On 25/12/2020 09:01, PeterC wrote:
On Thu, 24 Dec 2020 19:49:25 +0000, Andrew wrote:

On 24/12/2020 19:35, Harry Bloomfield wrote:
Fred submitted this idea :
That's never going to happen.

I have little sympathy with those who refuse to have it, then suffer
the consequences.

But some cant be vaccinated for medical reasons.

All it needs, is enough vaccinated.

So why are they starting with the ones who should be last
in thr queue ?. Its the 11 to 40 yo's who are spreading it
so vaccinate them before anyone else.

Vaccinating 80+ in care and nursing homes is a waste as they're going to die
quite soon. Should be all those in any form of clinical role and the
emergency services, all pupils and teachers at all levels and families with
children, jobs etc.
The sick/subnormal/wrinklies (retired) last (I'm in the last category
there).
The family next door, for instance, has far more value the society and the
country than all the denizens of all the various homes and hospices put
together, with two young, bright children and jobs that are important.
Oh, politicians should be last, just to give us some hope of a good outcome.


It would help if you shared your cost-benefit /calculation/.

The usual methodology for assessing such things (the quality of life
adjusted years saved by vaccination of a person, P) would, I suggest,
take into account not just P's life expectancy but 2 things you have not
mentioned:

(a) the probability of P becoming infected; and

(b) the probability of P dying or suffering decreased quality of life as
a result.

Adding those factors seems to me /qualitatively/ to back the decision to
start with the over 80s (even those in care homes where the average life
expectancy is c. 2 years) as both (a) and (b) have been rather high.
And quantitatively we know eg that deaths in E&W with Covid-19 on death
certificate in 4 weeks to 11/12

age 19 and under 4
age 80+ 6,860

Plus you'd need 4 times as many doses to do the youngsters than the 80+
population.

--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid