"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
. net...
"Jim Wilson" wrote in message
k.net...
Ed Huntress wrote...

I see that the latest CNN/Gallup Poll has Kerry ahead of Bush by 53%
to
46%.

Hey, I've got a question. Does anybody know of a quantitative study on
how accurately the polls predict election day results? Something like,
before election day 2000, the polls said X, and on election day, the
voters said Y. I've never seen something like this.

There are some correlations between polls and results on the Web. But you
have to decide first what you're looking for. If the question is how
accurately do polls taken a month before an election predict the election
results, the answer is, very poorly...because the poll studied opinions a
month before the election, not the morning of election day.

Polls are snapshots that reflect opinions at one instant in time. That's
all.

Ed Huntress

I'd ban ALL political polling until the elections are over. Let everyone
vote their own mind without being swayed by what some poll says others are
doing.

Gary H. Lucas