On 19/01/2018 07:42, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 18/01/18 21:50, RJH wrote:
On 18/01/2018 20:05, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 18/01/18 18:19, Nightjar wrote:
On 18-Jan-18 4:22 PM, harry wrote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...t-El-Nino.html

I 'spect there's still some nitwits here who still don't believe it.


I will believe that the scientists know what is causing climate
change when they can make accurate predictions based upon their claims.


Unfortunately one of the problems of science is that certain classes
of equations, called chaotic, won't give meaningful predictions *even
if they are 100% accurate in representing the reality*.

For example, a pencil balanced on end is perfectly described by the
law of gravity: however that won't tell you which way that it will
fall. Brownian motion at the molecular level will determine that.

That's before we start on Schrödingers much maligned moggy...

Climate is chaotic, and that means within a very broad range of
possibilities, its totally unpredictable.


Weather is chaotic. Climate can be modelled and, within a decent
margin of error, predicted.


Not really, no it cant.

Really. In Birmingham, hot in summer, cold in winter? There you are :-)


Climate is in any case the time average of weather, so if weather cant
be predicted, neither can climate


No. It's one of those things - more data, better modelling. Time gives
you access to more data. Not, of course, necessarily better models.


--
Cheers, Rob