does the bill say that? |
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How I think the economy will go and why
"HeyBub" wrote:
Douglas Johnson wrote: Jim Yanik wrote: Yes,you will not be able to sell your house if it doesn't comply with the new laws. Do you have a citation for this? Thanks, Doug We dug it out once a couple of weeks ago (it's tough to find in a 1,400 page bill) Actually, it's pretty easy. Right in the table of contents: "SEC. 304. GREATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDING CODES." It's in the House version of the Cap-and-Trade bill, though not as onerous as it sounds. It originally applied to sales of ALL homes but was modified to apply only to NEW construction. It includes the gamut of things down to water heater insulation. The section does not address water heater insulation or any other specific practice at all. It requires the establishment of national energy building codes that meet certain energy reduction targets by certain dates. It doesn't say how. I looked at the text of both the first-introduced bill and the one passed and sent to the Senate. Section 304 does not seem to differ significantly between the two. Still, it's the beginning of a federal standard of energy efficiency and it's only a small additional step to impose it on the sale of existing homes. It would be a HUGE step. There is a reason building codes apply to new construction and old houses are grand fathered in. It is not economically feasible to upgrade even a reasonably new (say 10 years old) to current code. My 60 year old barn would need new windows, roof structure, foundations, electrical, plumbing, insulation in the walls... The foundations alone would make it cheaper to tear down and rebuild. We would have to tear down most of the nation's housing stock. Now that's a stimulus package! -- Doug -- Doug |
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How I think the economy will go and why
Oren wrote:
I've been checking, as I'm on a pension and a fixed income. Check with primary sources, such as the bill itself. I'm convinced these bloggers have never seen it. "Eric Martell writes: Among other provisions that control nearly every aspect of our lives, the Waxman-Markley energy bill has a requirement that forces the entire United States to use a National Building Code based on the green building standards of California. Regardless of whether your house is in Miami, Florida or Bangor, Maine, you'll have to adhere to the standards used in a state that has one of the most moderate climates in the U.S. The construction industry is really going to suffer." He's wrong. Or at least he is seriously mis-interpreting the bill. Things in Las Vegas will not work in Two Egg, Florida. Sure won't. But the bill does not require anything like that. A National Building Code? Does the bill say that? The bill requires the development of a national energy building code that sets standards for saving energy relative to the current international building code, not California. -- Doug |
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