On 10/04/2020 00:11, Fredxx wrote:
They will only know that when they have tested sufficient of the
population for numbers of those infected. We have no idea what
proportion of the population are infected or the rate of new infections.

The real question is when will we know the NHS can cope?

Lets be optimistic, lets assume 2% of the population will need admission
to a hospital before herd immunity kicks in sufficiently. That's 1
million patients. Each one that survives, probably 1/2, will need a bed
for 1 or 2 weeks. That's a lot of beds, or a very long time to reach
herd immunity.

My numbers may be off, but that should paint a picture of how this might
pan out.

I went and looked at the South Korea figures earlier.

They've been carrying out extremely widespread contact tracing and
testing, and seem to have the epidemic under control. Unlike some
countries I have some faith in their numbers.

Let me merely say that if you are of a nervous disposition don't look
them up. My wife, for example, wouldn't benefit from knowing their figures.

We've been in lockdown now for three weeks, comfortably over the
incubation period; if lockdown is working we should be seeing a massive
drop in hospital admissions.

We aren't.

We may be wrecking the economy, and not helping the country's health.

Andy