On 18-Jan-18 8:05 PM, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 18/01/18 18:19, Nightjar wrote:
On 18-Jan-18 4:22 PM, harry wrote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...t-El-Nino.html

I 'spect there's still some nitwits here who still don't believe it.


I will believe that the scientists know what is causing climate change
when they can make accurate predictions based upon their claims.


Unfortunately one of the problems of science is that certain classes of
equations, called chaotic, won't give meaningful predictions *even if
they are 100% accurate in representing the reality*.

For example, a pencil balanced on end is perfectly described by the law
of gravity: however that won't tell you which way that it will fall.
Brownian motion at the molecular level will determine that.

That's before we start on Schrödingers much maligned moggy...

Climate is chaotic, and that means within a very broad range of
possibilities, its totally unpredictable.

The IPCC seems to think that they can predict what will happen to the
climate. I have yet to be convinced they can.

--
--

Colin Bignell