"Ignoramus20263" wrote in message
...
On 2009-02-15, John R. Carroll jcarroll@ubu wrote:

I have been wrong often, but I would think that 2010 is a reasonable
estimate.


We'll see.

Sure.
Not much choice in the matterg and I'm not predicting a smooth transition
in every case.
The Gunner's of the world are just going to be toast. Uneducated,
semi-skilled labor has finally ratcheted itself down to the point of being
quaint. There isn't anything personal in that assesment, reality and the
markets are speaking for themselves. GM is a perfect example. They have
finally become small enough to fail without making a crater and that is
probably what will happen one way or another. Who, after all, needs buggy
whips - even high tech ones? Those will end up unemployed, possibly
chronically so.

Keep in mind that there are other countries involved, the
assumption of continued willingness of foreigners and US investors to
buy Treasuries may be questioned, and so on. If the Treasury bubble
bursts in a bad way, we may see a lot more trouble.

I can tell you for a fact that the Japanese have pledged a trillion dollars
and we have agreed to help them drive down the value of their currency to
the point where their production for export gets real relief. That's first
hand.
Savers that they are, they have the cash and then some and after their 90's
debacle, they are anxious to the point of fearful desperation.

JC

On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 10:09:04 -0800, Gunner Asch
wrote:
snip
We have a second wave of subprimes coming do in the next several months
from what I understand, and a credit card implosion on the horizon as
people who have been funding their shotfalls on their cards all hit the
absolute limits and go into default
snip
------------------
While there may indeed be a second wave of sub-prime/alt-A
defaults, the big tsunami on the horizon appears to be the wave
of commercial real estate defaults, especially shopping plazas.

Not only has there been a substantial downturn in retail
activity, but almost all commercial real estate mortgages are
short term ( 3-5-7 year periods common) with a balloon at the end
that are now coming due. The problem is that even the viable
projects are having extreme difficulty "rolling their notes
over," with much higher interest required when these can be
refinanced at all, which in turn makes the currently viable
projects into cash sinks and zombies with negative cash flow.

You also appear to be correct about the credit cards, and the
recent moves by the banks, many of whom got TARP rescue money, to
raise credit card rates to loan shark levels, and other wise
restrict terms such as increasing minimum payments, have not
helped things. While this may generate a few more dollars now,
it has generated huge amounts of ill-will, makes consumer
default/bankruptcy even more likely, and further restricts
consumer spending, on which so many hopes are based.

A third item of major size, albeit far behind real estate
mortgages, are vehicle loans. A significant fraction are "upside
down," with far more owed on the vehicle than it is worth,
especially as these were extended term loans of 48 months or
more. Additionally many of these were "zero" or below market
rate loans, with the provision that if any payments were
missed/late, the interest rate resets to above market, indeed
usurious, levels, which is yet another "kick in the head" to the
consumer that just lost their job, along with the credit card
"squeeze." A complicating factor are the large number of
expiring car leases, where the residual value of the vehicle is
far below the assumption that was made when the lease was signed.
In this case the leasor eats the shortfall, but in many cases
these were the captive finance arms such as GMAC and Chrysler
Credit, which are in trouble anyhow.

All of these, plus many more such as student loans, form the
basis for huge number of [take a deep breath here] "synthetic
structured collateralized debt obligations," or CDOs which are
not only the major components of toxic "assets" causing the
banking troubles, but which are about to become even more
"toxic." When this is combined with the Credit Default Swap
[CDS] "default insurance" (derivative) liabilities, very
significant problems can easily be projected, far beyond current
levels.

This will only exacerbate the following situation
--------------------
Large U.S. banks on brink of insolvency, experts say
By Steve Lohr
Published: February 13, 2009

Some of the large banks in the United States, according to
economists and other finance experts, are like dead men walking.

A sober assessment of the growing mountain of losses from bad
bets, measured in today's marketplace, would overwhelm the value
of the banks' assets, they say. The banks, in their view, are
insolvent.

None of the experts' research focuses on individual banks, and
there are certainly exceptions among the 50 largest banks in the
country. Nor do consumers and businesses need to fret about their
deposits, which are insured by the U.S. government. And even
banks that might technically be insolvent can continue operating
for a long time, and could recover their financial health when
the economy improves.

But without a cure for the problem of bad assets, the credit
crisis that is dragging down the economy will linger, as banks
cannot resume the ample lending needed to restart the wheels of
commerce. The answer, say the economists and experts, is a
larger, more direct government role than in the Treasury
Department's plan outlined this week.
snip
---------------------
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/...3insolvent.php

FWIW -- this also appears to be the case for large numbers of
European banks.

A major complicating factor, both in Europe and the US, is the
inability or unwillingness of the financial institutions to "come
clean" about their assets and liabilities, which in the past has
generally caused the regulators to seize control, determine the
facts, and clean-up or liquidate as required.

Indeed, Germany appears to be in the process of doing this with
one of their largest banks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/priva...rivate Equity

While overdue, this action will trigger the CDS derivatives, and
as the Hypo bank stock/notes are some of the "assets" for other
banks, hedge funds, and venture capital pools, many in the US,
this may well trigger another cascade of defaults, when these are
written down to market [i.e. zero].

The global financial system is far too incestuous,
interconnected, and arcane/baroque for stabilty/safety.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 11:38:12 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:


"Ignoramus20263" wrote in message
...
On 2009-02-15, Gunner Asch wrote:
On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 06:38:03 -0800 (PST), "
wrote:

On Feb 14, 9:08 pm, Gunner Asch wrote:


1932 was probably the worst year of the Great Depression....so we
havent
hit bottom yet by any means

Gunner

Hard to say if we have bottomed or not. The stock market has stayed
fairly level during the last three months. Nucor is up about 10% in
the last three months. GE is down about 25%. Danaher is flat.

The housing markets vary a lot depending on where you are and how hot
the market was. As Ed said the housing market is stable in his
neighborhood in NJ.

Housing in California continues to drop like a stone down a hillside.

My guess is that we are near the bottem, but are likely to not move up
much anytime soon. The local government is looking at raising taxes,
which will keep a damper on things. The same thing will happen all
around the country, but will be worse where the government expanded in
accordance with Parkinsons Law. Or at least it corrolary. Government
expands to spend all the tax revenues in boom years and raises taxes
during any busts.

We have a second wave of subprimes coming do in the next several months
from what I understand, and a credit card implosion on the horizon as
people who have been funding their shotfalls on their cards all hit the
absolute limits and go into default

Ive been told by someone who is very very smart on the subject..that we
wont hit bottom until 2010 or early 2011.

I hope he is wrong...but so far..he hasnt been.


I have been wrong often, but I would think that 2010 is a reasonable
estimate.

The bottom for whom?
We are stumbling along the bottom right now Ig, at least as far as I'm
concerned.
Foreclosures are beginning to moderate and job losses will taper off over
the next quarter. In fact, mortgages that reset are providing a stimulus
effect of their own as payments drop.

Equities will bump along between 8 and 9 thousand and the S&P 500 will
decline to 670 or so but neither are very important at this point.
Most of the gas is out of the tank today. Private equity is starting to get
itchy and once regulatory reform surfaces in Congress we ought to see things
pop. Tim Gietner is going to be federalizing the banking system throughout
2009/2010. This "stress test" stuff is just eye wash that will be used to
explain and justify that course of action to the American public.

Sounds like more FDR bank holiday.

The bush administration never understood the value in explaining their
activities, they even resented the implication that they ought to do so, and
it's something that Gietner learned and has always been an Obama strength.
Americans quit following Bush because he was a poor leader on the one hand
and his admionisration produced a nearly unmittigated string of disasters on
every front. America didn't follow Bush the Leader into hell, they were
mislead there over the course of eight years and were dragged kicking and
screaming at the end.

For better or worse, in three weeks the new administration has rolled out
Federal policy through the Treasury and Fed totalling three trillion dollars
and gotten an eight hundred billion dollar social spending bill through
Congress which is only a start. No countries were invaded, no lives lost and
if that isn't leadership of a very high order, I don't know what is. That's
the real reason I see this as the actual bottom. All that remains is for the
detritus to settle and that ought to be complete no later than September.

I hope you are right -- see other positing in this thread for my
contrarian view that things are about to get even more
"interesting," and the reasons.

JC


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:33:50 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

snip
The Gunner's of the world are just going to be toast. Uneducated,
semi-skilled labor has finally ratcheted itself down to the point of being
quaint. There isn't anything personal in that assesment, reality and the
markets are speaking for themselves.
snip
This appears to be a very short sighted and provincial view of
the world.

