On 5/22/2019 10:30 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Wed, 22 May 2019 21:55:15 -0500, dpb wrote:
....

They're getting it again tomorrow just east of us -- 2-4" more on places
with a foot or more in last two weeks with some localized areas
predicting another 3-6". We're on the western edge of the severe
weather watch zone for this round so we'll just have to "hide and
watch"...supposed to be moving cows/calves to summer pasture in the
morning; may be interesting exercise.
I was talking to a trucker who just came up from Texas a week or two
ago - said he was running through 2 feet of water on the interstate
(on the one lane that was open) and the feilds were all under a few
feet of water. Can't remember where it was in Texas - but there was no
(functional) drainage system. He said it looked like it would be
August before it would dry out enough to plant - if it DIDN'T rain
again this week - - - -

Yeah, they got hammered along the Gulf Coast (Houston area then...before
our rounds got started--we had one of the driest April's on record
including the 1930's Dust Bowl era...before May got here...

This AM's discussion page excerpts--

..SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Still mainly clear across SW KS as of midnight, but that will not
be lasting much longer. Widespread stratus will develop by sunrise
Thursday, along with areas of drizzle/fog, in response to
warm/moist advection north of a stationary surface boundary to our
south. Indications are the stratus will hold for most locations
most of the day, with any penetration of the warm sector airmass
restricted to areas well southeast of Dodge City. The location of
the frontal boundary will be critical with respect to convective
mode/severity through today. A strong closed low near the Grand
Canyon at sunrise this morning will lift north into Wyoming this
evening, and a strong embedded shortwave will eject just to the
west of SW KS through this evening as this occurs. Dynamic lift
will increase strongly today, and in response numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop during the daylight hours. Kept pop
grids very high, in the likely/definite category. 00z NAM keeps
any surface-based instability restricted to the far SE zones this
afternoon, with high SBCAPE near Kiowa in Barber county and points
south. With strong shear amid continued SW flow aloft, this is
where severe thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon. More
widespread severe weather is expected across NW Oklahoma into SE
KS. Through the afternoon hours, 00z NAM does allow elevated
MUCAPE to near 2000 J/kg about as far north as the Dodge City
vicinity. As such, stronger thunderstorms will produce marginally
severe hail. Clouds and rainfall will work to hold temperatures
well below normal north of the frontal boundary today, and for the
northern/central zones, followed the cooler 00z NAM/MET guidance.

Will allow the flash flood watch to continue for the SE zones
through tonight. Models continue to line up the heaviest rainfall
across these areas. The latest HRRR iterations are the most
concerning, showing multiple rounds of convection and heavy rain
for Barber county and vicinity, this afternoon through Friday
morning. 00z NAM increases precipitable water to near 2 inches
across the SE counties this evening, and QPF grids show widespread
2 inch rainfall amounts. These amounts will likely prove
conservative where training occurs. Soils are already saturated,
and will need to watch the flooding threat closely for the SE
zones carefully through tonight.

....

..LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Traditional Memorial Day weekend weather is expected Saturday and
Sunday, in that we are expecting afternoon/evening thunderstorm
potential both days. SW flow aloft is maintained both days,
between persistent troughing over the Great Basin and the
sprawling subtropical high over the SE U.S. As such, the lee
trough/dryline will remain established, gulf moisture will remain
available, and wind shear will remain strong. Per SPC Day 3
outlook for Saturday, scattered supercells are expected in the
warm sector. Pop grids are highest Saturday evening, when large
hail/damaging winds are possible.

Severe thunderstorms appear likely again Sunday afternoon and
evening, with the synoptic pattern changing little and instability
easily reestablishing by afternoon. With enhanced synoptic
support, 00z ECMWF would suggest more robust convective
development Sunday, with a distinct tornado threat across SW KS.
Memorial Day weekend is the statistical peak of the SW KS tornado
season, and this will have to be watched carefully.

Both Saturday and Sunday, heavy rain potential will continue to
exacerbate the contined flash flood threat in south central
Kansas.

--