I predict the Dow will be at 5,000 July 1, 2009.

Please record your prediction now to authenticate a winner. I'm willing to
pony up $5 to the winner, as should every contestant.

Anyone want to keep track?

Steve

SteveB wrote:
I predict the Dow will be at 5,000 July 1, 2009.

Please record your prediction now to authenticate a winner. I'm willing to
pony up $5 to the winner, as should every contestant.


Dunno if I'd call it a prediction, but I mentioned to a friend I think
it'll be at 5500 sometime this year, so that's my entry.

Jon

On 2009-01-21, SteveB wrote:
I predict the Dow will be at 5,000 July 1, 2009.

Please record your prediction now to authenticate a winner. I'm willing to
pony up $5 to the winner, as should every contestant.

Anyone want to keep track?


I predict $8,000 and am pledging $5 towards a winner.

--
Due to extreme spam originating from Google Groups, and their inattention
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--Pessimist! :-)
I'll bet it tops, oh, 9,000 in maybe 4 years. That 10,000 we had was
mostly hot air and bravado: a bubble that was aching to be popped.

--
"Steamboat Ed" Haas : Do us a favor and rescue
Hacking the Trailing Edge! : a doggie or three...
www.nmpproducts.com
---Decks a-wash in a sea of words---

On 2009-01-21, steamer wrote:
--Pessimist! :-)
I'll bet it tops, oh, 9,000 in maybe 4 years. That 10,000 we had was
mostly hot air and bravado: a bubble that was aching to be popped.


You have to bet about what happens on July 1, that's the condition of
the contest.

--
Due to extreme spam originating from Google Groups, and their inattention
to spammers, I and many others block all articles originating
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Ignoramus15648 wrote:

You have to bet about what happens on July 1, that's the condition of
the contest.


Well since he didn't speak out for it on that date, I'll take Dow 9000 and add 5 to the
payout.

Wes
--
"Additionally as a security officer, I carry a gun to protect
government officials but my life isn't worth protecting at home
in their eyes." Dick Anthony Heller

On 2009-01-21, SteveB wrote:
I predict the Dow will be at 5,000 July 1, 2009.
^^

Please record your prediction now to authenticate a winner. I'm willing to
pony up $5 to the winner, as should every contestant.

That is a fairly easy bet to lose. If I were offering such a
bet (which I am not), I would say one of:

"Greater than"

"Less than"

certainly *not*

"at".

Too easy to lose on that one.

Anyone want to keep track?

Not I. I don't even know what the current Dow is -- and I don't
care.

Enjoy,
DoN.

--
Email: | Voice (all times): (703) 938-4564
(too) near Washington D.C. | http://www.d-and-d.com/dnichols/DoN.html
--- Black Holes are where God is dividing by zero ---

On 2009-01-22, DoN. Nichols wrote:
On 2009-01-21, SteveB wrote:
I predict the Dow will be at 5,000 July 1, 2009.
^^

Please record your prediction now to authenticate a winner. I'm willing to
pony up $5 to the winner, as should every contestant.

That is a fairly easy bet to lose. If I were offering such a
bet (which I am not), I would say one of:

"Greater than"

"Less than"

certainly *not*

"at".

Too easy to lose on that one.

The person who wins, is the one who is closest to the actual number.

i

Anyone want to keep track?

Not I. I don't even know what the current Dow is -- and I don't
care.

Enjoy,
DoN.


--
Due to extreme spam originating from Google Groups, and their inattention
to spammers, I and many others block all articles originating
from Google Groups. If you want your postings to be seen by
more readers you will need to find a different means of
posting on Usenet.
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Ignoramus15648 wrote:
You have to bet about what happens on July 1, that's the condition of
the contest.
--LOL! That's my birthday; I'll be drunk! :-)

--
"Steamboat Ed" Haas : Do us a favor and rescue
Hacking the Trailing Edge! : a doggie or three...
www.nmpproducts.com
---Decks a-wash in a sea of words---

"Ignoramus15648" wrote in message
...
On 2009-01-21, steamer wrote:
--Pessimist! :-)
I'll bet it tops, oh, 9,000 in maybe 4 years. That 10,000 we had was
mostly hot air and bravado: a bubble that was aching to be popped.


You have to bet about what happens on July 1, that's the condition of
the contest.

