Thread: Premium Bonds
View Single Post
  #32   Report Post  
Posted to uk.d-i-y
John Rumm John Rumm is offline
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 25,191
Default Premium Bonds

On 06/06/2021 22:27, Robin wrote:
On 06/06/2021 20:38, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:59, Robin wrote:
On 05/06/2021 21:14, John Rumm wrote:
On 05/06/2021 16:22, Andy Bennet wrote:
On 05/06/2021 15:56, Peter Johnson wrote:
On Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:52:58 +0100, "Jim GM4DHJ ..."
wrote:

Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this
normal ?

Depends how big your holding is, I'd say,

agreed

and how recently it was
purchased.

Nope


Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12
months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding
purchased, say, five or ten years ago.

Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of
winning regardless of when it was purchased.

I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any
other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases,
the chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K
bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win
than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued.

I think not...

(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate
that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)

...because your presumption is not correct.


erm, I think you just confirmed my presumption *is* correct - they do
adjust the payout to account for the changing number of active bonds.


Yes.

And no

I should have made clear I was contesting your "from time to time".
That¬* seemed to me to imply possible delay between changes in the total
number of bonds and changes in the prize fund.


Actually I was just highligting that I have not looked at the details in
a very long time (not held any bonds for 20 years) - so I did not know
what frequency they did the adjustments at.

Indeed, without such
delay I don't see how you can get the result you predicted ("if you
bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to
win than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued").¬* A result that
is prevented by the month by month adjustment.


Indeed - I was not suggesting that the claims that more recent ones are
more likely to win was actually correct - only suggesting a mechanism
that some might imaginine that would allow this to be true (hence the "I
suspect the logic is that"). Apologies if I did not express that very well.

I think.


The monthly adjustment sounds quite plausible... especially since its a
fully automated system.


--
Cheers,

John.

/================================================== ===============\
| Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
| John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk |
\================================================= ================/