I want to point out that many professional prognosticators, wanting to
be famous, tend to make outrageous predictions such as "collapse",
"hyperinflation", and so on. Such pronouncements receive more
attention than the more modest ones, for obvious reasons.

Since these people live on attention, offering extreme forecasts is a
very natural thing for them to do. The press will not talk about
someone who "forecasts 8.5% annual inflation for the next decade". Yet
something like that is much more likely to happen, than outright
hyperinflation (which is defined variously, but always more than 30%
per annum).

In addition, some people are very political and tend to not be
objective. For example, if they hate the current president, they think
that all sorts of improbable ills will befall the country, etc.

The result is that they are gullible and prone to be confused by these
prognosticators. Currently some Republicans think in this way.

If we return back to the boring reality, the United States has a
stable political system, somewhat independent Federal reserve,
powerful interests that oppose hyperinflation, and most importantly, a
large, but still manageable amount of debt.

Some inflation is very possible (I am expecting some inflation and
refinanced for a 30 year fixed mortgage at 4.875%), and would
repudiate the debt effectively, but I regard prognoses of
hyperinflation as fear mongering or ignorance that is not based on
established facts.

i

On Tue, 15 Sep 2009 21:57:55 -0500, Ignoramus11401 wrote:

I want to point out that many professional prognosticators, wanting to be
famous, tend to make outrageous predictions such as "collapse",
"hyperinflation", and so on. Such pronouncements receive more attention
than the more modest ones, for obvious reasons.


Well then, let's just wait and watch, and see what actually happens in the
next few years under the Obama administration. :-

Cheers!
Rich

On 2009-09-16, Richard the Dreaded Libertarian wrote:
On Tue, 15 Sep 2009 21:57:55 -0500, Ignoramus11401 wrote:

I want to point out that many professional prognosticators, wanting to be
famous, tend to make outrageous predictions such as "collapse",
"hyperinflation", and so on. Such pronouncements receive more attention
than the more modest ones, for obvious reasons.


Well then, let's just wait and watch, and see what actually happens
in the next few years under the Obama administration. :-

I think that we have no choice but to do what you said.

My prediction is that there will not be hyperinflation, although a
substantial increase in inflation (under 20%) is possible.

i

Ignoramus31381 wrote:
On 2009-09-16, Richard the Dreaded Libertarian wrote:
On Tue, 15 Sep 2009 21:57:55 -0500, Ignoramus11401 wrote:

I want to point out that many professional prognosticators, wanting to be
famous, tend to make outrageous predictions such as "collapse",
"hyperinflation", and so on. Such pronouncements receive more attention
than the more modest ones, for obvious reasons.

Well then, let's just wait and watch, and see what actually happens
in the next few years under the Obama administration. :-

I think that we have no choice but to do what you said.

My prediction is that there will not be hyperinflation, although a
substantial increase in inflation (under 20%) is possible.

i


Is everybody going to pay back their bail out money real quick?