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Rod Speed

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 04:57:16 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

"trader_4" wrote in message
...
On Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 1:54:31 AM UTC-5,
wrote:
On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 15:39:02 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

wrote in message
.. .
On Fri, 15 Nov 2019 20:42:55 GMT, (Scott
Lurndal)
wrote:

writes:
On Fri, 15 Nov 2019 16:16:28 GMT, (Scott
Lurndal)
wrote:

writes:
On Thu, 14 Nov 2019 23:00:14 GMT, (Scott
Lurndal)
wrote:

writes:
On Thu, 14 Nov 2019 04:57:16 -0800 (PST), trader_4
wrote:

You do have to take into account the market had just crashed
and
a
good percentage of that gain was just getting back to normal.
Keeping
a rally going is as hard as watching the recovery from a crash.

I guarantee you there will be a big crash if they do succeed in
removing Trump

Yeah, right. Removing trump will fire up the market assuming
his
successor manages to convince the rest of the world that trump
was an abberation instead of a new normal (but we're
still screwed in the long run due to the trump tax cuts and
insane annual budget deficits).

If you get democrats with the Sanders Warren tilt to their
politics
they will target corporations with excessive regulations and
taxes,
remove tax incentives to invest and generally scare investors
enough
to make 1929 or 2009 look like a minor correction in the market.

Nonsense. Corporations existed for seven decades with more
stringent restrictions and taxes than today and we did just fine.

We were not in a global economy then. There was no real competition
and moving your operation offshore was much harder, if not
impossible.

and it might not be one we recover from in my lifetime.
The middle class still hasn't recovered from the malaise after
they
removed Nixon. .

You're confused again. The economic malaise had nothing to do
with
Nixon and everything to do with the embargo.

There are plenty of economists who say the middle class never
recovered.

Never recovered from _what_ exactly? From the embargo and
associated
economic malaise? Certainly not from the
impeachment/resignation,
which nobody gave a **** about after 6 months.

It started the political divide that still exists today and that
was
also when we decided deficits no longer mattered. The only thing
that
is holding down double digit inflation is the Fed's thumb on the
scale
and that can't last much longer. The only thing that is holding up
the
economy these days is the blind faith and credit of the US.
I am not going to say Trump did any better but it is a 45 year old
problem, not helped by a forced resignation and what will now be
two
impeachments. That does not bode well for the republic.
The day the world markets decide we are really just another banana
republic selling worthless paper, interest rates will spike and we
won't be able to cover them with our revenue.
We take in about $2.4 trillion if you exclude FICA that is spent
before we even get it and at a Carter era interest rate (11-12%)
that
would barely cover the interest on the $22T debt.
That leaves nothing for anything else the government needs to spend
money on. Taxing the Forbes 400 at 90% won't even make a dent in
that
deficit. All it will do is make them move their money offshore
making
our problems worse.

Your saying it, doesn't make it true. Provide some citations to
actual,
you know, research that supports your supposition.

Which part confuses you? That Carter had a 11-12% interest rate on
federal paper. That is fact
That the debt is $22T? Fact
That 12% of $22T is $2.64T? Fact
That the total revenue minus the FICA is $2.4T? Fact
That the fact that the FICA is not even covYouering the outlay for
the
people we promised it to? Fact

You can't just say "NO" without being ready to tell me what part is
wrong. Tell me which one is not true.

Interest rates on govt debt arent going back to 11-12%

And you know this how?

Actually Tbonds peaked at ~16%. You're right, if you asked anyone
just a few years prior if that could happen, they would have said
no, never. It's certainly possible for rates to return to double
digits. One simple method would be for investor psychology to
change, where they come out of dreamland and realize the US is
piling up debt at an alarming rate, that we may not be able to pay
it back. And like we've agreed in the past, even if rates just
got back to their historic range, the increase in interest payments
on new debt, on debt rolled over increases dramatically and that
makes the deficits worse. If you looked at countries from Germany
to South America, to Greece, none of them would have thought they
would wind up busted either, but they did.

But the USA never did, and there is a reason for that.

You think that just because we used to be fiscally stable that we are now?

Nope, I realise that the USA has never been stupid
enough to do what Germany did between the wars,
or Greece has done recently, or Venezuela either
and that the WW2 govt debt was much higher
and that worked out fine.

Great, buy some bonds.

No thanks, I get a better return on the stock market.

Tell your friends, tell your neighbors.

Few of those have anything like my accumulated wealth.

We need to keep that myth going.

It isnt a myth, it's a fact that that's a safe place for your money,
although the returns arent anything special currently

(at least another 10-20 years until I am returned to the soil).

Makes more sense to be burned. At the stake in your case.