Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Mon, 14 Apr 2008 07:56:48 +0100, MM wrote:

Yep, and one of the neighbours said to me recently they'd just filled
their tank at 50p a litre and the driver said the industry reckoned it
would be a pound a litre by 2009.

If so that has very serious implications on the price of road fuels, think
160+p/l for diesel and 150p+/l for petrol. The base oil cost of all fuels
is pretty much the same, it's the the duty and VAT that give the price
differences.

Such massive increases in such a short time don't let the economy adjust.
Things just stop happening as people and companies can't afford to do them
any longer and make a profit.

150p/l is £6.80/gallon (ish). Some one on or near the minimum wage and
working 15 to 20 miles from home has to work for over an hour just to pay
for the fuel to get there. Another hour to pay the insurance, maintenace
etc. Probably another couple for deductions like Income Tax, NI & Pension.

Oh look it's lunchtime and this worker still hasn't earn't any money to
spend on *anything* else. Come the end of the day they might have £25 to
spend on other fuel bills, housing, food...

The drivers fear for their jobs as customers drop oil heating like a hot
potato.

But people still need to keep warm, what are they going to switch to? LPG
has increased, so has electricity. It's probably a fairly safe assumption
that mains gas is not available to the vast majority using oil for
heating. People are caught between a rock and hard place.

Opec refusing to pump any more.

This has me wondering they normally do pump more to control the price. Why
aren't they doing so?

They know, but aren't letting on, that reserves are getting low. Making
money whilst they still can.

They can't pump any more because they are already at full capacity, either
due to the various wars or oil fields running dry.

Its more a case of the fact that te dollar has fallen about 45% against
everything, except the pound,which is more like 30%..that in itself adds
40% to oil prcies..add a little speculation on that, and you get the 2:1
uplift in the last 2 years ..give or take.

However apart from that I agree with your analysis. It's been called a
'perfect storm' of the global economy: at the time when free money
suddenly vanishes - and interest rates should have gone up way before
to limit money supply - we run into a resource crisis as well.

Stagflation is almost inevitable. Governments can only adjust interest
rates and fuel taxation a little to lessen the shock, but in essence its
the end of the beginning of a new world order.

One in which transport and movement of physical goods will dominate
costs far more than it has done for years. Its probably the end of
casual commuting, and the start of teleworking in serious way.

And with luck the end of consumerism as well.

*WE* have no real recourse but coal and nuclear power stations. And to
become quite cunning about transport.

E.g. One thing that would help massively would be - say -
institutionalised hitch hiking. At say 10p a mile. If ou could stick
your thumb out at a bus stop or service station and be guranteed getting
a lift withing 5 minutes, it would be way more efficient than any public
transport scheme ever devised.

Make it politically incorrect to have an empty vehicle: and cut the
number of cars by a factor of around 4.And still carry the same passengers.

The cost benefit of ripping a house guts out an insulating it properly -
possibly with cheap government sponsored loans - would be overwhelming.
So it would happen.

Ditto the costs of repair versus renew.

Dityo recycling versus dumping.

The New Austerity. Frankly, I think people would be HAPPIER.