On Saturday, 12 August 2017 22:07:34 UTC+1, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
On Tue, 08 Aug 2017 10:46:31 +0100, whisky-dave wrote:

On Monday, 7 August 2017 19:53:47 UTC+1, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
On Fri, 04 Aug 2017 16:58:59 +0100, whisky-dave wrote:

On Friday, 4 August 2017 15:05:41 UTC+1, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
On Fri, 04 Aug 2017 11:31:24 +0100, whisky-dave wrote:

If a forecaster uses probabilities, he's guessing.

That's what forcasting is just working out probabilities of what is most likely to happen.

And until that probability is near 0% and 100%, there's no point.

Yes there is just like betting.
If there was a 50% chance of you winning the lottery by placing a £1 bet then would you place the bet ?
But remmeber yuor stats dum**** it's 50% isn't it.
You either win or you don't just two outcomes.

No point in betting on something if there's a 50% chance of winning £1 and a 50% chance of losing £1. Which is what you get with weather.
Thats why just a % figure is pretty useless on it's own.

Tell that to the ****ty weather websites.
https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/to...p=c&par=google
"Min 8C, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy, wind 10-15km/h."

Having problmes understanding it are you.

Today it says there;s a 30% chance of a few showers, that;s not the same as 30% change of a tornado. Humidity 81% does that mean thre;sa a 81% chance of humidity ?
So there's 19% chance of no humitidy is that it ?



The famous storm of 1987 in the UK had a probability of 20% that hurricane force winds would hit the south coast.

So they were **** at predicting it.

No there was a 20% chance of it happening that is 1 in 5
\plenty of peole place bets on horses with far less likely to win but they still do it.
There's the national lottery something like 14 million to 1 on winning.

If someone tells you there's a 20% chance of something happening, you will assume it probably won't happen. Yet it did.

I wouldn't assume that with a 20% chance. Only someone that didn't understand what they were reading might do though.

If I said there was a 20% chance of you winning the lottery, would you go out and celebrate?

No but I'd go out and buy a ticket and would thibnk it is more likely that;s I'd win than having the standard chance of 1 in 14 million or so.