On 27 Jan 2005 07:33:42 -0800, "Gus" wrote:
Probabilities are measured on a scale of 0 to 1.
Even a "zero" probability is not an indication that an event will never
happen.
A zero probability states that an even "almost never" happens. A
probability of one states that an event "almost always" happens.
Therefore, probability theory would state that, while the probability
of rolling a 7 is zero, there is still a chance (however small) of it
occuring.
Let me put this another way. Prior to 9/11/2001, most Americans would
have said that the probability of two airliners striking both towers of
the World Trade Center within minutes of each other and destroying
both, was zero.
Yet, it DID happen.
LRod actually did make a cogent point in one post that he was willing
to settle for a "reasonable estimate". That is actually a good way of
explaining the situation.
The lesson to be learned here is to refrain from making absolute
statements like "zero chance".
The problem with this analysis is that it attempts to compare two
entirely different hypotheses. While the events of 9/11 were certainly
unthinkable and had, even if considered, an extremely low probability,
the fact is all of the mechanisms to make it a an eventual reality
were always in place.
In the case of the six sided die, there isn't any chance, not one,
zero of a seven coming up. It isn't physically possible. There are
only six choices--six possibilities. A seventh possibilty does not
exist. There is zero chance for it to occur.
But obviously six (or seven) events is too complex for some of our
members. Let's make it simple. The classic example for demonstrating
probability is tossing a coin. Whenever the event is postulated it is
always expressed as, "what is the possible outcome of a coin toss," or
words to that effect. The answer of course is either "heads" or
"tails."
One can then calculate and demonstrate all of the probability
machinations one wants on the probability of any particular toss,
however, if one were to say the probability of a toss coming up turkey
feathers (or cream of tartar) is zero but could still occur is utter
nonsense since turkey feathers is not in the set of possible outcomes.
There is zero chance of getting turkey feathers from a coin toss.
In order for there to be probabability there must be possibility. The
burning helium mentioned earlier is an example. Can't happen. The laws
of physics (or more accurately, chemistry) dictate this. One can't
even express a probability of it happening.Those who don't know where
to find these "laws of physics" need read no further; the rest will be
far too complex.
I made my point about an estimate because I knew it must include the
word "zero" which is what seems to have so many up in arms.
Now, having said all of that, I will concede this: "zero chance" or
absolutism, as one of my fans described, may not be technically
accurate when measured to the painfully smallest degree. However, if
you are living life in a real world, breathing real air, eating real
food, driving real cars on real streets, hey, if you're woodworking
with real wood and real tools, then you are already engaging in
countless activities all of which have probabilities of danger orders
of magnitude higher than an explosion of dust in a home shop dust
collection system. That anyone would pick the demonstrably miniscule
potential of that event on which to take a stand on personal risk
management makes me double over in mirth.
- -
LRod
Master Woodbutcher and seasoned termite
Shamelessly whoring my website since 1999
http://www.woodbutcher.net