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Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

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On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?


Yes, it is.

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 12:55 pm, GB wrote:

On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?


Yes, it is.

For what size of holding?

Maybe I should transfer some money...

Premium Bonds
 

On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say, and how recently it was
purchased. Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.
I've invested £3,000 over the last 18 months and haven't won anything.

Premium Bonds
 

"Peter Johnson" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is,

agreed

I'd say, and how recently it was
purchased. Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them,

agreed

so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

nonsense

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of winning
regardless of when it was purchased.


I've invested £3,000 over the last 18 months and haven't won anything.


agreed

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

That is about what you should statistically expect for a holding of
about £35,000.

--
Colin Bignell

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Expect just about 0.9% on a full holding, reducing as the holding falls
from the £50k maximum.

So if your holding is about £35k, your £25 per month is typical luck.

PA

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Not unusual. After 2 years you may find that the interval between
wins starts to extend.

10 Year gilts are now yielding 0.8% so if you end up winning
0.8% of your bonds value after a year you have had an average
result.

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say, and how recently it was
purchased. Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.
I've invested £3,000 over the last 18 months and haven't won anything.


A £2 bond that I bought in December 1965 won me £25 in 2014.
According to the RPI tables I would have needed to win £37 just
to get my spending power back though.

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 12:55, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?


Yes, it is.
Oh right so I'm not just lucky then?...

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 15:52, JNugent wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:55 pm, GB wrote:

On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?


Yes, it is.

For what size of holding?

Maybe I should transfer some money...

15k

Premium Bonds
 

Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them,

what does that mean?

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 16:53, nightjar wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

That is about what you should statistically expect for a holding of
about £35,000.

I'm ahead then

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of winning
regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any
other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases, the
chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K bonds
when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win than if you
bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate that
and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)




--
Cheers,

John.

/================================================== ===============\
| Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
| John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk |
\================================================= ================/

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On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate that
and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

The monthly prize fund is currently calculated at one twelfth of 1% of
all the bonds currently issued, ie the annual return is 1% on average.


Currently, the chance of a £25 prize is 1 in 34,500. That is for one bond.

Jim has 15,000 bonds, so he has been rather lucky to have won several
months in a row. With that holding, his chance of winning £25 in any
month is 35.3%.

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a
probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of
winning regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any
other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases, the
chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K bonds
when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win than if you
bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

I think not...

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate that
and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

....because your presumption is not correct.

Newly purchased bonds do not enter the draw until they have been held
for a month. This allows the total amount of prizes when they enter the
draw to be recalculated /every/ month to take account of the newly
purchased bonds (and any bonds cashed in, and the then current interest
rate on the fund). So eg if an extra 100,000 people each bought £50,000
bonds in November then by the time of December draw their £5 billion
would add an extra £50 million in prizes available. So the odds of any
bonds winning - new or old - would accordingly be maintained[1]

This is not just any lottery. This is a government lottery set up when
the civil service[2] still knew how to define and execute a fair process :)

[1] maintained but not /exactly/ the same as befo calculating the
odds is well beyond my ability given, among other things, the effect of
the fixed number of £1 million prizes. But the way that is fixed means
a net growth in the total number of bonds actually /increases/ the
likelihood of anyone individual bond winning something. (I think. It's
a very long time since I heard all this from NS&I folk. And wines have
been taken.)

[2] to be fair, I am confident some still could - e.g. ONS. I'm less
sure about some other depts.


--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

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On 05/06/2021 21:41, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

The monthly prize fund is currently calculated at one twelfth of 1% of
all the bonds currently issued, ie the annual return is 1% on average.


Currently, the chance of a £25 prize is 1 in 34,500. That is for one bond.

Jim has 15,000 bonds, so he has been rather lucky to have won several
months in a row. With that holding, his chance of winning £25 in any
month is 35.3%.

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a
probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

Premium Bonds
 

Why? Remember you have to get more now, as you are mot allowed, as you were
when I was younger to buy fewer at a time.
Brian

--

This newsgroup posting comes to you directly from...
The Sofa of Brian Gaff...

Blind user, so no pictures please
Note this Signature is meaningless.!
"tim..." wrote in message
...


"Peter Johnson" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is,

agreed

I'd say, and how recently it was
purchased. Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them,

agreed

so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

nonsense

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 07:07, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a
probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

He's being a bit cheeky I think.

Bill

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 08:23, williamwright wrote:
On 06/06/2021 07:07, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a
probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

He's being a bit cheeky I think.

It's a 1 in 200 chance being reported. You don't think a little
scepticism is in order?





Bill

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 07:07, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:41, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

The monthly prize fund is currently calculated at one twelfth of 1% of
all the bonds currently issued, ie the annual return is 1% on average.


Currently, the chance of a £25 prize is 1 in 34,500. That is for one
bond.

Jim has 15,000 bonds, so he has been rather lucky to have won several
months in a row. With that holding, his chance of winning £25 in any
month is 35.3%.

