"Gunner" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 25 Feb 2004 08:20:46 GMT, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

"Gunner" wrote in message
.. .

Ed? Comments?

The Fed usually telegraphs coming events IF you pay attention...



http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...e/2004/02/24/n
a
tional1014EST0556.DTL

I didn't follow your link but I've been following the Fed's statements.
If I
had anything worth adding I'd be rich, and not wasting my time here. g

Ed Huntress

Is a real estate crash coming in your opinion? Ive talked to several
people in the last couple weeks here in California who seem to think it
is..and they are running scared as they own a number of homes etc for
investments.

Nationwide? I don't think so. The amount that's been re-financed over the
last few years looks like a lot of debt overhead, but it was low interest
rates, and reasonably low PITI payments, that made it possible. In other
words, unless the economy gets softer people should be able to pay their
mortgages. As long as they can, and unless values really collapse, they'll
probably keep paying them.

In California? Who knows? Your real estate has been riding a bubble for a
couple of decades, and it appears to be a pretty big one in some locations.
If people panic, it would be just like any other bubble. Pop!

Out here, I think it's less likely. As for the lenders, they are overloaded
with debt, which probably is what your link talks about. That paper is
already being discounted as rates inch upward. Financial institutions that
have a lot of uninsured paper are very exposed and are vulnerable to an
economic downturn.

But, like I said, if I was really confident about it one way or the other
I'd find a way to speculate on it and get rich. g

Ed Huntress