"trader_4" wrote in message
...
On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 9:59:11 PM UTC-4, wrote:

You advocated last spring that it wasn't a big deal and that we should
just
let her rip. You're here now spreading FUD about the vaccines and masks.
You've made plenty of posts complaining that the death numbers must be
significantly inflated because hospitals are lying about the deaths to
make
money.

Let'r rip was your characterization. I just said the draconian path
wasn't warranted and we are seeing that here now.
I won't be surprised if we see more infections after spring break but
we won't have that hospital overload everyone was predicting. In fact
there were very few remote areas that even saw anything close to that.
Even in the worst hot spot in the country, NJ/NJ they never ran out of
ventilators and they sent the hospital ship home because it wasn't
being used. By the summer ventilators were a glut on the market. I
told you before, one of my former IBM buddies sells medical equipment
and he said there were warehouses full of them they couldn't sell. It
was just another irrational response to a problem.

Here you are again, Mr. Monday Quarterback, with the would have, could
have,
should have, AFTER the fact. I suppose you think Trump's lie and deny
was the
better approach, instead of getting the resources in place to save lives
in a worst
case scenario. And you act like we were nowhere near that. NYC
hospitals were
overflowing, trailers in the streets with dead bodies, field hospitals in
Central Park
and Javits taking in patients. Of course if Cuomo and Di Blasio hadn't
urgently
requested those resources under the conditions of the time and Covid got
worse
instead of better, you'd be here blaming them for not acting.









Trump added $6 trillion in 4 years,

Funny you weren't complaining about that when he cut the tax rates,
significantly
increased spending, in his first year. The deficits doubled to $1
trillion. Nor did we
see you complaining as it continued to pile up under Trump. But now
suddenly under
Biden, well, now the deficits are something for you to bring up. No
surprise there.

You just weren't paying attention or you consciously ignored what I
said. All I ever said was the Trump tax cut benefitted the working
class and that is undeniable. I never said it was a good idea.

Thanks for admitting it, right in the above. Like I said, you didn't
complain about
the Trump tax cut and increased spending on the deficits, but now you're
complaing
about it under Biden.
Again you are not reading. I have always complained about these
omnibus spending bills. That includes Trump's give away that was a
christmas tree for every left wing cause Chuck and Nancy could come up
with.

Missing in the above is complaining about Trump's tax cut. And I don't
recall
you complaining about any spending under Trump either, though you may
have.



Your main problem is that I don't hate Trump enough for you.

Biden has already added a third of
that in 2 months with promises of much more. It is not a good
trend.

At least Biden has an arguable reason for much of it. Trump had no
reason, none at all,
for most of it, starting in year one. Trump didn't come into a Covid
disaster, a Covid
economy. Trump came into a Goldylocks economy. Steady economic growth
since 2009,
low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates.

There is no "reason" for a $2 Trillion give away package.

According to you. Funny, we didn't see you here saying there was no
reason for
Trump's tax cut and increased spending.
You weren't listening.

Sure, it's my listening, even after you pretty much confirmed it here
again yesterday,
by saying that you only pointed out that Trump's tax cut benefitted Joe
Six pack too.




That lousy $1400 will be gone in a few weeks and nothing will have
changed. That was just a fraction of the spending anyway. Most had
nothing to do with the Covid thing..

I haven't seen a detailed analysis of what all is in it. I know there
has been
complaining because some of the money is going to projects like a bridge
in NY. But infrastructure spending is stimulative to the economy. A lot
of it is aid to cities, like NYC, that has been hit hard by Covid. The
economy
has taken a big hit, so have cities. That's why I said at least Biden's
deficit
increase is arguably justified. Trump did his deficit blowout with a
Goldylocks
economy, steadily growing since 2009, low unemployment, low inflation,
low interest rates. There was no justification, just a pack of lies
about a
terrible economy while he was running and then suddenly the same growth,
the same continuation under Trump was a great achievement. Is the new
Covid package too big? Not all going to where it should? Probably. You
can put the blame for that on yourself and the other Trumpets, who
defended
every horrible, stupid thing he did while he gutted the GOP. Now the WH,
House and Senate are lost and this is the result. I predicted it 5 years
ago.


I understand you and Rod think we can just keep borrowing and printing
money forever but history is a cruel teacher and it teaches us that
leads to a financial disaster.

That's a lie. I spoke out against Trump's tax cuts and increased
spending,
I said it would greatly increase the deficits, that were already at $500
bil.
But at least they were steadily declining, until Trump came along.

Your ONLY complaint about the tax cut was rich people got a taste.

That;s yet another lie. I spoke out against the tax cut as being
irresponsible
when we already had a $500 bil deficit and the economy was doing OK.
YOU responded again and again, justifying it, saying it was going to many
Americans, not just the rich, never saying it was a bad idea. And the
rich
not only got a taste, they got an order of magnitude more benefit than
Joe Sixpack.




In a way this is very much like 2007. Everyone said the housing market
could never fail and real estate was always a safe investment, until
the first house lost money. Then it was an avalanche.
We think people will always be lined up to buy our debt but as soon as
that is not true, it will be the same type of avalanche.

I've said the same thing many times. I said it when Trump was cutting
taxes
and increasing spending. You didn't.

Yes I did. I have said we should cut the DoD budget for years but you
still think we have that red menace and no amount is too much.

Show us a single post where I advocated for spending more on defense.
Or where I said anything at all about the defense budget.


That is the elephant in the room. It is second only to the
entitlements and more than interest on the debt.
You could really say it started in 2009 anyway when the Fed had to buy
$4.5T of our debt with money they printed out of thin air because the
market couldn't absorb it.

That's not true either. There was no US debt that had to be bought from
the US treasury. The FED bought the debt in the open markets, from
people
already holding it, exactly as it has always done when it needs to
provide liquidity,
to stimulate the economy, to lower interest rates. The US didn't
suddenly
issue $4.5T of new debt.

Bull****, Nobody was holding that $4.5T they bought. It went straight
from the treasury to the fed. (or vice versa depending on how you look
at the phony bookkeeping).

That's wrong too. You clearly don't understand how the FED works. The
US govt did not issue $4.5T in new debt. If they did, where did that cash
go?
The deficit circa 2009 was $1.4T. That is all the new debt the govt had
to issue.
The rest, the bulk of the money creation was the FED buying securities in
the open
market, as they have done since day one to control the money supply. It's
the
FED's Open Market Operations. And they didn't just buy US govt securites
in 2009,
they bought mortgage backed securities too. Further, the FED NEVER buys
securities directly from the Treasury.



If Bernie Maydolf could have just printed the money to cover his debts
he would still be in Palm Beach sipping Pina Coladas.




I haven't seen how they paid for this latest give away since it hasn't
showed up on the deficit yet. (according to the treasury web site)

They will pay for it the same way that all US spending in excess of
revenue
is paid for, by issuing new debt.

At a certain point who is buying it? We are reaching the point that
there is not that much liquidity in the world economy.

Oh please. The world economy is as liquid as it's ever been.



That is why the
fed needs to print more money. At what point will people start to
realize the money supply far outweighs the value of goods and
services, then the central bank's thumb on the inflation scale will
not be enough to hold it down.

People will realize there is a problem, when there actually is a problem,
eg inflation rising. So far, deflation has been the larger problem.


We don't even have to go back a half century to see that happen.

It's an interesting question that I've never seen an explanation to.
Which is why inflation was so bad, starting in the late 60s, worsening
in the late 70s, but not today. If we buy your govt borrowing be the
driving problem, the govt budget and balance sheet back then was
way better than it's been for the last 20 years, but we've had little
inflation. And monetary policy has never been easier than it has
been since 2009, still no inflation. The internet is one powerful force
keeping prices down, but I've never heard a real attempt at explaining
it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation#Causes

Bernie Madoff went to prison for that kind of bookkeeping.

That's wrong too. What the US is doing is on the books, available for
all to see.
Banks, institutions, world banks, all see it, they know exactly what the
US govt
is doing. Bernie was a lying crook who issued totally made up financial
statements.

All can see but if you really look, what you see looks a lot like what
Bernie did. We have trillions that we say is a trust fund but it is
really just debt. The fed prints money to cover debt the treasury
can't sell on the market.

Again, that is simply wrong. The FED never buys securities directly from
the
Treasury and they are not buying them because no one else wants them.
The FED buys securities in the markets to increase or decrease the
available
money supply.



Most people just believe that because the
government says this is OK, that it is. You are one of them.

That's a lie. I've spoken out against deficits and the national debt,
constantly, including when Trump irresponsibly cut taxes and increased
spending.


Google up Weimar Republic and see what happens when debts overwhelm a
country's ability to pay.
At a certain point we are going to have to start paying an interest
rate that more correctly reflects the market and that will blow out
the deficit.
If we have to pay Carter era interest it is almost all of our current
revenue without spending another dime on SS/MC, federal pensions or
any of the "discretionary" spending.
Carter isn't ancient history either. It was 45 years ago.

On that point, you're correct, that interest rates will rise at some
point.
Hopefully Treasury has the vast majority of debt in 20+ maturities, in
which
case the immediate impact won't be severe.
They don't
There are about $5T in bills that expire in weeks or months
There is $11T in Notes that may only last 2 years, 10 max
$2.9T is in T bonds.
Most of the T bonds are held by SS/MC.
$6.4T is in "Series" bonds. (the kind regular folks buy)
The rest is a mix of other paper.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/...cipal_debt.htm

You're right about that. I guess the morons are doing the ARM mortgage
deal.
Take on huge risk of interest rates rising in order to keep today's
payments
low. So if rates rise, there will be an immediate impact, I see about
25%
is in Tbills, 50% in 2 to 10 year maturities.