phaeton wrote:

Everybody thought it would go on and that would sell for $400k
in less than a year, but instead it sold under repo after they were
forced to default for $100. Ugly!

Horrible!

But true...altho I realized I moved a set of numbers up
inadvertently...it was only something in the $200k when they bought it,
not $300k, but the net result is the same...after the oil bust, they
couldn't give it away--the only practical alternative was to let the
bank come get it.
...

If you're mildly interested, take a look at some of the places in the
towns of Cambridge, Columbus and Pardeevile. We're going in between
$90K and $135K, but as you can see there are a few houses lesser than
that (probably total dumps) and some McMansions that go up to the $500K
mark. Mind you, these towns are 20 minutes outside of Madison, but are
pretty small- 1100 residents for Cambridge, and about 4500 for
Columbus. Think this might be typical (such a disparity in home
prices in such a small place), or perhaps something to watch out for?

My slow dialup makes that impractical, but in such a small market
there's going to be a range. I was speaking mostly of larger
developments where one doesn't want to be the extreme--from the resale
standpoint, it makes a place much more difficult to move.

The more I read about housing bubbles, it seems like there is
definately something going on in places like Boston, NY and SoCal, but
not so much here in Madison. There are some folks that think one is
*starting*, i.e. house prices are just starting to show some
increasement. If that's the case:

1) Should I buy now
2) Should I wait the 3-5 years for it to go up then back down.

If I do #1 I understand that I can't get too excited about the value of
the house increasing steadily at some exhorbitant rate- it's only going
to come back down to a more 'sensible' level. My thoughts are that if
it goes up, then goes down, it is still going to go up again after
that- maybe a bit slower but much more stably. The longer you ride it
out the better off you'll be?

In general, that's true--but how long it might take to recover is
anybody's guess and would depend on many things that are impossible to
predict.

My personal feeling is if one doesn't over extend on a mortgage and has
reasonable expectations of returns, it is still a good time to
buy...interest rates are only going to go up for the forseeable future
and if one has good credit one should be able to still lock in a good
rate. I don't think this is a good time to get snookered in by the low
early rates w/ possible higher rates later on unless the limits are
quite well defined and you _fully_ understand the conditions and the
possible ramifications of any provision that you sign on to.

If, as you seem to think, housing in the area hasn't increased
exorbitantly in the area to date, that makes it a better bet at present
imo. I don't know much about Madison other than having been there some
nearly 30 years ago on recruiting trips for my then employer so I don't
know anything about the current economic patterns. If that looks stable
for the foreseeable future despite the obvious problems, that's also a
good sign. Major university towns tend to have a lot of tech and
related stuff that is relatively immune to major problems such as the
automakers, but there _can_ be real problems in those places, too.
Am I wrong?

Do I have a crystal ball?