The DOW will be wherever it is. The real interesting thing will be which
companies are on that list in July.
There might be a little turnover between now and July.
LOL

JC

On Jan 20, 9:33*pm, "SteveB" wrote:
I predict the Dow will be at 5,000 July 1, 2009.

Please record your prediction now to authenticate a winner. *I'm willing to
pony up $5 to the winner, as should every contestant.

I'm willing to ante up $5...
My guess is 10300.
Ben the optimist

On Jan 22, 10:05*am, steamer wrote:
Ignoramus15648 wrote:
You have to bet about what happens on July 1, that's the condition of
the contest.

* * * * --LOL! That's my birthday; I'll be drunk! :-)

While I'm in a rare bettin' mood...
The dow will be at 10,300 and your blood alcohol will be .17!

"John R. Carroll" wrote:

The DOW will be wherever it is. The real interesting thing will be which
companies are on that list in July.
There might be a little turnover between now and July.
LOL


I've always wondered about the dynamics of SP500 index. I still have a fair chunk of my
of my money there since I have a feeling that it is a better chance than me trying to play
the market by buying and selling stocks.

My thoughts have been that no matter what takes a hit, I only owe some of it and if it
drops off the index, I'll own something else that looks good.

Are you retired now John? Sure hope this drop in the market didn't delay any such plans if
you had them.

Wes

On 2009-01-22, Wes wrote:
I've always wondered about the dynamics of SP500 index. I still have a fair chunk of my
of my money there since I have a feeling that it is a better chance than me trying to play
the market by buying and selling stocks.

I do, as well.

My thoughts have been that no matter what takes a hit, I only owe
some of it and if it drops off the index, I'll own something else
that looks good.

Good thinking.

i

Are you retired now John? Sure hope this drop in the market didn't delay any such plans if
you had them.

Wes

--
Due to extreme spam originating from Google Groups, and their inattention
to spammers, I and many others block all articles originating
from Google Groups. If you want your postings to be seen by
more readers you will need to find a different means of
posting on Usenet.
http://improve-usenet.org/

"steamer" wrote in message
...
Ignoramus15648 wrote:
You have to bet about what happens on July 1, that's the condition of
the contest.

That's easy, it's Canada Day!


Steve R.

"SteveB" wrote in message
...
I predict the Dow will be at 5,000 July 1, 2009.

Please record your prediction now to authenticate a winner. I'm willing
to
pony up $5 to the winner, as should every contestant.

Anyone want to keep track?

Steve


I predict that he'll be equally as good at picking where the stock market is
going as he is at picking a president. In other words, lousy.

Hawke

"Wes" wrote in message
...
"John R. Carroll" wrote:

The DOW will be wherever it is. The real interesting thing will be which
companies are on that list in July.
There might be a little turnover between now and July.
LOL


I've always wondered about the dynamics of SP500 index. I still have a
fair chunk of my
of my money there since I have a feeling that it is a better chance than
me trying to play
the market by buying and selling stocks.

My thoughts have been that no matter what takes a hit, I only owe some of
it and if it
drops off the index, I'll own something else that looks good.

You should be in tax free municipal bonds right now Wes.
There are several funds that hold these - Morningstar is a good one.


Are you retired now John? Sure hope this drop in the market didn't delay
any such plans if
you had them.

Retirement for me is being able to work with great people and refer the
rest. There is always something interesting going on here.
My December sales were an all time high and January is turning out to be a
good month for money. Things are unusually quiet but that doesn't surprise
me. Borrowing costs have sky rocketed, lines of credit have been severely
restricted in a lot of cases and the commercial paper market is insane.
Ambric just closed their doors because they couldn't raise a few million
dollars in bank loans. Thats crazy.

I've now started to buy back in. I don't think it's to soon and I'm holding
June 2009 California Revenue Anticipation Bonds along with a single equity.

I never really expected to retire but I did dump all of my real estate,
equities and commodies positions. I was completely out in 2005 Wes. I saw
this coming. The only other thing I did was pay of my place in Costa Rica.
That and I "adopted" a cat that had been abandoned in the neighborhood. The
owners had been foreclosed on and left kitty behind. Great cat but it never
learned how to kill it's prey. It'll catch just about anything, play with
it - get bored and then loose interest. Damndest thing I ever saw.


