"Jim Wilson" wrote in message
k.net...
Ed Huntress wrote...
Polls are snapshots that reflect opinions at one instant in time.

That is precisely what I'm getting at -- or what I'm doubting, to tell
the truth. I've never seen anything to substantiate that the polls have
any value, other than to give the media something to talk about as if
they had "authoritative" information -- yes, I'm laughing -- and to give
politicians a compass to pose on.

Well, don't make light of that compass. It's of interest to more than the
politicians. I find it interesting to see how events, speeches, and so on
influence the public mood.

In national politics, it only takes a slight change in attitudes to have a
really large consequence. Most races are close enough that the
non-idealogues, who vote for the person rather than for the party, tend to
determine the outcome of elections. So it's to be expected that the majority
will swing back and forth a bit during the course of a campaign, as it
unfolds.

But within the scope of what they measure, the polls we have today are
extraordinarily good. Notice that when one comes out significantly wrong,
it's big news. There's no comment when they get it right -- which is most of
the time.

Ed Huntress