Earlier this year, I made a post stating that I believed the "cost of
doing business" in places like China was going to increase faster than I had
ever imagined... due to the pollution and mining & industrial accidents. I
said I thought it would only be a matter of time before they had polluted
enough of their own rivers, killed enough of their miners, and maimed enough
of their factory workers... and would end up with an EPA, an OSHA, a Bureau
of Mine Safety and all of the other beaurocratic agencies that make it so
expensive to operate a business in the US.
The "Work Safety Ministry" is probably the very beginning of the
eventual end for cheap production in China?
They may be able to produce goods cheaper than we can for many years...
but maybe not cheap enough to ship them over here and still be "competitive"
with domestic producers... especially if fuel costs stay high.
It may take a few years, but I really believe that it's starting.
David

"The work safety ministry was created March this year to try to tackle the
high number of industrial accidents in China."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_...s.php?id=66422

Beijing (dpa) - At least three people are dead and 100 missing following an
explosion in a Chinese mine on Wednesday, the latest in a series of
disasters that have claimed the lives of hundreds of miners this year.

Over 120 miners had been working underground in the Liuguantun mine in
Tangshan in the province of Hebei near Beijing, when a blast occurred in the
mine, the official news agency, Xinhua, reported.

The bodies of three dead miners were recovered and 99 others were still
missing, Xinhua reported.

It was unclear whether the other miners had been able to reach safety.

The accident is the fourth such mining disaster in the past 10 days in
China.

Some 229 were feared dead in the first three accidents. Rescue workers were
still searching for 42 miners missing for five days in a flooded mine in
Henan in Central China.

The recent spate of accidents in the industry showed mining in China was
"chaotic and lacked security measures", Chinese premier Wen Jiabao was
quoted by Minister of the General Administration of Work Safety, Li Zhongyi,
as saying.

The work safety ministry was created March this year to try to tackle the
high number of industrial accidents in China."

The "work safety ministry" talked about in that article is yet another
set of officials that you have to bribe to run your dangerous
operation. Based on what I've seen, about 80% of the cost of doing
business in China is greasing palms, and only 20% goes into wages. With
a new ministry it'll be 85%/15%.

Tim.

David Courtney wrote:
Earlier this year, I made a post stating that I believed the "cost of
doing business" in places like China was going to increase faster than I had
ever imagined... due to the pollution and mining & industrial accidents. I
said I thought it would only be a matter of time before they had polluted
enough of their own rivers, killed enough of their miners, and maimed enough
of their factory workers... and would end up with an EPA, an OSHA, a Bureau
of Mine Safety and all of the other beaurocratic agencies that make it so
expensive to operate a business in the US.
The "Work Safety Ministry" is probably the very beginning of the
eventual end for cheap production in China?
This is the natural balancing of all these economic changes. I was
amazed to find that in about 1905, 100 railway workers were killed PER
DAY in the US! This was before Westinghouse's pneumatic brakes came out.

The big one is the benzene leak into the river. This one hasn't even
played out yet, the benzene is still flowing down river, and hasn't
reached Russia, yet. But, China is having to turn off the municipal
water service for 4-5 days as the benzene passes each town.

Jon

"David Courtney" wrote in message
...
Earlier this year, I made a post stating that I believed the "cost of
doing business" in places like China was going to increase faster than I
had ever imagined... due to the pollution and mining & industrial
accidents.
snip

I heard on the radio (so it must be true) that workers are trying to
unionize at a high rate because the towns the live in are so polluted they
are getting sick.

ALL of my friends that do business in China are complaining about cost
increases, long lead times and fubared shipments.

The pendulum IS swinging!!!

Jon Elson wrote On 12/07/05 10:23,:
David Courtney wrote:

Earlier this year, I made a post stating that I believed the "cost of
doing business" in places like China was going to increase faster than I had
ever imagined... due to the pollution and mining & industrial accidents. I
said I thought it would only be a matter of time before they had polluted
enough of their own rivers, killed enough of their miners, and maimed enough
of their factory workers... and would end up with an EPA, an OSHA, a Bureau
of Mine Safety and all of the other beaurocratic agencies that make it so
expensive to operate a business in the US.
The "Work Safety Ministry" is probably the very beginning of the
eventual end for cheap production in China?

