"Home Guy" wrote in message ...
More Americans Live Alone Than Ever Before

Wed, 08/21/2019 - 19:45

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

More Americans live alone than ever before, some 28% of the population.
They actually outnumbers households with 4+ people and demographic
trends point to even more single-person households over the next decade.
This is one of those long-term secular trends that should be part of
every investor's checklist when considering the merits of a company's
product/service offering.

First, a brief overview of the data (graph below):

* As of 2018, 28.0% of Americans lived alone. The raw numbers: 35.7
million single-person households and 127.6 million total households.

* That percentage has been rising steadily for +50 years.

* In 1960, for example, only 13.1% of Americans lived alone. If you
walked into a random American house back then, you were 3x more likely
to see 4 or more residents. Now, the odds favor meeting only one
inhabitant.

* The crossover point between single-person households and 4-or-more was
1998.

* The trend to more Americans living alone rather than in a
"traditional" 2-adults, 2-or-more kids household is the central reason
the number of people/household has declined from 3.3 in 1960 to 2.5
today.

Why is this happening?

* Greater female labor force participation, which allows women the
choice of living alone, is one factor. LFP for this cohort went from 38%
in 1960 to 60% in 2000 and is at 57% today.

* Lower birthrates is another, with the US going from 3.7/woman in 1960
to 1.8 today.

* An aging population is the last variable, since men typically die 5
years earlier than women. Data from other aging populations such as
Europe (33% 1-person households) and Japan (35%) show where the US
statistics will likely go in coming years.

The other obvious reason is higher living standards so that
more can afford a place of their own and don't need to share
with someone else that they arent married to or arent ****ing.

And the much higher divorce rate is also another reason
why more choose to live alone than there used to be.

Why does this matter from an investment perspective?

* The US consumer is the backbone of the domestic economy, and the
growing percentage of 1-person households is theoretically a secular
positive. Single person households do not typically share durable goods
like motor vehicles, major appliances, rent/mortgage or even smaller
items like media subscriptions. They therefore will tend to consume more
than a multiple-person household.

* The offsetting problem: since America's growing single-person
household percentage is partly due to an aging population, consumption
will be lower than if this was all due to millennials living alone.

Bottom line: the growth of single-person US households is one of those
big macro trends that should filter its way into considering what sorts
of companies will prosper in the next decade. Just ask yourself "would a
person living alone buy X, subscribe to Y, or use Z's services?" If the
answer is a resounding "yes", that's a good start.

Sources:

CME FedWatch (odds of rate cuts):
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...n-to-fomc.html

US Census (Households by size):
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...ouseholds.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ive-alone-ever