The continued production of "real" goods with "real" "value
added" depends heavily on the Gunners of the world, keeping
things running, an operational replicator not having yet been
invented [and even then someone will have to be available to keep
the replicators running].

There is additionally the problem of the definition of
"education" and "skills." For the "Gunner's of the world" these
are very real, albeit not learned in college, and are of the type
that puts dirt under your fingernails.

It can be plausibly argued that GM's and Chrysler's problems are
in the main not caused by their Gunner's, who have had to
[physically and metaphorically] hay wire and racer tape
everything in sight to keep the plants operating , but rather the
"suits w/ MBAs and clean hands" responsible for the marketing
strategies, product developments, and financial decisions that
are about to put an entire American economic sector into chapter
7.

In other areas, the "grunts" that did the work at WaMu, Citi,
BoA, AIG, etc. did not cause the problems.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

wrote in message
...
On Feb 14, 9:08 pm, Gunner Asch wrote:


1932 was probably the worst year of the Great Depression....so we havent
hit bottom yet by any means

Gunner

Hard to say if we have bottomed or not. The stock market has stayed
fairly level during the last three months. Nucor is up about 10% in
the last three months. GE is down about 25%. Danaher is flat.

The housing markets vary a lot depending on where you are and how hot
the market was. As Ed said the housing market is stable in his
neighborhood in NJ.

My guess is that we are near the bottem, but are likely to not move up
much anytime soon. The local government is looking at raising taxes,
which will keep a damper on things. The same thing will happen all
around the country, but will be worse where the government expanded in
accordance with Parkinsons Law. Or at least it corrolary. Government
expands to spend all the tax revenues in boom years and raises taxes
during any busts.

Dan

No, it's not hard to say that we haven't hit bottom yet. Try it. The
500,000 people who lost their jobs last month will be in dire straits in one
to six months, and THEN will see the people that lose their jobs THIS month.
I think it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I hope it
gets better soon, as I have two houses I want to dump, and am sitting on $1
million right now that I would like to liquidate.

Steve

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:33:50 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

snip
The Gunner's of the world are just going to be toast. Uneducated,
semi-skilled labor has finally ratcheted itself down to the point of being
quaint. There isn't anything personal in that assesment, reality and the
markets are speaking for themselves.
snip
This appears to be a very short sighted and provincial view of
the world.

The continued production of "real" goods with "real" "value
added" depends heavily on the Gunners of the world, keeping
things running, an operational replicator not having yet been
invented [and even then someone will have to be available to keep
the replicators running].

The current generation of folks that make thinjgs work resemble a guy who
infrequently posts here as "Anthony".
Well educated, technically adept, and hard working.

Anything that can be fixed with the bang of a wrench is either headed for a
musuem of the scrap heap.
Well, there are collectors and recreational guys.


There is additionally the problem of the definition of
"education" and "skills." For the "Gunner's of the world" these
are very real, albeit not learned in college, and are of the type
that puts dirt under your fingernails.

Thirty years ago maybe.
Not today, and certainly not in the future.


It can be plausibly argued that GM's and Chrysler's problems are
in the main not caused by their Gunner's,

That class of labor was something broomed in the seventies George.
At least at the skilled level.


JC

"John R. Carroll" wrote in message
...

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:33:50 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

snip
The Gunner's of the world are just going to be toast. Uneducated,
semi-skilled labor has finally ratcheted itself down to the point of
being
quaint. There isn't anything personal in that assesment, reality and the
markets are speaking for themselves.
snip
This appears to be a very short sighted and provincial view of
the world.

The continued production of "real" goods with "real" "value
added" depends heavily on the Gunners of the world, keeping
things running, an operational replicator not having yet been
invented [and even then someone will have to be available to keep
the replicators running].

The current generation of folks that make thinjgs work resemble a guy who
infrequently posts here as "Anthony".
Well educated, technically adept, and hard working.

Anything that can be fixed with the bang of a wrench is either headed for
a musuem of the scrap heap.
Well, there are collectors and recreational guys.


There is additionally the problem of the definition of
"education" and "skills." For the "Gunner's of the world" these
are very real, albeit not learned in college, and are of the type
that puts dirt under your fingernails.

Thirty years ago maybe.
Not today, and certainly not in the future.


It can be plausibly argued that GM's and Chrysler's problems are
in the main not caused by their Gunner's,

That class of labor was something broomed in the seventies George.
At least at the skilled level.

They need them in China. Eventually, maybe, in Africa.

--
Ed Huntress

On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 14:46:39 -0600, F. George McDuffee
wrote:

While there may indeed be a second wave of sub-prime/alt-A
defaults, the big tsunami on the horizon appears to be the wave
of commercial real estate defaults, especially shopping plazas.

Not only has there been a substantial downturn in retail
activity, but almost all commercial real estate mortgages are
short term ( 3-5-7 year periods common) with a balloon at the end
that are now coming due. The problem is that even the viable
projects are having extreme difficulty "rolling their notes
over," with much higher interest required when these can be
refinanced at all, which in turn makes the currently viable
projects into cash sinks and zombies with negative cash flow.



One simply drives around So. California to see literally thousands of
closed strip malls, empty Targets, empty commercial properties of all
sorts...that have been empty for a number of years. Perhaps here and
there one may find a nail or cigarette shop open in an otherwise empty
plaza. Office buildings everywhere have banners proclaiming Space
Available.

One could make a decent living in So Cal simply printing "For Lease
Commerical Property" signs

And this has been getting worse for at least 10 yrs

Gunner

"Upon Roosevelt's death in 1945, H. L. Mencken predicted in his diary
that Roosevelt would be remembered as a great president, "maybe even
alongside Washington and Lincoln," opining that Roosevelt "had every
quality that morons esteem in their heroes.""

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...

"Tim Wescott" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:32:51 -0500, Buerste wrote:

When I talked to my friend that has a company that TiN coats cutting
tools today, he said that after a poor December and a so-so January, his
February is booming! I hope it's a good sign to see industrial cutting
tools in high demand.

In every recession I've ever lived through (and even from what little I
know of The Big One in the '30s), life has always gone on.

At some point people get tired of not buying stuff, and companies realize
that sitting still in a dark room isn't going to save them.

I suspect that we'll see some realignment in the economy if the Dems
don't get too enthusiastic (there was actually a Rick Lowry piece in the
paper today that I agreed with, on just this topic), but I very much
doubt that we're all going to sit shivering and starving on the streets
outside of our former homes while the sun slowly goes out.

--
http://www.wescottdesign.com

And, as there was during the Big One, there will be an endless stream of
tenured and degreed naysayers who keep saying that the best thing to do is
nothing, that it will all work out in the end.

Fortunately for us all, no one in a major decision-making capacity
listened to them. Except that FDR did take them seriously for a short time
around 1935, which promptly drove us into an even deeper wave of
depression.

If you read some analysis by any economist over 50 who is associated with
the Univ. of Chicago, or if their biography says anything about the
Austrian School or the American Enterprise Institute, Lew Rockwell or the
Mises Institute, Cato, or George Mason or Loyola Universities, turn a deaf
ear, because they're the voodoo economists who got us here in the first
place.

Russ Roberts, for example.
http://economics.gmu.edu/faculty/rroberts.html

Although I like the podcasts EconTalk and Cafe Hayek, he has some good
guests on, not all of them right-wing.

On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 13:52:01 -0500, the infamous "Buerste"
scrawled the following:


"Larry Jaques" wrote in message
.. .
On Sat, 14 Feb 2009 14:01:40 -0500, the infamous "Buerste"
scrawled the following:

In November and December, I didn't have the huge orders from my usual
customers. I know their buying patterns and MRP systems better than they
do
and I knew they were chewing through their safety stock even though their
buyers were on notice to cut back on purchases. All my stuff to them goes
into the mid-range restaurants. I knew that fast-food was actually on an
upswing, high-end eateries were only taking a single digit hit, and my
market mid-range restaurants were about the same. So, I decides to keep
producing at normal production rates and pack the rafters with product.
Well, imagine my smile when my customers call in a panic because their
shelves are bare! I've been able to ship from stock and be a hero! I
hope
they don't keep expecting the zero lead time, I can't afford this
inventory
level forever. I'll bet they will want to rebuild their safety stock all
at
once and put me behind the eight-ball having to run overtime and weekends.
Idiots!

Don't fret. Just charge (or delay) accordingly, Tawm, while reminding
them that "Your lack of planning is not necessarily my crisis." You
put yourself in a better position by calling, saying that you noticed
that their product quantities are down, etc, and to order now before
the 2009 price increase/delays" etc.

--
If we all did the things we are capable of doing,
we would literally astound ourselves.
-- Thomas A. Edison

It's hard to get price increases.