This is the natural balancing of all these economic changes. I was
amazed to find that in about 1905, 100 railway workers were killed PER
DAY in the US! This was before Westinghouse's pneumatic brakes came out.

The big one is the benzene leak into the river. This one hasn't even
played out yet, the benzene is still flowing down river, and hasn't
reached Russia, yet. But, China is having to turn off the municipal
water service for 4-5 days as the benzene passes each town.

Jon


The benzene leak is a good example. It was suppressed by the People's
Republic until the news could not be stopped, because the people downriver
had to shut off their water.

Drawing parallels with the USA is dangerous. Our Laissez-faire government
ignored safety problems, but China's is actively looking to suppress
freedom of information there.

"David Courtney" wrote in message
...
Earlier this year, I made a post stating that I believed the "cost of
doing business" in places like China was going to increase faster than I
had ever imagined... due to the pollution and mining & industrial
accidents. I said I thought it would only be a matter of time before they
had polluted enough of their own rivers, killed enough of their miners,
and maimed enough of their factory workers... and would end up with an
EPA, an OSHA, a Bureau of Mine Safety and all of the other beaurocratic
agencies that make it so expensive to operate a business in the US.
The "Work Safety Ministry" is probably the very beginning of the
eventual end for cheap production in China?
They may be able to produce goods cheaper than we can for many years...
but maybe not cheap enough to ship them over here and still be
"competitive" with domestic producers... especially if fuel costs stay
high.
It may take a few years, but I really believe that it's starting.
David

"The work safety ministry was created March this year to try to tackle the
high number of industrial accidents in China."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_...s.php?id=66422

Beijing (dpa) - At least three people are dead and 100 missing following
an explosion in a Chinese mine on Wednesday, the latest in a series of
disasters that have claimed the lives of hundreds of miners this year.

Over 120 miners had been working underground in the Liuguantun mine in
Tangshan in the province of Hebei near Beijing, when a blast occurred in
the mine, the official news agency, Xinhua, reported.

The bodies of three dead miners were recovered and 99 others were still
missing, Xinhua reported.

It was unclear whether the other miners had been able to reach safety.

The accident is the fourth such mining disaster in the past 10 days in
China.

Some 229 were feared dead in the first three accidents. Rescue workers
were still searching for 42 miners missing for five days in a flooded mine
in Henan in Central China.

The recent spate of accidents in the industry showed mining in China was
"chaotic and lacked security measures", Chinese premier Wen Jiabao was
quoted by Minister of the General Administration of Work Safety, Li
Zhongyi, as saying.

The work safety ministry was created March this year to try to tackle the
high number of industrial accidents in China."
Reasonable and sensible safety measures will increase productivity,
reliability and control costs. Imagine the disruption to the mining industry
caused by those blasts.

I've been saying for years, they'll trash their water system.
You can buy food for a billion people, but drinking water?

A business associate that travels over there several times a year confirmed
my suspicions about their impending environmental disasters.


The work safety ministry was created March this year to try to tackle the
high number of industrial accidents in China."
Reasonable and sensible safety measures will increase productivity,
reliability and control costs. Imagine the disruption to the mining
industry caused by those blasts.

Jon Elson wrote:
This is the natural balancing of all these economic changes. I was
amazed to find that in about 1905, 100 railway workers were killed PER
DAY in the US! This was before Westinghouse's pneumatic brakes came out.


You sure about that number, Jon? I'd love to see a reference for it.

John Martin

On Wed, 07 Dec 2005 20:27:18 GMT, "Tom Gardner"
wrote:


"David Courtney" wrote in message
...
Earlier this year, I made a post stating that I believed the "cost of
doing business" in places like China was going to increase faster than I
had ever imagined... due to the pollution and mining & industrial
accidents.
snip

I heard on the radio (so it must be true) that workers are trying to
unionize at a high rate because the towns the live in are so polluted they
are getting sick.

