Its patently obvious what happened.

(i) Tony and GWB decide, fr reasons as yet unclear, to have a war.
(ii) Tony realises there are thin grounds, and not enough to persuade
the laber Party. Or the UN. Full of peaceniks ever since CND.
(iii) There is therefore a need to prodce a compelling document.
(iv) a reviw of intelligence material and other garbage is put togeher,
and Campbell is put in the process to make sure its polished.
(v) it isn't strong enough, so a few words are changed to completely
change the meaning of the document from 'potential, possible threat' to
'real actual threat'. Tony is a lawyer. T estrongest legal defence for
war is an imminment and present danger to national security. Hey presto,
we have one. Regime change and freeing opressed peoles is what the Nazis
did in the Sudetenland, allegedly. Not now considered adequate excuse.
Nr is UN mandates ten yera old with very imprecise wording.

(vi) Kelly, and probably others, know this is balls. He has been there,
and he knows what the size of the threat is better than anyone. Kelly
makes his reports internally, they are brushed aside as 'not being the
sort of thing the PM wants to hear old boy' 'Campbell is driving this
one, and he won't want your input'.

(vii) Kelley is ****ed off and many of his chums are ****ed off. He
decides to have a few quiet chats with some press chums.

(viii) Unfortunately, one of them is Gilligan, who is clever, hates
Campbell, and has rather few morals. Gilligaan gets more out of Kelly
than Kelly wanted to say, including the one fatal slip - he mutters
'Campbell' under his breath: Now Kelly merely wanted to indicate that
the document was not in accord with the views of many in Intelligence,
and seems to be being subverted by political processes...

(ix) But Gilligan has an axe to grind, he adds two and two together and
makes five, and claims that inside sources have told him that the
government, in the shape of Campbell, has sexed up the dossier. IN ORDER
TO MISLEAD PARLIAMENT AND THE PUBLIC. This is stupid, Never put in words
that the average smart person can work out for himself...see later, viz
'Hutton report'..for the smart way to shop a PM..

(x) Campbell, and government, caught in the headlights of the incoming
express train, panic and deny everytthing. So far its only an 'unknown
single source'....

(xi) It becomes pretty clear its Kelly. The MOD leans on him VERY hard.
First of all he is in breach of contract, possibly in breach of official
secrets act, and he is going to be cast to the Wolves. His only chance
is to deny that he ever mentioned Campbell, and hope like hell that
Gilligan will retract and take some of the blame, and hope the
conversation was not recorded. He is lucky. Gilligan is not that
efficient, and it isn't. But he is unlucky also. Gilligan stcks to his
guns, and with hindsight rather stupidly, he is backed up not only for
hi srifght to publish but also (key piunt) in teh veracity of his story,
by Greg Dyke. Bad mistake Greg. If th Beeb had said 'w stand by iur
roght to publish single sorce alleagtins, tho we make no claim as to
their accuracy' all would have been well...but the Beeb smells the fear
sweating out of time and Campbell...and close for the kill. It IS true
of course, but can it be proved to be... ?

(xii) Kelley is now in terrible position. Because the Honor of The
Blair is impugned, as well as that of Campbell Chief Rat, this is
turning into a bitch of a fight, and he is right in the ruddy middle.
His name comes out (after he is promised that it won't, as a payment for
coming forward) his job, salary and pension are on the line, and he is
advised to lie to the committee investigation and deny he ever mentioned
Campbell. Because if the whole story comes out, not only are Campbell
and Blair in the dock for tampering with evidence, but so are his bosses
and the whole of the JIC. They are all compromised.

(xiii) Kelley is totally distraught. His career is over, he may face
criminal charges under the official secrets act, he has learnt to his
cost that blowing the whistle in the public interest nearly always loses
you your job (happened to a friend of mine - another story tho)..he says
tha 'I never told him that' but leaves out 'but frankly he got it 99%
right because he is a sharper cookie than I expected, and a damn sight
less scrupuois as well'

(xiv) Kelley writes a letter and tops himself.c With luck, his wife will
still get her pension, and he won't go to prison.

(xv) The heat is now really on, and desperate things are being done at
all levels in the JIC/MOD and in government to cover up the ghastly
mess. Kellys letter vanishes never to be seen again. A carefully
specified enquiry is set up to establish the innocence of the prime
minister in the one thing he was probably fairly innocent of - the
actual outing of Kelly. OK he was chairaman of a meeting where it was
decided that they wouldn't actually out him, but would tell the press
more than enough to guess at the three or four possible suspects, and
confirm any guesses they might make. That is sufficient to maintain a
position of 'credible deniability'- Our Tone never actually said 'out
him' merely sat there, and didn't stop it when he had the power too. He
IS a lawyer, after all..passive inaction is harder to prove than
positive action..

(xvi) Hutton is chosen because he can be relied upon to support the
forces of the establishment - he always has in the past. Unfailingly.

(xvii) Hutton tho, is a bit peeved, he decides to gather in all the
evidence anyway, and present it in detail, and then come to the 'right
decision' on Campbell and Bliars direct involvement in Kellys death
(negligible proved) but leave out any reference in his conclusions as to
their responsbility in the process that put a couple of dodgy dossiers
up for public consumption and put such intense pressure on an honest man
to reveal the inner workings of that process to a journalist. His
reasons for so doing may be simpl to have a quiet life, or maybe there
was wicked sense of dry humour in there - he knows a whitewash will
inflame public opinion more than a balanced judgement ...

(xviii) In order to do that he needs to take a swipe at the BBC. Maybe
they haven't been kind to him in the past - Bloody Sunday etc etc.

So there you have it. The real facts behind the news. Based on what? On
years of dealing in boardooms with sleazy people like the Campbells and
Blairs, with corporate politics, and with the likes of Kelly, and
Gilligan. Plus the evidence of Hutton. I have seen the most
extraordinary decisions made by managing directors, and upheld by
boards, simply due to pressures being applied. I know of one MD who has
sacked, or forced the resignation of, no less than four directors (on
after another at decent intervals) and countless staff, who disagreed
with what turned out to be a disastrous policy. It happens every day.
The natural response of a weak leader is to oversell his ideas, get
consensus, pass the job along to someone dispensable, and sack them when
it blows up.

The ONLY people to come out with any semblance of dignity are the BBC,
and Kelly. Because they have resigned (permamently, in Kellys case). For
the good of the BBC (or his family, in Kellys case), not because they
were anywhere near as guilty. They are the ones showing real public
responsibility - the BBC (and in Kellys case public interest and his
family as well) is more important than their jobs.

NOTHING is more important then Tonys job, to Tony. Even Campbell had to
go...quietly, well in advance of any report, in case it was
negative..and if things turn out right, he will be back for sure. He is
too useful, but becamne a liability - if the balance swings back,...


I hope that clarifies things. That is not a legal conclusin borne out
ofcarefl examinatin of teh undenianle evidence. That is a sane
assessment of the evidence, interpolated with most probable motives and
actions by thiose involved.

In short, I think it probably represents what most of the people who
have really thought the thing through, roughly feel happened.