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a
probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

How else would you like me to describe it?

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 07:50 pm, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:52, JNugent wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:55 pm, GB wrote:

On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?


Yes, it is.

For what size of holding?

Maybe I should transfer some money...

15k

Thanks.

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 19:50, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:55, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?


Yes, it is.
Oh right so I'm not just lucky then?...


yes you are.

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 12:52, GB wrote:
On 06/06/2021 08:23, williamwright wrote:
On 06/06/2021 07:07, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has
a probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

He's being a bit cheeky I think.

It's a 1 in 200 chance being reported. You don't think a little
scepticism is in order?





Bill

no...why would I lie ?....
copied with bond numbers removed....
June 2021 £25
May 2021 £25
April 2021 £25
April 2021 £25
February 2021 £25
OK I missed March and got a double in April .....

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 12:54, GB wrote:
On 06/06/2021 07:07, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:41, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

The monthly prize fund is currently calculated at one twelfth of 1%
of all the bonds currently issued, ie the annual return is 1% on
average.


Currently, the chance of a £25 prize is 1 in 34,500. That is for one
bond.

Jim has 15,000 bonds, so he has been rather lucky to have won several
months in a row. With that holding, his chance of winning £25 in any
month is 35.3%.

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a
probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

How else would you like me to describe it?
Jim says he has...

Premium Bonds
 

"GB" wrote in message
...
On 06/06/2021 07:07, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:41, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate that
and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

The monthly prize fund is currently calculated at one twelfth of 1% of
all the bonds currently issued, ie the annual return is 1% on average.


Currently, the chance of a £25 prize is 1 in 34,500. That is for one
bond.

Jim has 15,000 bonds, so he has been rather lucky to have won several
months in a row. With that holding, his chance of winning £25 in any
month is 35.3%.

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a
probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

How else would you like me to describe it?

Fact.

More Heavy Trolling by the Senile Octogenarian Nym-Shifting Ozzie Cretin!
 

On Mon, 7 Jun 2021 03:40:10 +1000, Joey, better known as cantankerous
trolling senile geezer Rodent Speed, wrote:

FLUSH the trolling senile asshole's latest troll**** unread


--
Richard about senile Rodent:
"Rod Speed, a bare faced pig and ignorant ****."
MID:

Premium Bonds
 

On 05/06/2021 21:59, Robin wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of
winning regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any
other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases, the
chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K bonds
when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win than if
you bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

I think not...

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

...because your presumption is not correct.

erm, I think you just confirmed my presumption *is* correct - they do
adjust the payout to account for the changing number of active bonds.


Newly purchased bonds do not enter the draw until they have been held
for a month.Â* This allows the total amount of prizes when they enter the
draw to be recalculated /every/ month to take account of the newly
purchased bonds (and any bonds cashed in, and the then current interest
rate on the fund). So eg if an extra 100,000 people each bought £50,000
bonds in November then by the time of December draw their £5 billion
would add an extra £50 million in prizes available.Â* So the odds of any
bonds winning - new or old - would accordingly be maintained[1]



--
Cheers,

John.

/================================================== ===============\
| Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
| John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk |
\================================================= ================/

Premium Bonds
 

In article , Jim GM4DHJ ...
writes
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?
I had similar as long as I was putting money in. Since I stopped haven't
won anything. Friend had the same experience over the same period.
--
bert

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 20:38, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:59, Robin wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of
winning regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any
other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases,
the chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K
bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win
than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

I think not...

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

...because your presumption is not correct.

erm, I think you just confirmed my presumption *is* correct - they do
adjust the payout to account for the changing number of active bonds.


Yes.

And no :)

I should have made clear I was contesting your "from time to time".
That seemed to me to imply possible delay between changes in the total
number of bonds and changes in the prize fund. Indeed, without such
delay I don't see how you can get the result you predicted ("if you
bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to
win than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued"). A result that
is prevented by the month by month adjustment.

I think.

Hic.

--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 22:27, Robin wrote:
On 06/06/2021 20:38, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:59, Robin wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of
winning regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any
other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases,
the chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K
bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win
than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

I think not...

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

...because your presumption is not correct.

erm, I think you just confirmed my presumption *is* correct - they do
adjust the payout to account for the changing number of active bonds.


Yes.

And no :)

I should have made clear I was contesting your "from time to time".
ThatÂ* seemed to me to imply possible delay between changes in the total
number of bonds and changes in the prize fund.

Actually I was just highligting that I have not looked at the details in
a very long time (not held any bonds for 20 years) - so I did not know
what frequency they did the adjustments at.

Indeed, without such
delay I don't see how you can get the result you predicted ("if you
bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to
win than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued").Â* A result that
is prevented by the month by month adjustment.