JC

On Fri, 23 Jan 2009 03:30:54 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:


"Wes" wrote in message
...
"John R. Carroll" wrote:

The DOW will be wherever it is. The real interesting thing will be which
companies are on that list in July.
There might be a little turnover between now and July.
LOL


I've always wondered about the dynamics of SP500 index. I still have a
fair chunk of my
of my money there since I have a feeling that it is a better chance than
me trying to play
the market by buying and selling stocks.

My thoughts have been that no matter what takes a hit, I only owe some of
it and if it
drops off the index, I'll own something else that looks good.

You should be in tax free municipal bonds right now Wes.
There are several funds that hold these - Morningstar is a good one.


Are you retired now John? Sure hope this drop in the market didn't delay
any such plans if
you had them.

Retirement for me is being able to work with great people and refer the
rest. There is always something interesting going on here.
My December sales were an all time high and January is turning out to be a
good month for money. Things are unusually quiet but that doesn't surprise
me. Borrowing costs have sky rocketed, lines of credit have been severely
restricted in a lot of cases and the commercial paper market is insane.
Ambric just closed their doors because they couldn't raise a few million
dollars in bank loans. Thats crazy.

I've now started to buy back in. I don't think it's to soon and I'm holding
June 2009 California Revenue Anticipation Bonds along with a single equity.

I never really expected to retire but I did dump all of my real estate,
equities and commodies positions. I was completely out in 2005 Wes. I saw
this coming. The only other thing I did was pay of my place in Costa Rica.
That and I "adopted" a cat that had been abandoned in the neighborhood. The
owners had been foreclosed on and left kitty behind. Great cat but it never
learned how to kill it's prey. It'll catch just about anything, play with
it - get bored and then loose interest. Damndest thing I ever saw.


JC

It sure is nice that all the top execs at Merril got their bonuses a
month early, isn't it?
Gerry :-)}
London, Canada

"John R. Carroll" wrote:


"Wes" wrote in message
...
"John R. Carroll" wrote:

You should be in tax free municipal bonds right now Wes.
There are several funds that hold these - Morningstar is a good one.

Well if I had pulled out in time, it would be a good place to have been. I'm sure the
retirement age for me is going to get shoved past 66 before I get there so I still have
time to try to get something back staying where I am at.

The other day, Rush, that guy you don't like talked about his investments. Did the thing
where a money manager did nothing for him and then decided to put his money where he won't
loose it. His concern is that he doesn't want to lose what he has and muni's is just
where he has it.


Are you retired now John? Sure hope this drop in the market didn't delay
any such plans if
you had them.

Retirement for me is being able to work with great people and refer the
rest. There is always something interesting going on here.

You are a lucky man. You love what you are doing, don't have to do it and can pick what
you do. That is a measure of success.

My December sales were an all time high and January is turning out to be a
good month for money. Things are unusually quiet but that doesn't surprise
me. Borrowing costs have sky rocketed, lines of credit have been severely
restricted in a lot of cases and the commercial paper market is insane.
Ambric just closed their doors because they couldn't raise a few million
dollars in bank loans. Thats crazy.

Down the road, I'm a bit concerned about my employer being able to renew a note. The
company is well run but, as you just said, things are crazy.

I've now started to buy back in. I don't think it's to soon and I'm holding
June 2009 California Revenue Anticipation Bonds along with a single equity.

I never really expected to retire but I did dump all of my real estate,
equities and commodies positions. I was completely out in 2005 Wes. I saw
this coming. The only other thing I did was pay of my place in Costa Rica.
That and I "adopted" a cat that had been abandoned in the neighborhood. The
owners had been foreclosed on and left kitty behind. Great cat but it never
learned how to kill it's prey. It'll catch just about anything, play with
it - get bored and then loose interest. Damndest thing I ever saw.

Trust me, waking up to a dead rodent in bed, isn't all you think it might be. Cats like
to show their work to their nominal masters.

Mom used to wake up with dead critters in her bed since Frisky liked to show off. Count
yourself lucky that your kitty is ADD when it comes to prey.


Wes

"Wes" wrote in message
...
"John R. Carroll" wrote:


"Wes" wrote in message
...
"John R. Carroll" wrote:

You should be in tax free municipal bonds right now Wes.
There are several funds that hold these - Morningstar is a good one.

