On Friday, 4 August 2017 15:05:41 UTC+1, James Wilkinson Sword wrote:
On Fri, 04 Aug 2017 11:31:24 +0100, whisky-dave wrote:

If a forecaster uses probabilities, he's guessing.

That's what forcasting is just working out probabilities of what is most likely to happen.

And until that probability is near 0% and 100%, there's no point.

Yes there is just like betting.
If there was a 50% chance of you winning the lottery by placing a £1 bet then would you place the bet ?
But remmeber yuor stats dum**** it's 50% isn't it.
You either win or you don't just two outcomes.


The famous storm of 1987 in the UK had a probability of 20% that hurricane force winds would hit the south coast.

So they were **** at predicting it.

No there was a 20% chance of it happening that is 1 in 5
\plenty of peole place bets on horses with far less likely to win but they still do it.
There's the national lottery something like 14 million to 1 on winning.