ALL of my friends that do business in China are complaining about cost
increases, long lead times and fubared shipments.

The pendulum IS swinging!!!

A well known tire maker shipped their truck molds to China. Agreement
was to pay for only tires that passed US DOT standards. In 6 months,
there hasn't been one. They are sold in China.

"David Courtney" wrote in message
...
They may be able to produce goods cheaper than we can for many years...

It has never been cheap to produce goods in China. It is just a question
of who (or what) bears the actual costs. The Chinese version of OSHA, EPA, etc.
etc. etc. will (probably very inefficiently) force the final customer of the
goods to bear more of the costs.

Vaughn

So, do you want some sort of Presidential commendation for being the ONLY
guy in the ENTIRE WORLD to predict what is happening in China?????

Fact is, the large companies currently moving production facilities to
China understand that it isn't just about the pennies-per-day they pay
Chinese workers.

They are all looking to cash in on the lifestyle boom that is anticipated
once the Chinese people begin to have a little jingle in their pocket.

Of course, the Communist government just MIGHT throw a roadblock or two out
there.

What I cannot understand, is after fighting Communism for so long, we are
rushing forward to support it in a way that winning wars could have never
done for them saying, "Here's a bunch of money to reward you for the
oppressive lifestyles you foist on your people."

We didn't support Castro.

Why are we supporting the Chinese Communists so strongly?

-----snip-----
We didn't support Castro.

Why are we supporting the Chinese Communists so strongly?

I assume this isn't a rhetorical question???

The answer is MONEY. Who profits? In Castro's case the amount of
manufacturing that could have been transferred to Cuba is miniscule in
terms of the US capability. Same goes for the potential sales of
consumer goods once the locals have "jingle in their pockets".
Therfore, why bother?

China, on the other hand, represents an almost unlimited market when
viewed by blinkered or $$$$$ starred eyes.

Because I don't think that consumerism, the way westerners know it, is
transferrable to
China. With the population of China being what it is I cannot imagine
"two cars in every driveway" to say nothing of road space to drive on
or the pollution this would cause even with clean burning engines.

Here I am going to stick my neck out and invite comment and criticism.
I firmly believe that over the next 5 to 10 years the western auto
industry is going to get decimated by battery powered cars and busses
from China. They already offer electric motorcycles, cars, transport &
tour busses with air conditioning with operating ranges of 300 miles or
so on a single battery charge. The price is comparable to Diesel
powered units with the operating costs less than 10% of those for
fossil fuel.

Considering that we already have the fuelling infrastructure in place
for electric battery powered cars.......this system runs practically at
idle during the night yet is able to supply power to electric stoves,
clothes dryers, tea kettles, etc. etc. simultaneously.

During the off-peak hours this capacity could be utilized to charge
propulsion batteries.

These batteries are the relatively new Lithium-Polymer cells with a
cell voltage of 3.6 V and energy density many times that of lead acid
cells. Their weight is practically negligible when compared to
Pb-H2SO4 cells.

Fellow in California built a sports car using these cells.....0 to 100
Km in 3 seconds or so, beating ALL high-priced contenders, bar none.
This car can cruise at 80 MPH for over 300 miles. The downside?? Cost
of the Lithium-Polymer cells and the charging circuits. But it IS
doable today, with today's technology and EXISTING energy distribution
infrastructure.

All that is needed is political will and business vision.

Unfortunately I am not that good a salesman nor do I have the money to
pursue this.

It is food for thought, especially if you are employed in the auto
industry.

Wolfgang

Ps.: Hybrids are a mis-step if used over longer distance driving. For
stop and go traffic their advantage is lost because the battery
presently cannot be recharged by plugging in at home, or at work. W

* wrote:


So, do you want some sort of Presidential commendation for being the ONLY
guy in the ENTIRE WORLD to predict what is happening in China?????

