As long as the oil is there food can be produced. Once it runs
out hundreds of millions will starve to death

Bumper boro crop: But what next?
Ahsan Mansur


BANGLADESH is at the threshold of a massive bumper boro crop. Reports
from all across the country point to a potential boro output well
above the ambitious government target of 17.5 million tons. This is
certainly the best news for the country and the government besieged by
the surge in rice price all across the globe and the danger of food
shortage.

The excellent outlook for boro also comes on the heels of bumper wheat
and potato crops. This outlook also poses important policy
opportunities and challenges for the government to reestablish our
agriculture policy on a sustainable footing, consistent with the
objectives of making Bangladesh self-sufficient in food, alleviating
social and political tensions arising from the high food prices, and
at the same time eliminating emerging fiscal imbalances.

This forthcoming record rice output is the result of farmers'
whole-hearted response to the terms-of-trade (TOT) shock in favour of
rice producers and the strengthened support provided by various
government agencies. The favorable TOT shift is the most that the
farmers have experienced anytime in recent history.

The price increase of Tk 12-15 per kg of rice observed in local
markets should create additional income of Tk 21,000-26,250 crores
($3-3.75 billion) for the farmers based on the official target for
boro. Since both acres brought under boro production and the yield per
acre are projected to be higher than their targets, the actual amount
of the increase in income from boro should be significantly higher. If
we add to his boro crop an average level of production of aman and
aus, Bangladesh should expect to achieve self-sufficiency in food
grain. With total output exceeding 30 million tons, the amount of
potential total additional income for the farmers would range between
Tk. 36,000-45,000 crores ($5.1-6.4 billion) or 8-10 percent of GDP in
a full year.

High food prices