"pamela" wrote in message
...
On 20:43 3 Oct 2017, James Harris wrote:

On 03/10/2017 10:15, pamela wrote:
On 06:40 3 Oct 2017, James Harris wrote:

On 03/10/2017 00:09, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
James Harris wrote:
No - it's rather like saying to a 3 year old 'if you put
your hand in the fire you'll get burnt' But the child does
it anyway.

Not at all. The EU's decision that a seceding state must be
worse off is not required by any treaty. It is not part of
the EU's rules. It is not a component of the single market.
It is not required by the customs union.

People need to understand this. The EU leaders have made a
CHOICE that the UK must be worse off.

You don't think the UK being worse off might just be down to
leaving the EU?

No, because leaving the EU means leaving its political
structures. /Trade/ with the EU only has to be made harder
because the EU says so.

We can't insist the EU trades with us under terms which we
identify as the ones we would like.

Correct. (If someone said otherwise I missed it.)


It's very simple. Just leave. Any future trade with the EU
done under WTO rules.

Luckily, those in power know this would be economic suicide.

Not at all. WTO is not as good as a trade deal but it's OK.
Don't believe me? Look at this graph which the CBI
commissioned from PricewaterhouseCoopers.

http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-
brexit-forecasts-2016-03.png

Note what they predicted to happen under the WTO option.

Nice graph but it was published in March 2016 before the
referendum when a number fo speculative assumptions were made.
Is there a more up to date one available?

I don't have one. Feel free to look for yourself, if it
interests you. But from your replies I think you've missed the
reason I posted the graph. It was _not_ to give any credible
prediction for 2030. The forecasters can't predict six months
ahead, let alone 14 years!

The reason I posted it was to show that the difference between
EU and WTO forecasts was just different amounts of growth.
Remember that you said "those in power know [WTO] would be
economic suicide". The PwC report was one that those "in the
know" used before the referendum. So my question to you, if it's
not obvious, is why those in the know would "know" that WTO
would be economic suicide in light of the evidence they had at
the time?

Too many Remainers "know" things without data to back them up.

"Those in the know" do not make up a single group of opinion.
Several groups may be in the know (we are referring to expertise
rather than to knowing inner secrets) and they may differ from one
another.

You can not infer those in the know in the present are the same
ones who were disparaged for their expertise (being in the know)
by the Leave campaign in the referendum.

But we can certainly consider whether they have been able to
actually provide any evidence to support their claim for the
amount Britain would be worse of trading under WTO rules
instead of remaining in the EU. They havent been able to do that.