QUORA: Was WWI avoidable?

by David Lipman, former 1st Cavalry Division (1983-1987)
Answered Oct 22, 2018
The fact that the Great War was avoidable is one of that wars
many tragedies. When dealing with jealous, competetive, and
powerful nation states, a deft diplomacy is mandatory. But wise
diplomacy was gone from Germany, the young and foolish Kaiser
dismissed the masterful Bismark. It took a diplomat of Bismarks
skill to balance the jealous rivals Germanies nationhood had
created. With his ouster, the diplomacy of Germany became erratic.

The French were burning for the return of Alsace and Lorraine.
Provinces taken in the final of three wars Bismark had instigated
to form the German nation in 1870. France knew she would need
powerful allies to defeat the new German colossus. Bismark had
kept Russia tied to Germany. The Kaiser threw this €œThree Emperors
League€� away. France quickly filled the void. The Kaisers stupidity
had lost Russia to France.

Britain was finished with €œSplendid Isolation€�. She sought naval
agreements with the rising naval power of Germany. The Germans
wanted a firm alliance, far more than Britain could countenance.
The end result was no agreement at all. The Kaisers ship building
mania alienated the British. The German fleet could have but one
adversary. Each new German dreadnought drove the British from
friendly neutral into implacable foe. Bismark wanted no colonies
and a small fleet. Kaiser Wilhelm II demanded an Empire and an
all powerful fleet. In the end he got neither. His idiocy drove
the British into an alliance with France. A happening that would
have been unthinkable only a few years earlier. France had her
powerful allies. She was ready.

This left Germany tied to the moribund Hapsburg domains. Nationalism
was the death of Austria Hungary. She was a Medievel holdover, the
peoples under her control increasingly restive. The Archdukes
assassination gave her the pretext she wanted. Crushing Serbia
would surely bind the ramshackle realm together. In reality, the
Hapsburgs were on borrowed time. They were too weak to do anything
without German support. Serbia was frantic to avoid war. All the
Kaiser and Germany had to do was to leash their Austrian dog. But
they supported A-H totally. Given the go ahead, the Hapsburgs
attacked Serbia and the lights went out in Europe.

Mobilisation meant war. Germany and the Kaiser could have stopped
it with a word. Deny the Hapsburgs German support, and she was
powerless. But A-H was given a €œblank check€�. The Dual Monarchy
would not have attacked Serbia alone. Russia was the Serbs protector.
The Austrians wisely had no stomach for a death match, unaided,
against Serbia's powerful protector. The Kaiser and Germany's
support insured that the war would be fought.

If only Germany had wise statesmen, if only the Kaiser was not
quite the ass that he proved to be. If only, if only. The two
saddest words in the English language.