Yeah, I grok that.


I always get notice that I must decrease
my prices 10%. They do that to blunt any yearly price increases, it's just
SOP for them. We negotiate and they usually cave at +3-5% increases and we
promise quality and service.

Right, but you might nudge 'em a bit on the immediate resupply issue,
especially if you have to go to extended or double shifts. They'd
understand, especially if some of them have the same customer base.
Whoever gets stock quicker gets the sales, regardless of cost.


It's a dance. Our niche is to small for the
Chinese to get into and our costs are too low, due to our technology, to
attract another domestic manufacturer.

You mean "our costs are too high", don't you? (margins too low)

There are only two other
manufacturers of flat-wire products left in the states. They are only a
small fraction of our capacity and their technology is generations behind
us. One of these two will hopefully cease production on those items and buy
from us, we are already in negotiations.

Ooh, good deal! Best of luck in that endeavor.


I'll soon have the next machine on
line that should see a 30% increase in productivity. I know, it's the same
machine I said would come on-line months ago. It'll be at least another
month. Assuming all the new technology works as advertised, we'll retrofit
the other machines.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. We've already heard _that_ story. g G'luck.


--
I'm still waiting for another sublime, transcendent flash of adequacy.
--Winnie of RCM

On Sat, 14 Feb 2009 23:56:19 -0500, Wes wrote:
snip
I was remarking to Georges concern that there isn't funds set aside for oversight. If you
remember pallets of money was shipped into Iraq with loose standards on accounting for it.
That lead to cries of where did the money go.
snip
======
Fallout continues on this.

That much money with these few controls raised "moral hazzard" to
a whole new level.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/...ef=a1anews.com
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/...n4767378.shtml
http://article.wn.com/view/2009/02/1...n_US_officers/


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

"ATP*" wrote in message
...

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...

"Tim Wescott" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:32:51 -0500, Buerste wrote:

When I talked to my friend that has a company that TiN coats cutting
tools today, he said that after a poor December and a so-so January,
his
February is booming! I hope it's a good sign to see industrial cutting
tools in high demand.

In every recession I've ever lived through (and even from what little I
know of The Big One in the '30s), life has always gone on.

At some point people get tired of not buying stuff, and companies
realize
that sitting still in a dark room isn't going to save them.

I suspect that we'll see some realignment in the economy if the Dems
don't get too enthusiastic (there was actually a Rick Lowry piece in the
paper today that I agreed with, on just this topic), but I very much
doubt that we're all going to sit shivering and starving on the streets
outside of our former homes while the sun slowly goes out.

--
http://www.wescottdesign.com

And, as there was during the Big One, there will be an endless stream of
tenured and degreed naysayers who keep saying that the best thing to do
is nothing, that it will all work out in the end.

Fortunately for us all, no one in a major decision-making capacity
listened to them. Except that FDR did take them seriously for a short
time around 1935, which promptly drove us into an even deeper wave of
depression.

If you read some analysis by any economist over 50 who is associated with
the Univ. of Chicago, or if their biography says anything about the
Austrian School or the American Enterprise Institute, Lew Rockwell or the
Mises Institute, Cato, or George Mason or Loyola Universities, turn a
deaf ear, because they're the voodoo economists who got us here in the
first place.

Russ Roberts, for example.
http://economics.gmu.edu/faculty/rroberts.html

Although I like the podcasts EconTalk and Cafe Hayek, he has some good
guests on, not all of them right-wing.

Aha! Russ Roberts and Don Boudreaux, the Austrian archdukes of the George
Mason coven of Hayekians! g

I've heard he's entertaining and a good read. I shouldn't wisecrack about
him because I've never read or heard his stuff.

--
Ed Huntress

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...

"ATP*" wrote in message
...

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...

"Tim Wescott" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:32:51 -0500, Buerste wrote:

When I talked to my friend that has a company that TiN coats cutting
tools today, he said that after a poor December and a so-so January,
his
February is booming! I hope it's a good sign to see industrial
cutting
tools in high demand.

In every recession I've ever lived through (and even from what little I
know of The Big One in the '30s), life has always gone on.

At some point people get tired of not buying stuff, and companies
realize
that sitting still in a dark room isn't going to save them.

I suspect that we'll see some realignment in the economy if the Dems
don't get too enthusiastic (there was actually a Rick Lowry piece in
the
paper today that I agreed with, on just this topic), but I very much
doubt that we're all going to sit shivering and starving on the streets
outside of our former homes while the sun slowly goes out.

--
http://www.wescottdesign.com

And, as there was during the Big One, there will be an endless stream of
tenured and degreed naysayers who keep saying that the best thing to do
is nothing, that it will all work out in the end.

Fortunately for us all, no one in a major decision-making capacity
listened to them. Except that FDR did take them seriously for a short
time around 1935, which promptly drove us into an even deeper wave of
depression.

If you read some analysis by any economist over 50 who is associated
with the Univ. of Chicago, or if their biography says anything about the
Austrian School or the American Enterprise Institute, Lew Rockwell or
the Mises Institute, Cato, or George Mason or Loyola Universities, turn
a deaf ear, because they're the voodoo economists who got us here in the
first place.

Russ Roberts, for example.
http://economics.gmu.edu/faculty/rroberts.html

Although I like the podcasts EconTalk and Cafe Hayek, he has some good
guests on, not all of them right-wing.

Aha! Russ Roberts and Don Boudreaux, the Austrian archdukes of the George
Mason coven of Hayekians! g

I've heard he's entertaining and a good read. I shouldn't wisecrack about
him because I've never read or heard his stuff.

--
Ed Huntress
He is entertaining, and the discourse is polite and intelligent. What I've
heard of him has mostly been in the context of interviews he has done with
his guests, including Boudreaux. They are quick to defend market mechanisms,
which is fine, but I haven't heard much consideration for regulating the
players. Intellectually and theoretically, we can defend, for example,
selling default risk in any number or form of instruments, but if the
individuals holding the instruments don't have the assets to cover defaults
then the market isn't really working. I'm sure they would agree with that
but I doubt they were focused on it prior to our recent troubles.

"ATP*" wrote in message
...

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...

"ATP*" wrote in message
...

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...

"Tim Wescott" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:32:51 -0500, Buerste wrote:

When I talked to my friend that has a company that TiN coats cutting
tools today, he said that after a poor December and a so-so January,
his
February is booming! I hope it's a good sign to see industrial
cutting
tools in high demand.

In every recession I've ever lived through (and even from what little
I
know of The Big One in the '30s), life has always gone on.

At some point people get tired of not buying stuff, and companies
realize
that sitting still in a dark room isn't going to save them.

I suspect that we'll see some realignment in the economy if the Dems
don't get too enthusiastic (there was actually a Rick Lowry piece in
the
paper today that I agreed with, on just this topic), but I very much
doubt that we're all going to sit shivering and starving on the
streets
outside of our former homes while the sun slowly goes out.

--
http://www.wescottdesign.com

And, as there was during the Big One, there will be an endless stream
of tenured and degreed naysayers who keep saying that the best thing to
do is nothing, that it will all work out in the end.

Fortunately for us all, no one in a major decision-making capacity
listened to them. Except that FDR did take them seriously for a short
time around 1935, which promptly drove us into an even deeper wave of
depression.

If you read some analysis by any economist over 50 who is associated
with the Univ. of Chicago, or if their biography says anything about
the Austrian School or the American Enterprise Institute, Lew Rockwell
or the Mises Institute, Cato, or George Mason or Loyola Universities,
turn a deaf ear, because they're the voodoo economists who got us here
in the first place.

Russ Roberts, for example.
http://economics.gmu.edu/faculty/rroberts.html

Although I like the podcasts EconTalk and Cafe Hayek, he has some good
guests on, not all of them right-wing.

Aha! Russ Roberts and Don Boudreaux, the Austrian archdukes of the George
Mason coven of Hayekians! g

I've heard he's entertaining and a good read. I shouldn't wisecrack about
him because I've never read or heard his stuff.

--
Ed Huntress
He is entertaining, and the discourse is polite and intelligent. What I've
heard of him has mostly been in the context of interviews he has done with
his guests, including Boudreaux. They are quick to defend market
mechanisms, which is fine, but I haven't heard much consideration for
regulating the players. Intellectually and theoretically, we can defend,
for example, selling default risk in any number or form of instruments,
but if the individuals holding the instruments don't have the assets to
cover defaults then the market isn't really working. I'm sure they would
agree with that but I doubt they were focused on it prior to our recent
troubles.

The Hayek/Mises/Friedman wing of economics is a useful thing, and they've
done the best analyses, until recently, of how markets work. They made
important contributions to the current mainstream of economic understanding.

