Vir Campestris wrote:
On 10/04/2020 00:11, Fredxx wrote:
They will only know that when they have tested sufficient of the
population for numbers of those infected. We have no idea what
proportion of the population are infected or the rate of new infections.

The real question is when will we know the NHS can cope?

Lets be optimistic, lets assume 2% of the population will need admission
to a hospital before herd immunity kicks in sufficiently. That's 1
million patients. Each one that survives, probably 1/2, will need a bed
for 1 or 2 weeks. That's a lot of beds, or a very long time to reach
herd immunity.

My numbers may be off, but that should paint a picture of how this might
pan out.

I went and looked at the South Korea figures earlier.

They've been carrying out extremely widespread contact tracing and
testing, and seem to have the epidemic under control. Unlike some
countries I have some faith in their numbers.

Let me merely say that if you are of a nervous disposition don't look
them up. My wife, for example, wouldn't benefit from knowing their figures.


As weve seen, far too many people simply cant understand the numbers-
nothing to do with having a nervous disposition- they simply cant analyse
them and do basic research.

Of course, the media havent helped- their stupidity has sent people like
Pamela into some strange out of touch with reality orbit from which she
transmits but only receives what she wants, or perhaps that is the fumes
from hairdressing chemicals she mentioned earlier.

The numbers from Sweden are interesting, especially as they adopted a
different approach.

As were the comments today by one of gov medics re the difference between
different countrys approaches. Im not remotely suggesting he is wrong,
quite the converse his observations were most revealing.