In alt.home.repair, on Sun, 14 Mar 2021 21:06:22 -0400,
wrote:

On Sun, 14 Mar 2021 13:33:40 -0400, micky
wrote:

In alt.home.repair, on Sun, 14 Mar 2021 13:11:41 -0400,
wrote:

On Sun, 14 Mar 2021 07:11:22 -0700 (PDT), trader_4
wrote:


Florida is another good example, Spring Break (again) in the midst of Covid
denial.

Most of the spring break destinations did not see a surge last year.
We kept waiting and it didn't happen. The only places with trouble
were the same New Jersey/New York dominated destinations that had the
problem before the spring break. (Miami/Dade, Broward and Palm Beach).
If the virus was as prevalent as you say, the Gulf Coast beaches,
prime spring break locations for anyone not coming down I-95, would
have been slammed.

Maybe, maybe not. There was much less virus around then.

The fact is the midwest didn't get hit until the
virus got loose in the packing houses and other agricultural

Exactly. That was my point in the previous sentence.

operations, mostly staffed by 3d world people. They don't typically
show up for spring break.

We shall see if your implied conclusion comes true.

I seem to be the only one who is willing to wait and see how it will
go. The total deniers say nothing will happen and the hard core Branch
Covidians say another 100,000 will die.

Well it's up to 534 thousand now. It was 500K just a little while ago.

Another 56K or 100K doesn't seem unlikely to me and I'm neither Branch
Dividian or hardcore.

My guess is spring will bring
a little bump in the numbers but nothing like last year.
I still think there is a lot more immunity out there than some
believe.

There are bound to be those who caught it but didn't show symptoms and
haven't been tested because they've seen no point to that. I have no
way of knowing how many that is. It could be a lot, or a little.

If I spent a lot of time studying where cases were high and what the
spread was in those places versus those where it was low, and I knew
more math, and maybe had some epidemiological mathematical packages on
my computer, I could do a lot better, but I don't' have or do any of
that.

There are an unknown number who, if I heard the story right, are
naturally, or almost, immune. They had a guy on the radio who had so
many antibodies if they diluted it by 1000, it was still more than
enough, and I think they said he hadn't been exposed (but maybe not to
that part.)

Yes, the disease will hit first and be noticeable in those vulnerable to
it, and eventually it may be clear that there was a lot more immunity
than expected, but otoh, that might just be hope.

We shall see.