But they tend to be ideologues who ignore anything that doesn't fit into
their neat, deductive system. When you find one who isn't ideological, but
who thinks every plank of the platform through and can see where the rot
lies, they're worth listening to. They add a dimension that otherwise can be
poorly considered.

--
Ed Huntress

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:14:01 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
snip
The Hayek/Mises/Friedman wing of economics is a useful thing, and they've
done the best analyses, until recently, of how markets work. They made
important contributions to the current mainstream of economic understanding.

But they tend to be ideologues who ignore anything that doesn't fit into
their neat, deductive system. When you find one who isn't ideological, but
who thinks every plank of the platform through and can see where the rot
lies, they're worth listening to. They add a dimension that otherwise can be
poorly considered.
snip
You are correct in their apparent devotion to a particular
ideology. Milton Friedman even wrote a "Capitalist Manifesto."
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Capitalism-F.../dp/0226264211

A major problem is that they tend to think that there is "THE"
market rather than a number of interconnected markets and that
"THE" market is stable in the sense that how "THE" market
operates does not change, ignoring the large amount of "long
cycle" analysis based on Kondratiev's work.

It is clear [to me at least] that there is a critical need to
scrap most economic theory based on philosophizing about how
things ought to be and start again based on how things are, based
on direct observation and accurate objective data for the current
conditions, including population demographics and psychological
profiles.

IMNSHO, the rescue/stimulus packages should have included major
increases for funding of the BLS/BES/Census/GAO for economic
tracking and analysis, and establishment of a "board of enquiry"
system to evaluate and publish "after action reports" or "lessons
learned" for of large corporate bankrupticies/collapses, much as
the NTSB does for major transportation incidents. Of particular
interest would be the physical and mental health profiles of the
major players, with the thought that if a pattern can be
discovered, these can be used to avoid future problems, by
identifying and replacing [or treating] "at risk" executives.

As it is, we as a nation continue to "fly blind," relying on "old
wives' tales," "they say," and "everyone knows."


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 16:11:33 -0800, Gunner Asch
wrote:
snip
One simply drives around So. California to see literally thousands of
closed strip malls, empty Targets, empty commercial properties of all
sorts...that have been empty for a number of years. Perhaps here and
there one may find a nail or cigarette shop open in an otherwise empty
plaza. Office buildings everywhere have banners proclaiming Space
Available.

One could make a decent living in So Cal simply printing "For Lease
Commerical Property" signs

And this has been getting worse for at least 10 yrs
snip
===============
And what was the solution? Why to build more office parks,
malls, etc.

It is exactly these types of properties where the loans are now
coming up for renewal. As indicated, most commercial real estate
is financed with relatively short term loans, 3-5-7 years. In
many cases these are "interest only" loans with no set amount of
principal amortization.

There are two problems:

(1) That the current owners [the developers are most likely long
gone] will not be able to roll over the loans and will go into
default. This however is a paperwork problem only, in that they
have not been a "going business" for several years.

(2) That the banks will roll-over the loan to keep it from
becoming "non-performing" on their books, continuing to conceal
the actual status. This appears to be what did in large numbers
of Japanese banks which have impressive amounts of "performing"
real estate loans on their books paying 1/2% interest or less.

The major danger is an honest bank examiner will take one look at
the loan portfolio, and declares the bank insolvent.

A second, perhaps even more dangerous situation, is where these
loans goes into default en mass, but rather than being on the
banks' books, have been bundled as collateral for a CDO, tanking
the value of the entire CDO, which may be yet another bank's or
pension funds "asset," resulting in yet another "daisy chain" of
asset valuation collapses.

Extensive commercial foreclosures will also have a negative
impact on the local property taxes/valuations, which California
cannot afford, but which are likely to occur anyhow.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 11:00:24 -0600, F. George McDuffee
wrote:

On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 16:11:33 -0800, Gunner Asch
wrote:
snip
One simply drives around So. California to see literally thousands of
closed strip malls, empty Targets, empty commercial properties of all
sorts...that have been empty for a number of years. Perhaps here and
there one may find a nail or cigarette shop open in an otherwise empty
plaza. Office buildings everywhere have banners proclaiming Space
Available.

One could make a decent living in So Cal simply printing "For Lease
Commerical Property" signs

And this has been getting worse for at least 10 yrs
snip
===============
And what was the solution? Why to build more office parks,
malls, etc.

Good question. The changing democraphics of So. Cal have something to
do with it. People moving out of areas that are becoming hispanic
centers farther out from the urban centers..taking their business with
them and needing "local shopping". People have been moving out into the
desert areas, Hemet, San Bernadeno and Riverside counties away from Los
Angeles county.....but it hardly explains the many strip malls etc etc
that were built and are now empty. Investment property and Property
Managment companies were the mantra from what I can see. It appears
that no one foresaw a time when there were too many of them, and finding
tenants would become impossible.
Im sure many are now hoping for the Big One (earthquake).


It is exactly these types of properties where the loans are now
coming up for renewal. As indicated, most commercial real estate
is financed with relatively short term loans, 3-5-7 years. In
many cases these are "interest only" loans with no set amount of
principal amortization.

There are two problems:

(1) That the current owners [the developers are most likely long
gone] will not be able to roll over the loans and will go into
default. This however is a paperwork problem only, in that they
have not been a "going business" for several years.

(2) That the banks will roll-over the loan to keep it from
becoming "non-performing" on their books, continuing to conceal
the actual status. This appears to be what did in large numbers
of Japanese banks which have impressive amounts of "performing"
real estate loans on their books paying 1/2% interest or less.

The major danger is an honest bank examiner will take one look at
the loan portfolio, and declares the bank insolvent.

A second, perhaps even more dangerous situation, is where these
loans goes into default en mass, but rather than being on the
banks' books, have been bundled as collateral for a CDO, tanking
the value of the entire CDO, which may be yet another bank's or
pension funds "asset," resulting in yet another "daisy chain" of
asset valuation collapses.

Extensive commercial foreclosures will also have a negative
impact on the local property taxes/valuations, which California
cannot afford, but which are likely to occur anyhow.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

"Upon Roosevelt's death in 1945, H. L. Mencken predicted in his diary
that Roosevelt would be remembered as a great president, "maybe even
alongside Washington and Lincoln," opining that Roosevelt "had every
quality that morons esteem in their heroes.""

Tim Wescott wrote:

On Fri, 13 Feb 2009 23:32:51 -0500, Buerste wrote:

When I talked to my friend that has a company that TiN coats cutting
tools today, he said that after a poor December and a so-so January, his
February is booming! I hope it's a good sign to see industrial cutting
tools in high demand.

In every recession I've ever lived through (and even from what little I
know of The Big One in the '30s), life has always gone on.

At some point people get tired of not buying stuff, and companies realize
that sitting still in a dark room isn't going to save them.

I've just had the ETA of an order I placed with Grizzly Industrial bumped
back to a total of 6 months. For about $50 of items that they normally keep
in stock.

They have plenty of customers. What they don't have is credit.

I suspect that we'll see some realignment in the economy if the Dems
don't get too enthusiastic (there was actually a Rick Lowry piece in the
paper today that I agreed with, on just this topic), but I very much
doubt that we're all going to sit shivering and starving on the streets
outside of our former homes while the sun slowly goes out.

There was an economist on a local radio talk show saying that what we are
experiencing is a strike by the banking industry. Either we make them whole
again after their screw-up with the mortgage business or no money moves.
Although I don't thing we should go as far as he was recommending
(nationalizing the banking industry), I do agree with his position that its
time to stop offering the banking business a carrot and break out the
stick.

The next time a bank goes under, the feds should just pick it up and run it
themselves. Better yet, don't wait for a bank to fail, start opening local
branches right now, in competition with the private banks. Essentially
government backed credit unions. Take deposits, pay interest, make loans,
issue credit cards, etc. If JP Morgan and their ilk don't like the
competition, they can compete to keep the business.

--
Paul Hovnanian
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Have gnu, will travel.

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:27:44 -0800, "Paul Hovnanian P.E."
wrote:

The next time a bank goes under, the feds should just pick it up and run it
themselves.


The examples of them doing just this with other business are large...

They took over a whore house in Nevada for taxes..and managed to run it
into the ground.

And you want government, which couldnt even run a whore house...to run
something as complex as a financial institution?

You have lots and lots of faith.........

The only whorehouse they have had any luck running...is Congress....

Gunner

"Upon Roosevelt's death in 1945, H. L. Mencken predicted in his diary
that Roosevelt would be remembered as a great president, "maybe even
alongside Washington and Lincoln," opining that Roosevelt "had every
quality that morons esteem in their heroes.""

