On Sun, 26 Dec 2004 08:58:51 -0700 Big Bill wrote:
It's a distinct change *over the period of time we've been measuring.*
We havn't been measuring even an eyeblink of time yet, so all we know
is that it's a change in extremely recent history.
It's true that the observation time is negligible in terms of the
earth's age. I'll grant you that. If you feel that only observation
over a significant portion of the earth's age will convince you, then
we will have to agree that you will never be convinced.
We have absolutely no idea of how much the ozone layers have changed
over even the last century, much less long enough to make some sort of
rational claim of an abnormal change over a long period if time.
Maybe when we have been measuring the ozone layers for even as short a
time as 50 years, we might find a cycle that's simply repeating.
But to make such a claim with such an extremely short data gathering
period is simply bad science.
It's important to recognize that in addition to the ozone
concentrations, the fluorocarbon compound concentrations have also
been followed. The chemistry is known and the reaction rates are
known. We also know when Freon first entered the lower atmosphere, and
the rates of diffusion to the upper atmosphere have been calculated
and verified.
The half-life of the fluorocarbons in the upper atmosphere is
extremely long, but it can be calculated, and the calculations agree
with the observed concentrations. The body of evidence is complete and
consistent. To my knowledge, all the debate on this topic withing the
scientific community was settled many years ago.
The claim that this may just be a normally occuring anomaly would be
reasonable if we didn't have additional data to support the
conclusions, but this is not the case. The claim of "bad science" is
really just the pot calling the kettle black. The science has all been
done; the fight is all in the political arena. Unfortunately, the
current political climate is more comfortable with faith than facts.
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Jim Adney
Madison, WI 53711 USA
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