Indeed - I was not suggesting that the claims that more recent ones are
more likely to win was actually correct - only suggesting a mechanism
that some might imaginine that would allow this to be true (hence the "I
suspect the logic is that"). Apologies if I did not express that very well.

I think.

The monthly adjustment sounds quite plausible... especially since its a
fully automated system.


--
Cheers,

John.

/================================================== ===============\
| Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
| John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk |
\================================================= ================/

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 18:40, Joey wrote:


"GB" wrote in message
...
On 06/06/2021 07:07, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:41, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

The monthly prize fund is currently calculated at one twelfth of 1%
of all the bonds currently issued, ie the annual return is 1% on
average.


Currently, the chance of a £25 prize is 1 in 34,500. That is for one
bond.

Jim has 15,000 bonds, so he has been rather lucky to have won
several months in a row. With that holding, his chance of winning
£25 in any month is 35.3%.

Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has
a probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.


what do you mean claims?????

How else would you like me to describe it?

Fact.
spot on...tee hee

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 22:55, John Rumm wrote:
On 06/06/2021 22:27, Robin wrote:
On 06/06/2021 20:38, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:59, Robin wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of
winning regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as
any other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued
increases, the chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if
you bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more
likely to win than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

I think not...

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

...because your presumption is not correct.

erm, I think you just confirmed my presumption *is* correct - they do
adjust the payout to account for the changing number of active bonds.


Yes.

And no :)

I should have made clear I was contesting your "from time to time".
ThatÂ* seemed to me to imply possible delay between changes in the
total number of bonds and changes in the prize fund.

Actually I was just highligting that I have not looked at the details in
a very long time (not held any bonds for 20 years) - so I did not know
what frequency they did the adjustments at.

Indeed, without such delay I don't see how you can get the result you
predicted ("if you bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you
would be more likely to win than if you bought 10K when there were
100M issued").Â* A result that is prevented by the month by month
adjustment.

Indeed - I was not suggesting that the claims that more recent ones are
more likely to win was actually correct - only suggesting a mechanism
that some might imaginine that would allow this to be true (hence the "I
suspect the logic is that"). Apologies if I did not express that very well.


Ah, I see. My mistake. I had thought that Jove had nodded. (As in you
thought that logic was, err, logical.) I should have known better. Sorry.



--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

Premium Bonds
 

On 06/06/2021 22:55, John Rumm wrote:
On 06/06/2021 22:27, Robin wrote:
On 06/06/2021 20:38, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:59, Robin wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of
winning regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as
any other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued
increases, the chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if
you bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more
likely to win than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

I think not...

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

...because your presumption is not correct.

erm, I think you just confirmed my presumption *is* correct - they do
adjust the payout to account for the changing number of active bonds.


Yes.

And no :)

I should have made clear I was contesting your "from time to time".
ThatÂ* seemed to me to imply possible delay between changes in the
total number of bonds and changes in the prize fund.

Actually I was just highligting that I have not looked at the details in
a very long time (not held any bonds for 20 years) - so I did not know
what frequency they did the adjustments at.

Indeed, without such delay I don't see how you can get the result you
predicted ("if you bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you
would be more likely to win than if you bought 10K when there were
100M issued").Â* A result that is prevented by the month by month
adjustment.

Indeed - I was not suggesting that the claims that more recent ones are
more likely to win was actually correct - only suggesting a mechanism
that some might imaginine that would allow this to be true (hence the "I
suspect the logic is that"). Apologies if I did not express that very well.


Ah, I see. My mistake. I had thought that Jove had nodded. (As in you
thought that logic was reality.) I should have known better. Sorry.



--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

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In article , Andrew
writes
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?
Depends how big your holding is, I'd say, and how recently it was
purchased. Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.
I've invested £3,000 over the last 18 months and haven't won anything.


A £2 bond that I bought in December 1965 won me £25 in 2014.
According to the RPI tables I would have needed to win £37 just
to get my spending power back though.

You've still got your 2 quid though :-)
--
bert

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On 06/06/2021 18:08, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

what do you mean claims?????

How else would you like me to describe it?
Jim says he has...

Oh, okay. I certainly accept that alternative.

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On 07/06/2021 11:40, GB wrote:
On 06/06/2021 18:08, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

what do you mean claims?????

How else would you like me to describe it?
Jim says he has...

Oh, okay. I certainly accept that alternative.

good man

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On 06/06/2021 17:03, critcher wrote:
On 05/06/2021 19:50, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:55, GB wrote:
On 05/06/2021 12:52, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:
Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?


Yes, it is.
Oh right so I'm not just lucky then?...


yes you are.
good

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"John Rumm" wrote in message
o.uk...
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of winning
regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any other
bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases, the chances
of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K bonds when there
were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win than if you bought 10K
when there were 100M issued.

No

because the prize fund will be 10 times bigger

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate that
and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)


well of course

the increase due to there being more bonds bought (and thus money invested)
is automatic

changes due to changes in underling interest rates is done less often