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:27:44 -0800, "Paul Hovnanian P.E."
wrote:

snip
There was an economist on a local radio talk show saying that what we are
experiencing is a strike by the banking industry. Either we make them whole
again after their screw-up with the mortgage business or no money moves.
Although I don't thing we should go as far as he was recommending
(nationalizing the banking industry), I do agree with his position that its
time to stop offering the banking business a carrot and break out the
stick.

The next time a bank goes under, the feds should just pick it up and run it
themselves. Better yet, don't wait for a bank to fail, start opening local
branches right now, in competition with the private banks. Essentially
government backed credit unions. Take deposits, pay interest, make loans,
issue credit cards, etc. If JP Morgan and their ilk don't like the
competition, they can compete to keep the business.
------------------
While I think you are on the right track, there does not appear
to be any need to open new banks, simply make additional capital
available for the strong local and regional banks, credit unions,
etc. that are already there, simply by making sizable CD
purchases with 3 to 5 year terms.

==In many cases, the stronger local and regional banks don't
need more capital,== as this is not the reason for not making a
loan, but rather their reluctance to make loans is the result of
the prospective borrower's inability to satisfactorily answer the
three traditional credit questions [that the major banks in
trouble apparently did not ask].
(1) Can this borrower repay the loan?
(2) Will this borrower repay the loan?
(3) What can I do if this borrower doesn't repay the loan.

Not everyone that wants money, individual or company, is
justified in getting it.

On the other hand, there is a great deal to be said for the
ruthless administrative seizure and liquidation of known
insolvent banks, or more importantly banks whose solvency cannot
be determined because of their management's "stonewalling," about
the types, amounts and current value/location of assets and
liabilities, whether from obstinacy, ignorance, or an effort to
avoid criminal prosecution. It may well be that the reason that
the major national banks are not making any loans is because they
are insolvent, but no one knows.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/...3insolvent.php

With some foresight and planning, the liquidation of even banking
behemoths such as Citygroup and BoA should be doable with minimum
inconvenience to the public [but not at the same time], for
example, keeping existing credit card and checking accounts
open/active and functioning, albeit processed through other
existing banks. The existing stockholders and most likely
bondholders [not depositors] will of course be wiped out, but
this is simply making the paperwork match the actual conditions,
rather than generating any "new" losses.

Another advantage is that this is effectively bankruptcy,
abrogating existing employment contracts of the officers and
directors, thus allowing them to be terminated without
significant separation payments, and "cramming down" the
compensation to reasonable levels of any retained personnel.

In any event, the whole "bill of goods" [TARP and the stimulus
packages] were sold to Congress and the American people as an
"economic rescue package" not a "bank rescue package." It is
clearly long past time for a treatment instead of a treat for
many economic sectors.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 14:21:13 -0600, F. George McDuffee
wrote:

On the other hand, there is a great deal to be said for the
ruthless administrative seizure and liquidation of known
insolvent banks, or more importantly banks whose solvency cannot
be determined because of their management's "stonewalling," about
the types, amounts and current value/location of assets and
liabilities, whether from obstinacy, ignorance, or an effort to
avoid criminal prosecution. It may well be that the reason that
the major national banks are not making any loans is because they
are insolvent, but no one knows.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/...3insolvent.php
-----------
If anyone cares I just came across the WSJ article on what the
Residential Mortgage backed CDOs [that stuff the vaults of many
of our major banks] are currently selling for.

-------------
Price of 'Toxic' Debt May Be Just Pennies

By ANUSHA SHRIVASTAVA

Toxic assets aren't difficult to sell if the price is right.

Hedge funds and private-equity firms are buying bonds based on
risky home loans at prices as low as five cents on the dollar as
banks, insurance companies and pension funds are forced to unload
these securities that continue to lose value.

This is happening at a time when the government is still trying
to work out how best to value these assets and entice investors
to buy mortgage assets that are clogging up banks' books.

snip

For bonds with higher ratings, such as double-A, buyers are
typically willing to pay up to 20 cents on the dollar -- some
even as high as 40 cents -- because they believe it is still a
good buy based on their valuation of these bonds, which continue
to face a flurry of downgrades.

"The bonds could be worth 10 cents or 20 cents and both sell for
15 cents on the dollar, so it spells an opportunity for someone
who can decipher the difference or who can properly value bonds
on a fundamental basis," Mr. Nolan said.

snip
------------
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123453579092182847.html


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:14:01 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
snip
The Hayek/Mises/Friedman wing of economics is a useful thing, and they've
done the best analyses, until recently, of how markets work. They made
important contributions to the current mainstream of economic
understanding.

But they tend to be ideologues who ignore anything that doesn't fit into
their neat, deductive system. When you find one who isn't ideological, but
who thinks every plank of the platform through and can see where the rot
lies, they're worth listening to. They add a dimension that otherwise can
be
poorly considered.
snip
You are correct in their apparent devotion to a particular
ideology. Milton Friedman even wrote a "Capitalist Manifesto."
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Capitalism-F.../dp/0226264211

A major problem is that they tend to think that there is "THE"
market rather than a number of interconnected markets and that
"THE" market is stable in the sense that how "THE" market
operates does not change, ignoring the large amount of "long
cycle" analysis based on Kondratiev's work.

It is clear [to me at least] that there is a critical need to
scrap most economic theory based on philosophizing about how
things ought to be and start again based on how things are, based
on direct observation and accurate objective data for the current
conditions, including population demographics and psychological
profiles.

That's a tall order, George. John and I have discussed behavioral economics,
which is the coming thing in the field, but I don't know what the actual
curriculum is. I think it's still a minor subject in college economics
programs, where it exists at all.


IMNSHO, the rescue/stimulus packages should have included major
increases for funding of the BLS/BES/Census/GAO for economic
tracking and analysis, and establishment of a "board of enquiry"
system to evaluate and publish "after action reports" or "lessons
learned" for of large corporate bankrupticies/collapses, much as
the NTSB does for major transportation incidents. Of particular
interest would be the physical and mental health profiles of the
major players, with the thought that if a pattern can be
discovered, these can be used to avoid future problems, by
identifying and replacing [or treating] "at risk" executives.

Ha-ha! Oh, that will go over big with the business community. I can
visualize how they'll react to the government taking "mental health
profiles" of executives involved in bankrupcies. d8-)


As it is, we as a nation continue to "fly blind," relying on "old
wives' tales," "they say," and "everyone knows."

Well, I think economics actually is a lot better than that. It's just that
there are many things that involve psychological factors in decision making
that they can't cope with. Maybe someday.

--
Ed Huntress

On 2009-02-16, Gunner Asch wrote:
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:27:44 -0800, "Paul Hovnanian P.E."
wrote:

The next time a bank goes under, the feds should just pick it up and run it
themselves.


The examples of them doing just this with other business are large...

They took over a whore house in Nevada for taxes..and managed to run it
into the ground.

They actually did not want to run it, it is a well known story.

i

And you want government, which couldnt even run a whore house...to run
something as complex as a financial institution?

You have lots and lots of faith.........

The only whorehouse they have had any luck running...is Congress....

Gunner

"Upon Roosevelt's death in 1945, H. L. Mencken predicted in his diary
that Roosevelt would be remembered as a great president, "maybe even
alongside Washington and Lincoln," opining that Roosevelt "had every
quality that morons esteem in their heroes.""

--
Due to extreme spam originating from Google Groups, and their inattention
to spammers, I and many others block all articles originating
from Google Groups. If you want your postings to be seen by
more readers you will need to find a different means of
posting on Usenet.
http://improve-usenet.org/

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:51:13 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

IMNSHO, the rescue/stimulus packages should have included major
increases for funding of the BLS/BES/Census/GAO for economic
tracking and analysis, and establishment of a "board of enquiry"
system to evaluate and publish "after action reports" or "lessons
learned" for of large corporate bankrupticies/collapses, much as
the NTSB does for major transportation incidents. Of particular
interest would be the physical and mental health profiles of the
major players, with the thought that if a pattern can be
discovered, these can be used to avoid future problems, by
identifying and replacing [or treating] "at risk" executives.

Ha-ha! Oh, that will go over big with the business community. I can
visualize how they'll react to the government taking "mental health
profiles" of executives involved in bankrupcies. d8-)
-----------
Indeed, but just about every other occupation/profession where a
person is involved in a major incident including ferry boat
pilots, railway engineers, over the road truckers and air line
pilots, must undergo an immediate drug and alcohol test, and many
must undergo another "flight physical" before they are allowed
back in the driver's seat, and their medical records are
reviewed.