Well if I had pulled out in time, it would be a good place to have been.
I'm sure the
retirement age for me is going to get shoved past 66 before I get there so
I still have
time to try to get something back staying where I am at.

From Jim Bianco (www.biancoresearch.com) - prices quoted below are from a
few days ago.
"Comment - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted
index. The divisor for the DJIA is 7.964782. That means that every $1 a DJIA
stock loses, the index loses 7.96 points, regardless of the company's market
capitalization.

"Dow Jones, the keeper of the DJIA, has an unwritten rule that any DJIA
stock that gets below $10 gets tossed out. As of last night's close (January
20), The DJIA had the following stocks less than $10 ...

Citi (C) = $2.80

GM (GM) = $3.50

B of A (BAC) = $5.10

Alcoa (AA) = $8.35

"If all four of these stocks went to zero on today's open, the DJIA would
lose only 157.3 points.

"The financials in the DJIA are ...

Citi (C) = $2.80

B of A (BAC) = $5.10

Amex (AXP) = 15.60

JP Morgan (JPM) = $18.09

"If every financial stock in the DJIA went to zero on today's open, it would
only lose 331.25 points, less than it lost yesterday (332.13 points).

"If you want to add GE into the financial sector, a debatable proposition,
then: GE (GE) = $12.93

"If the four financial stocks above and GE opened at zero today, the DJIA
would only lose 434.24 points.

"The reason the DJIA is outperforming on the downside is the index committee
is not doing it job and replacing sub-$10 stocks, and the financials are so
beaten up that they cannot push the index much lower.

"So what is driving the index? The highest-priced stocks:

IBM (IBM) = $81.98

Exxon (XOM) = $76.29

Chevron (CHV) = $68.31

P&G (PG) = $57.34

McDonalds (MCD) = $57.07

J&J (JNJ) = $56.75

3M (MMM) = $53.92

Wal-Mart (WMT) = $50.56

"For instance, if all the sub-$10 stocks listed above, all the financials
listed above, and GE opened at zero, the DJIA loses 528.63 points. To repeat
if C, BAC, GM, AA, JPM, AXP and GE all open at zero, the DJIA loses 528.63
points.

"If IBM opens at zero, it loses 652.95 points [IBM has risen since then -
JM]. So, the DJIA says that IBM has more influence on the index than all the
financials, autos, GE, and Alcoa combined.

"The DJIA is not normal as the index committee is not doing their job during
this crisis, possibly because to the political fallout of kicking out a Citi
or GM. As a result, this index is now severely distorted as it has a tiny
weighting in financials and autos."

You could add Microsoft to the list Jim created and not be over where IBM is
today in terms of the DJIA index.

A 10% positive move for IBM would move the Dow up by over 60 points. A 10%
move by Citigroup would increase the Dow by less than 3 points. Having
stocks with low prices clearly prevents the Dow from declining as much as
other market-cap-weighted indexes like the S&P 500.



The other day, Rush, that guy you don't like talked about his investments.
Did the thing
where a money manager did nothing for him and then decided to put his
money where he won't
loose it. His concern is that he doesn't want to lose what he has and
muni's is just
where he has it.

It's also the only place to get a decent return.

JC

On Sat, 24 Jan 2009 18:25:19 -0500, Wes wrote:

"John R. Carroll" wrote:


"Wes" wrote in message
...


I never really expected to retire but I did dump all of my real estate,
equities and commodies positions. I was completely out in 2005 Wes. I saw
this coming. The only other thing I did was pay of my place in Costa Rica.
That and I "adopted" a cat that had been abandoned in the neighborhood. The
owners had been foreclosed on and left kitty behind. Great cat but it never
learned how to kill it's prey. It'll catch just about anything, play with
it - get bored and then loose interest. Damndest thing I ever saw.

Trust me, waking up to a dead rodent in bed, isn't all you think it might be. Cats like
to show their work to their nominal masters.

Mom used to wake up with dead critters in her bed since Frisky liked to show off. Count
yourself lucky that your kitty is ADD when it comes to prey.


Wes
Second son got a laugh out of that, but posted the comment that it is
even worse if the "gift" goes undiscovered for a few days!
Gerry :-)}
London, Canada