On Sat, 30 May 2009 04:30:41 -0700, RobertL wrote:

On 29 May, 23:09, Ed Sirett wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2009 07:26:03 +0100, David Hansen wrote:
On Mon, 25 May 2009 18:37:59 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:-

You only have to read the post that started this thread to see that
some, at least, actively promote that view.

I did read it. I didn't notice anything in that post which said that
oil would run out suddenly.

Quote:
Â*We have 4 years from now,
until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
most important for food for everybody of us. Unquote.

Admittedly it does not explicitly state that oil will have run out.
However 'not be enough' does rather imply run out,

Not at all. The supply will not fall to zero. The the price will
rise so that demand is reduced to matc hthe dimishing supply. that will
be very painful.


I don't think the changes will be as dramatic as the OP and some others
have stated or implied.

The supply falls the price goes up. There is pressure to adjust the
situation on BOTH the supply and the demand sides to ease the situation.

There are short medium and long term effects on both supply and demand:

Short term: More cost conscious usage, less wastage.
Stored reserves are sold.

Medium term: Better appliances/vehicles are purchased, policy decisions
to use less are made. OPEC countries increase output, output restarts
from "mothballed" wells where the production economics are now favoured.

Long term: Other sources of energy are chosen and developed.
New reserves are drilled (there's a stack of oil around the UK at $150/
barrel) , tar sands, deeper off shore and other less economic sources are
brought into operation.
Other ways of producing oil are developed.

The volatility of oil prices in recent years is more due to specific
factors like wars, refining capacity and market stampedes/speculation
than a genuine lack of supply (for the north of the world).

The idea that the world will be in crisis in few years is plain nonsense,
there are already enough crises anyway.

--
Ed Sirett - Property maintainer and registered gas fitter.
The FAQ for uk.diy is at http://www.diyfaq.org.uk
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