Given the structure and timespan/latency of the CEO positions a
complete physical and mental examination/evaluation seems
entirely reasonable, as does a in-depth background check for
other problems hobbies such as large scale gambling, alcohol/drug
abuse, mistresses, etc.

While I can understand the reluctance of the prosecutors to
possibly establish a "diminished mental capacity" defense in
these cases, including outright fraud such as Madoff, it would
appear that society as a whole has a greater interest in
prevention. For example, I suggest that Mr. Madoff be MRI scanned
to determine if possibly a brain tumor exists.

Mr. Thain should be checked for possible bi-polar. No one in
their right mind spends over a million dollars to redecorate
their office as their company is going bankrupt.

Assuming there is no organic/systemic basis for such behaviors
(which is the most clear cut to diagnose), then it is vital to
test for mental problems such as megalomania and sociopathy.

In any event, the behaviors, traits, habits etc. of the
individuals involved over the previous 3 to 5 years should be
compiled, and examined for commonalities, with the object of
creating a 5 to 20 item list of easily observed traits/habits
that correlate with future business difficulties.

Such traits *MAY* ["may" because there is no hard, only
anecdotal, data] include lurid marital problems, repeated
personal tax/regulatory difficulties, repeated driving violations
such as grossly excessive speeding, obsessive operational
secrecy, preoccupation with social status and image, and
flagrant conspicuous consumption.

If such a list can be developed, it should be as familiar to the
average person as the 7 early warning signs of cancer. If we
can't stop the train wrecks, at least we may be able to get off
or get out of the way before these occur.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:51:13 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

IMNSHO, the rescue/stimulus packages should have included major
increases for funding of the BLS/BES/Census/GAO for economic
tracking and analysis, and establishment of a "board of enquiry"
system to evaluate and publish "after action reports" or "lessons
learned" for of large corporate bankrupticies/collapses, much as
the NTSB does for major transportation incidents. Of particular
interest would be the physical and mental health profiles of the
major players, with the thought that if a pattern can be
discovered, these can be used to avoid future problems, by
identifying and replacing [or treating] "at risk" executives.

Ha-ha! Oh, that will go over big with the business community. I can
visualize how they'll react to the government taking "mental health
profiles" of executives involved in bankrupcies. d8-)
-----------
Indeed, but just about every other occupation/profession where a
person is involved in a major incident including ferry boat
pilots, railway engineers, over the road truckers and air line
pilots, must undergo an immediate drug and alcohol test, and many
must undergo another "flight physical" before they are allowed
back in the driver's seat, and their medical records are
reviewed.

Given the structure and timespan/latency of the CEO positions a
complete physical and mental examination/evaluation seems
entirely reasonable, as does a in-depth background check for
other problems hobbies such as large scale gambling, alcohol/drug
abuse, mistresses, etc.

While I can understand the reluctance of the prosecutors to
possibly establish a "diminished mental capacity" defense in
these cases, including outright fraud such as Madoff, it would
appear that society as a whole has a greater interest in
prevention. For example, I suggest that Mr. Madoff be MRI scanned
to determine if possibly a brain tumor exists.

Mr. Thain should be checked for possible bi-polar. No one in
their right mind spends over a million dollars to redecorate
their office as their company is going bankrupt.

Assuming there is no organic/systemic basis for such behaviors
(which is the most clear cut to diagnose), then it is vital to
test for mental problems such as megalomania and sociopathy.

In any event, the behaviors, traits, habits etc. of the
individuals involved over the previous 3 to 5 years should be
compiled, and examined for commonalities, with the object of
creating a 5 to 20 item list of easily observed traits/habits
that correlate with future business difficulties.

Such traits *MAY* ["may" because there is no hard, only
anecdotal, data] include lurid marital problems, repeated
personal tax/regulatory difficulties, repeated driving violations
such as grossly excessive speeding, obsessive operational
secrecy, preoccupation with social status and image, and
flagrant conspicuous consumption.

If such a list can be developed, it should be as familiar to the
average person as the 7 early warning signs of cancer. If we
can't stop the train wrecks, at least we may be able to get off
or get out of the way before these occur.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
God Unka' George we have had some of this already in place for a long time:
security clearances. Had I done exactly what Bill Clinton did, I would have
lost my security clearance in a heartbeat due to the compromising position
available thru blackmail. I did not have a nuclear button in my hand
either. It is judiciously applied and would similarly if applied to CEOs
making millions. Half or more of our Congress have backgrounds that
wouldn't allow a clearance to Confidential in the places I've worked.
I certainly agree that we need some way to monitor or predict when a person
is capable or not capable of handling the power he is about to be granted.
We watched commander after commander at the Kwajalein Missile Range succomb
to the amount of power in the position and do really dumb things: Had the
fire plugs and all the backs of the stop signs all painted desert brown.
Hazard signs removed. I can give you a long list of similar stupids. One
wanted to put the radar down for an estimated 6 months that produced the
majority of the deep space satellite data to Cheyenne Mountain so that it
could be painted brown instead of its heat rejecting white. We witnessed
first hand that power corrupts. Most of these guys were reasonable people
before dropping into positions of relatively absolute power. We could have
saved a bunch of money and frustrations if these guys could have been either
filtered out or trained to handle the big increase in power.

Stu

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:05:07 -0800, "Stuart Fields"
wrote:

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
.. .
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:51:13 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

IMNSHO, the rescue/stimulus packages should have included major
increases for funding of the BLS/BES/Census/GAO for economic
tracking and analysis, and establishment of a "board of enquiry"
system to evaluate and publish "after action reports" or "lessons
learned" for of large corporate bankrupticies/collapses, much as
the NTSB does for major transportation incidents. Of particular
interest would be the physical and mental health profiles of the
major players, with the thought that if a pattern can be
discovered, these can be used to avoid future problems, by
identifying and replacing [or treating] "at risk" executives.

Ha-ha! Oh, that will go over big with the business community. I can
visualize how they'll react to the government taking "mental health
profiles" of executives involved in bankrupcies. d8-)
-----------
Indeed, but just about every other occupation/profession where a
person is involved in a major incident including ferry boat
pilots, railway engineers, over the road truckers and air line
pilots, must undergo an immediate drug and alcohol test, and many
must undergo another "flight physical" before they are allowed
back in the driver's seat, and their medical records are
reviewed.

Given the structure and timespan/latency of the CEO positions a
complete physical and mental examination/evaluation seems
entirely reasonable, as does a in-depth background check for
other problems hobbies such as large scale gambling, alcohol/drug
abuse, mistresses, etc.

While I can understand the reluctance of the prosecutors to
possibly establish a "diminished mental capacity" defense in
these cases, including outright fraud such as Madoff, it would
appear that society as a whole has a greater interest in
prevention. For example, I suggest that Mr. Madoff be MRI scanned
to determine if possibly a brain tumor exists.

Mr. Thain should be checked for possible bi-polar. No one in
their right mind spends over a million dollars to redecorate
their office as their company is going bankrupt.

Assuming there is no organic/systemic basis for such behaviors
(which is the most clear cut to diagnose), then it is vital to
test for mental problems such as megalomania and sociopathy.

In any event, the behaviors, traits, habits etc. of the
individuals involved over the previous 3 to 5 years should be
compiled, and examined for commonalities, with the object of
creating a 5 to 20 item list of easily observed traits/habits
that correlate with future business difficulties.

Such traits *MAY* ["may" because there is no hard, only
anecdotal, data] include lurid marital problems, repeated
personal tax/regulatory difficulties, repeated driving violations
such as grossly excessive speeding, obsessive operational
secrecy, preoccupation with social status and image, and
flagrant conspicuous consumption.

If such a list can be developed, it should be as familiar to the
average person as the 7 early warning signs of cancer. If we
can't stop the train wrecks, at least we may be able to get off
or get out of the way before these occur.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
God Unka' George we have had some of this already in place for a long time:
security clearances.
snip of some very good observations
===========
Fantastic suggestion/observation. A flash of blinding light.

Everything is in place, so the marginal cost of a few thousand
more individuals should not be too great.

Anyone know why legislation should not be enacted requiring the
CEOs of the Fortune 500/1000 companies to obtain/maintain a
"secret" or above security clearance?

Should be an easy sell under the "counter terrorism" banner, and
I can see a contest developing between the CEOs -- you just got a
"secret" clearance and a Porsche, but I got a "top secret"
clearance [and the decoder ring] and a Maserati. Obviously any
CEO that objects either has something to hide or is not a
Patriot.