Fact is, the large companies currently moving production facilities to
China understand that it isn't just about the pennies-per-day they pay
Chinese workers.

They are all looking to cash in on the lifestyle boom that is anticipated
once the Chinese people begin to have a little jingle in their pocket.

Of course, the Communist government just MIGHT throw a roadblock or two
out there.

What I cannot understand, is after fighting Communism for so long, we are
rushing forward to support it in a way that winning wars could have never
done for them saying, "Here's a bunch of money to reward you for the
oppressive lifestyles you foist on your people."

We didn't support Castro.

Why are we supporting the Chinese Communists so strongly?

Because somebody in the US government finally got a clue?

--
--John
to email, dial "usenet" and validate
(was jclarke at eye bee em dot net)

On 10 Dec 2005 08:50:52 -0800, wrote:

We didn't support Castro.

Why are we supporting the Chinese Communists so strongly?

I assume this isn't a rhetorical question???

The answer is MONEY. Who profits? In Castro's case the amount of
manufacturing that could have been transferred to Cuba is miniscule in
terms of the US capability. Same goes for the potential sales of
consumer goods once the locals have "jingle in their pockets".
Therfore, why bother?

China, on the other hand, represents an almost unlimited market when
viewed by blinkered or $$$$$ starred eyes.

Because I don't think that consumerism, the way westerners know it, is
transferrable to
China. With the population of China being what it is I cannot imagine
"two cars in every driveway" to say nothing of road space to drive on
or the pollution this would cause even with clean burning engines.

But we dont have to put but one car on each Block to still have one
hell of a place to sell our products.

And frankly..with so much eye candy becoming available to the Chinese
people...creeping capitalism is right behind it. It may not be exactly
the same shape as Western Capitalism..but it will be far closer than
Communism.

Chuckle...it wasnt just the pony soldiers that destroyed the Native
Americans.it was the traders and shopkeepers with their shiney knifes,
repeating rifles and bolts of cloth that suckered the Native Americans
out of their way of life, and put them on the reservations. That and
wiping out the buffalo. But the trend was on, even before the buffalo
herds died out. The Cherokee were prime examples, as were many Eastern
indian nations.

Gunner

"Pax Americana is a philosophy. Hardly an empire.
Making sure other people play nice and dont kill each other (and us)
off in job lots is hardly empire building, particularly when you give
them self determination under "play nice" rules.

Think of it as having your older brother knock the **** out of you
for torturing the cat." Gunner

Earlier this year, I made a post stating that I believed the "cost
of
doing business" in places like China was going to increase faster than I
had
ever imagined... due to the pollution and mining & industrial accidents.
I
said I thought it would only be a matter of time before they had
polluted
enough of their own rivers, killed enough of their miners, and maimed
enough
of their factory workers... and would end up with an EPA, an OSHA, a
Bureau
of Mine Safety and all of the other beaurocratic agencies that make it
so
expensive to operate a business in the US.
The "Work Safety Ministry" is probably the very beginning of the
eventual end for cheap production in China?

This is the natural balancing of all these economic changes. I was
amazed to find that in about 1905, 100 railway workers were killed PER
DAY in the US! This was before Westinghouse's pneumatic brakes came
out.

The big one is the benzene leak into the river. This one hasn't even
played out yet, the benzene is still flowing down river, and hasn't
reached Russia, yet. But, China is having to turn off the municipal
water service for 4-5 days as the benzene passes each town.

Jon


The benzene leak is a good example. It was suppressed by the People's
Republic until the news could not be stopped, because the people downriver
had to shut off their water.

Drawing parallels with the USA is dangerous. Our Laissez-faire government
ignored safety problems, but China's is actively looking to suppress
freedom of information there.


In a country with over a billion people what difference does it make to the
Chinese governmnent to lose a million people here or a million there because
of inadequate safety procedures? They're probably glad and consider it an
unplanned population control benefit.

Hawke