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Rod Speed Rod Speed is offline
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Default OT: Latering thinking puzzle "Why do more peoplre die on their bithday than any other day?"

NY wrote
Rod Speed wrote


But will there necessarily be any correlation between these two events.
[birth and death]?


There doesn’t need to be. The fact that birthdays arent even distributed
is all you need.


That should be "blindingly obvious" even to a ten-year-old at school.


But then you clearly are a slow learner :-(


Because there are more babies born during a certain time of year, will
there necessarily be more deaths at that *same* time of year?


Not the same time of year, the same DAY. Basic statistics.


Maybe I should spell that out more explicitly.


Given that some specific days of the year have more births than
others, just the fact that they have more is enough to skew the
stats with the death occurring on the same day of the year.


I can see that [highly fictitious example] if there are 10 births on
January (of any year) and 1 birth each of all the other days (of any
year), then 1 January will be the birthday of lots of people whereas any
other date will be the birthday of just one person.


But why does that mean that a person who is born on 1 January will be any
more likely also to die on 1 January of a subsequent (*) year than on any
other day of that same subsequent year,


Doesn’t need to be, ALL you need is the peak
in birth date to get the statistical result.

just because lots of *other* people were born on that day? Is there some
biological property that makes a person more likely to die n*365.25 days
from their birth, for various integer values of n, than on any other day?


See above.

It's probably very obvious to you,


Yes it is, and to most 10 year olds too :-(

but it's not to me. Your statement "Given that some specific days of the
year have more births than others, just the fact that they have more is
enough to skew the stats with the death occurring on the same day of the
year." *Why* is it enough to skew the stats?


Because there are more births on that day of the year
and so its statistically more likely that that will coincide
with the death day even if the deaths are evenly distributed
thruout the year. Which they arent in fact.

The problem with something being "very obvious" is that it's sometimes
difficult to explain to someone else *why* it is obvious.


Not really.

(*) I'm excluding neonatal deaths.


Yeah, me too because as I recall you said that
the obnoxious person excluded those too.