On the serious side, it is obvious that this group is positioned
to do more damage than 99% of the people that currently have high
security clearances, and during the course of business come
across considerable sensitive information, so this would not be a
totally amiss, even using traditional security rationales.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:05:07 -0800, "Stuart Fields"
wrote:

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
. ..
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:51:13 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

-------------------------------------------
God Unka' George we have had some of this already in place for a long
time:
security clearances.
snip of some very good observations
===========
Fantastic suggestion/observation. A flash of blinding light.

Everything is in place, so the marginal cost of a few thousand
more individuals should not be too great.

LOL
It ain't that easy George.


Anyone know why legislation should not be enacted requiring the
CEOs of the Fortune 500/1000 companies to obtain/maintain a
"secret" or above security clearance?

Money for one and government resources for another.


Should be an easy sell under the "counter terrorism" banner, and
I can see a contest developing between the CEOs -- you just got a
"secret" clearance and a Porsche, but I got a "top secret"
clearance [and the decoder ring] and a Maserati. Obviously any
CEO that objects either has something to hide or is not a
Patriot.

They would just work ona waiver.
LOL
That was what happened in many cases after 9-11.


On the serious side, it is obvious that this group is positioned
to do more damage than 99% of the people that currently have high
security clearances, and during the course of business come
across considerable sensitive information, so this would not be a
totally amiss, even using traditional security rationales.

A lot of todays top executives do carry clearances of one sort or another
George.
They have to.


JC

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:51:13 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
snip
It is clear [to me at least] that there is a critical need to
scrap most economic theory based on philosophizing about how
things ought to be and start again based on how things are, based
on direct observation and accurate objective data for the current
conditions, including population demographics and psychological
profiles.

That's a tall order, George. John and I have discussed behavioral economics,
which is the coming thing in the field, but I don't know what the actual
curriculum is. I think it's still a minor subject in college economics
programs, where it exists at all.
snip
-----------
This is a common academic failing, i.e. thinking that unless it
is taught in your department or at least your college it can't be
any good. It is a common cause for course proliferation and
leads to empire building with in departments.

The solution is march the students over to the psychology
department and sign them up for some of the existing higher level
soc/psych/anthropology courses. Some of the higher level history
courses [beyond the intro/survey classes we all take] would be
helpful also. When you don't know where you have been its very
difficult to tell where you are going, and you will keep making
the same mistakes. Of course it works the other way and many of
the history majors should be taking some advanced econ classes
for insight into their field.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:47:52 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:
snip

On the serious side, it is obvious that this group is positioned
to do more damage than 99% of the people that currently have high
security clearances, and during the course of business come
across considerable sensitive information, so this would not be a
totally amiss, even using traditional security rationales.

A lot of todays top executives do carry clearances of one sort or another
George.
They have to.
snip
--------------

Very interesting .....

If this has been the case for some time [and the data was
available] it should be a simple matter to see if there is a
statistical correlation between a CEO's security clearance
[existence and level], with the implied limits on their
behavior/life style, and other criteria such as company
profitability, P/E ratios, growth, bankruptcies, etc.

Any to determine which CEOs have what clearances?
(FOIA request?) Most of the other information of interest is
public record / annual report stuff.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:47:52 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:
snip

On the serious side, it is obvious that this group is positioned
to do more damage than 99% of the people that currently have high
security clearances, and during the course of business come
across considerable sensitive information, so this would not be a
totally amiss, even using traditional security rationales.

A lot of todays top executives do carry clearances of one sort or another
George.
They have to.
snip
--------------

Very interesting .....

If this has been the case for some time [and the data was
available] it should be a simple matter to see if there is a
statistical correlation between a CEO's security clearance
[existence and level], with the implied limits on their
behavior/life style, and other criteria such as company
profitability, P/E ratios, growth, bankruptcies, etc.

Any to determine which CEOs have what clearances?

I doubt that such a FOIA request would be granted.
Blanket requests of that nature are excluded, I'm sure.
Studies/data are published once in a while. You'd be surprised, for example,
of the percentage of active duty military that aren't able to be deployed
outside the CONUS. Pay day lenders have taken their toll.It's a real burden
on unit readiness.


JC

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:24:58 -0600, the infamous F. George McDuffee
scrawled the following:

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:51:13 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

IMNSHO, the rescue/stimulus packages should have included major
increases for funding of the BLS/BES/Census/GAO for economic
tracking and analysis, and establishment of a "board of enquiry"
system to evaluate and publish "after action reports" or "lessons
learned" for of large corporate bankrupticies/collapses, much as
the NTSB does for major transportation incidents. Of particular
interest would be the physical and mental health profiles of the
major players, with the thought that if a pattern can be
discovered, these can be used to avoid future problems, by
identifying and replacing [or treating] "at risk" executives.

Ha-ha! Oh, that will go over big with the business community. I can
visualize how they'll react to the government taking "mental health
profiles" of executives involved in bankrupcies. d8-)
-----------
Indeed, but just about every other occupation/profession where a
person is involved in a major incident including ferry boat
pilots, railway engineers, over the road truckers and air line
pilots, must undergo an immediate drug and alcohol test, and many
must undergo another "flight physical" before they are allowed
back in the driver's seat, and their medical records are
reviewed.

Given the structure and timespan/latency of the CEO positions a
complete physical and mental examination/evaluation seems
entirely reasonable, as does a in-depth background check for
other problems hobbies such as large scale gambling, alcohol/drug
abuse, mistresses, etc.

While I can understand the reluctance of the prosecutors to
possibly establish a "diminished mental capacity" defense in
these cases, including outright fraud such as Madoff, it would
appear that society as a whole has a greater interest in
prevention. For example, I suggest that Mr. Madoff be MRI scanned
to determine if possibly a brain tumor exists.

Mr. Thain should be checked for possible bi-polar. No one in
their right mind spends over a million dollars to redecorate
their office as their company is going bankrupt.

Assuming there is no organic/systemic basis for such behaviors
(which is the most clear cut to diagnose), then it is vital to
test for mental problems such as megalomania and sociopathy.

In any event, the behaviors, traits, habits etc. of the
individuals involved over the previous 3 to 5 years should be
compiled, and examined for commonalities, with the object of
creating a 5 to 20 item list of easily observed traits/habits
that correlate with future business difficulties.

Such traits *MAY* ["may" because there is no hard, only
anecdotal, data] include lurid marital problems, repeated
personal tax/regulatory difficulties, repeated driving violations
such as grossly excessive speeding, obsessive operational
secrecy, preoccupation with social status and image, and
flagrant conspicuous consumption.

If such a list can be developed, it should be as familiar to the
average person as the 7 early warning signs of cancer. If we
can't stop the train wrecks, at least we may be able to get off
or get out of the way before these occur.

An interesting discourse, Unk, and its inception may lead to a better
future for us. But greed has never been defined as mental illness, at
least not to my recollection. Let's treat it for what it is...

But wouldn't King Louis XVI's (and Dr. Guillotin's) method of negative
feedback work better? And who is guilty of making top floor windows
immovable? It rules out all sorts of Darwinian cleansing action.

The honorable Japanese have their Seppuku, but our financial "leaders"
are not honorable. I'll bet we could find volunteer helpers, tho.

Then there's always (my fave) this popular and fitting method.
http://bailout-free.com/images/NonSequitur.gif

-----------------------------------------------
Never attempt to traverse a chasm in two leaps.
===============================================

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:05:07 -0800, the infamous "Stuart Fields"
scrawled the following:

God Unka' George we have had some of this already in place for a long time:
security clearances. Had I done exactly what Bill Clinton did, I would have
lost my security clearance in a heartbeat due to the compromising position
available thru blackmail. I did not have a nuclear button in my hand
either. It is judiciously applied and would similarly if applied to CEOs
making millions. Half or more of our Congress have backgrounds that
wouldn't allow a clearance to Confidential in the places I've worked.

That's for damned sure. I wonder why that was never brought up by the
Press...


I certainly agree that we need some way to monitor or predict when a person
is capable or not capable of handling the power he is about to be granted.
We watched commander after commander at the Kwajalein Missile Range succomb
to the amount of power in the position and do really dumb things: Had the
fire plugs and all the backs of the stop signs all painted desert brown.
Hazard signs removed. I can give you a long list of similar stupids. One
wanted to put the radar down for an estimated 6 months that produced the
majority of the deep space satellite data to Cheyenne Mountain so that it
could be painted brown instead of its heat rejecting white. We witnessed
first hand that power corrupts. Most of these guys were reasonable people
before dropping into positions of relatively absolute power. We could have
saved a bunch of money and frustrations if these guys could have been either
filtered out or trained to handle the big increase in power.

Given the base corruption of nearly all politicians (don't you have to
be a filthy pig in order to want political power in the first place?)
something as simple as the Peter Principle just multiplies it when
they get into office.

