Retief wrote:


Yadda, yadda, yadda...

So the question is, "was it luck"?

Tim May claims it was not luck. That is, there was no luck involved,
but all skill.

But of course, ALL business has a certain aspect of luck. Unless Tim
had some insider information, that completely removed "luck" from the
equation.

Would Tim May be where he is, had Apple gone belly up? Likewise with
the rest of the list? No.

Tim was in the right place, at the right time, and with some careful
thought (to minimize, but never eliminate luck), he was successful in
his stocks. That's still what we call luck, Tim.

If it wasn't luck, then Tim could do the same, in any time period,
with any available stocks, and any (however limited) amount of
capital. I have my doubts on that...

Retief

Now I am not a Tim May fan but you have to realize that making money
in the stock market depends on a lot of factors and many of them
have noting to do with luck.

Did it involve luck buying Boeing when Boeing proposed building a
400 passenger airliner (The B747) that would carry passengers at
on half the seat mile cost of it's previous generation of aircraft.

Did it involve luck buying defense stocks in the 1980 when Ronald
Reagan was going to rebuild the American Military.

Did it involve luck buying Entertainment stocks (Carnival Cruse lines
and resorts ) with a big jump in disposable income of Seniors, coupled
with advances in general health of seniors and large number of Seniors
retiring in the 1980's and early 90's.

Did it involve luck investing in health care when our population is
getting older and most americans will use 80% of all the dollars they
spend for health care in their whole lives in the last year of life.

Dose it involve luck investing in power generation companies when our
yearly need of power is growing at a 9-15% per year rate yet we are not
building any new power plants.

Does it involve luck when investing in security companies, when this
war or terror mill go on for 20 years or more and International
business and their properties are going to be the primary targets of
terrorist organizations.

No making money in the stock market is a function of analyzing trends
that are occurring every day, realizing how the trends will effect
economic conditions and what will be the necessary economic assets
necessary to service the conditions.

No Tim May may have had some luck in picking his stocks but remember

"The race may not always go to the swiftest,
or the fight to the strongest.
Buts that's they way the smart money bets."

The Independent of Clackamas County, Oregon

"The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of
speeches and majority decisions ... but by iron and blood."

(Otto Von Bismarck, Speech, Sept. 30, 1862.)