GIGO, mon.

--
I'm still waiting for another sublime, transcendent flash of adequacy.
--Winnie of RCM

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:41:02 -0600, the infamous Ignoramus10382
scrawled the following:

On 2009-02-16, Gunner Asch wrote:
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:27:44 -0800, "Paul Hovnanian P.E."
wrote:

The next time a bank goes under, the feds should just pick it up and run it
themselves.


The examples of them doing just this with other business are large...

They took over a whore house in Nevada for taxes..and managed to run it
into the ground.

They actually did not want to run it, it is a well known story.

i

And you want government, which couldnt even run a whore house...to run
something as complex as a financial institution?

You have lots and lots of faith.........

The only whorehouse they have had any luck running...is Congress....

Gunner

Are you going to let Gunner get away with saying that the CONgress is
a functional entity which they're having luck running? Anyone?
thud

--
I'm still waiting for another sublime, transcendent flash of adequacy.
--Winnie of RCM

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:05:07 -0800, "Stuart Fields"
wrote:
snip
I certainly agree that we need some way to monitor or predict when a person
is capable or not capable of handling the power he is about to be granted.
We watched commander after commander at the Kwajalein Missile Range succomb
to the amount of power in the position and do really dumb things: Had the
fire plugs and all the backs of the stop signs all painted desert brown.
Hazard signs removed. I can give you a long list of similar stupids. One
wanted to put the radar down for an estimated 6 months that produced the
majority of the deep space satellite data to Cheyenne Mountain so that it
could be painted brown instead of its heat rejecting white. We witnessed
first hand that power corrupts. Most of these guys were reasonable people
before dropping into positions of relatively absolute power. We could have
saved a bunch of money and frustrations if these guys could have been either
filtered out or trained to handle the big increase in power.
snip
----------
Was this officer named Queeg? [Caine Mutiny by Wouk] While a
novel, "The Caine Mutiny" shows how one bad apple as a
subordinate can undermine an entire staff and an experienced
leader. Any of that in evidence?

This does however seem to indicate that not only power corrupts,
but even the illusion of power.

It speaks volumes that even people educated and trained from the
start of their careers in command and leadership, backstopped by
a formal IG system, are susceptible to this.

It is clear that the top is not only a lonely place, but also an
exceedingly toxic one.

About the only palliatives I see are strict term limits and
frequent reviews for evidence of "losing it." Even this may not
be adequate based on the anecdotal evidence above.

How long were the COs in place before they started losing it? On
the other hand, perhaps they were sent to an out of the way place
like Kwajalein (as well as the members of their staffs),
precisely because they were losing it or had screwed up.


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

"John R. Carroll" wrote in message
...

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:47:52 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:
snip

On the serious side, it is obvious that this group is positioned
to do more damage than 99% of the people that currently have high
security clearances, and during the course of business come
across considerable sensitive information, so this would not be a
totally amiss, even using traditional security rationales.

A lot of todays top executives do carry clearances of one sort or another
George.
They have to.
snip
--------------

Very interesting .....

If this has been the case for some time [and the data was
available] it should be a simple matter to see if there is a
statistical correlation between a CEO's security clearance
[existence and level], with the implied limits on their
behavior/life style, and other criteria such as company
profitability, P/E ratios, growth, bankruptcies, etc.

Any to determine which CEOs have what clearances?

I doubt that such a FOIA request would be granted.
Blanket requests of that nature are excluded, I'm sure.
Studies/data are published once in a while. You'd be surprised, for
example, of the percentage of active duty military that aren't able to be
deployed outside the CONUS. Pay day lenders have taken their toll.It's a
real burden on unit readiness.


JC
Actually the fact that a particular person has a security clearance and at
what level is normally held close as it points an arrow at that person and
makes them more a target for focussed HUMINT gathering. That said where I
worked had different color badges for Confidential and Secret. It also had
an indication of higher clearance. It was quite often that you could see
someone downtown with their badge still displayed. Oh well.

Stu

"Stuart Fields" wrote in message
...

"John R. Carroll" wrote in message
...

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:47:52 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:
snip

On the serious side, it is obvious that this group is positioned
to do more damage than 99% of the people that currently have high
security clearances, and during the course of business come
across considerable sensitive information, so this would not be a
totally amiss, even using traditional security rationales.

A lot of todays top executives do carry clearances of one sort or
another
George.
They have to.
snip
--------------

Very interesting .....

If this has been the case for some time [and the data was
available] it should be a simple matter to see if there is a
statistical correlation between a CEO's security clearance
[existence and level], with the implied limits on their
behavior/life style, and other criteria such as company
profitability, P/E ratios, growth, bankruptcies, etc.

Any to determine which CEOs have what clearances?

I doubt that such a FOIA request would be granted.
Blanket requests of that nature are excluded, I'm sure.
Studies/data are published once in a while. You'd be surprised, for
example, of the percentage of active duty military that aren't able to be
deployed outside the CONUS. Pay day lenders have taken their toll.It's a
real burden on unit readiness.


JC
Actually the fact that a particular person has a security clearance and at
what level is normally held close as it points an arrow at that person and
makes them more a target for focussed HUMINT gathering.

Lots'a rules - some of them even mimick common sense.

That said where I worked had different color badges for Confidential and
Secret. It also had an indication of higher clearance. It was quite often
that you could see someone downtown with their badge still displayed. Oh
well.

I'd be curious to know what percentage of our leading finance guru's would
agree to go on the box on command.
LOL

Anyway, our top business schools are set up to recruit sociopaths. In this
they are succesful.
Expect reasonable behavior once they release their product isn't rational or
sane.
Educating sociopaths leads to well educated predators, not benign masters of
the universe and blaming the sociopath is more than a little disingenuous.


JC

On Tue, 17 Feb 2009 09:20:30 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:
snip
Anyway, our top business schools are set up to recruit sociopaths. In this
they are succesful.
Expect reasonable behavior once they release their product isn't rational or
sane.
Educating sociopaths leads to well educated predators, not benign masters of
the universe and blaming the sociopath is more than a little disingenuous.
snip
I think we may have a glimmer of insight here. Good observation
John. You may enjoy one of the TED film clips on this point.
http://www.ted.com/talks/barry_schwa...of_wisdom.html


Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 23:13:27 -0600, F. George McDuffee
wrote:



Any to determine which CEOs have what clearances?
(FOIA request?) Most of the other information of interest is
public record / annual report stuff.



If your clearance procedures are at all similar to our procedures in the UK,
then probably none of them are eligible. We have to know who our fathers and
grandfathers were for Security Clearance :-)


Mark Rand
RTFM

On Tue, 17 Feb 2009 23:13:58 +0000, Mark Rand
wrote:

On Mon, 16 Feb 2009 23:13:27 -0600, F. George McDuffee
wrote:



Any to determine which CEOs have what clearances?
(FOIA request?) Most of the other information of interest is
public record / annual report stuff.



If your clearance procedures are at all similar to our procedures in the UK,
then probably none of them are eligible. We have to know who our fathers and
grandfathers were for Security Clearance :-)


Mark Rand
RTFM
As a federal silly servant, my security clearance had to be reviewed
every five years, or, before any promotion. My last promotion came 2
years into the cycle so it was no problem to copy the photocopied data
from the previous data sheet to the new. Come time for my new salary
rate to show up on my pay stub, it didn't show up. On investigation,
the answer was that I had not as yet submitted the data sheet for the
required security check to which my answer was to show my suitably
annotated photocopy of the required document. Within a week, I
received a check for the difference in pay and a signed apology from
the regional manager of the verification agency (filed downstairs in
my personnel file, along with enough documentation to somewhat
embarrass quite a few members of middle management)
One of these days, I should clean out a couple drawers of my
file cabinet as this information is at least 15 years old.
Gerry :-)}
London, Canada

"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 17 Feb 2009 09:20:30 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:
snip
Anyway, our top business schools are set up to recruit sociopaths. In this
they are succesful.
Expect reasonable behavior once they release their product isn't rational
or
sane.
Educating sociopaths leads to well educated predators, not benign masters
of
the universe and blaming the sociopath is more than a little disingenuous.
snip
I think we may have a glimmer of insight here. Good observation
John. You may enjoy one of the TED film clips on this point.
http://www.ted.com/talks/barry_schwa...of_wisdom.html

I wouldn't say I know Barry well but I know him and he has a shop as a hobby
at home.
He also has one of my software products and his training - and mine -
included more than one weekend of work by day and eat well, drink hearty (
Sutter Home Reserve Merlot ), while solving the worlds problems after dark.

JC