On 11/05/2017 01:31, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/10/2017 10:35 AM, Norman Wells wrote:


All animal populations throughout history have gone the same way.
They expand and expand until they outrun their resources and then they
suffer massive and sudden population decline through death and
disease. Humans are no different. They will go the same way unless
and until there is a pretty immediate global curb on breeding, of
which there is no sign or any likelihood.

Sorry, but life as we know it is doomed, and sooner than you think.


One question I have, is it going to be catastrophic or phased in? There
may be a weather related catastrophe, volcanic, earthquake, or human
started nuclear wipe out of millions, maybe billions of people.

Next, will it happen next week, next year, or in two centuries. I think
it will happen.

Natural resources will eventually be drained too.

When populations begin to exceed supply, you get shortages and price
hikes. At first these will be coincident with poor harvests. In poor
countries, like Ethiopia, that will lead to local malnutrition and
deaths from associated disease. As it gets worse, you will get people
dying of hunger. The world will be inadequately compassionate and
supply some aid but that will not turn back the tide.

As world populations grow further there will be more 'bad harvests'
because even average ones will no longer be enough.

Those countries that produce a surplus will sell their excess to those
in other countries that can afford to buy them. As more and more
countries cannot produce enough to feed their ever-increasing
populations, supplies to other countries in trouble will of course
diminish further. There will be protectionism. Countries that can
produce enough for themselves will keep their food for themselves and
will not share it. And people elsewhere will starve.

We in Britain will be in trouble then because, although we're rich,
money can't buy food from those who are starving themselves. And we can
produce here only enough to feed 50-60% of the current population.

So, keep an eye on the world population, see famines anywhere as just
the start, worry about reports of poor harvests anywhere, and see price
rises in the shops as an early indicator of things to come.

As for time scale, that's the curse of all futurologists. We'll be OK
for a bit, but can we support a world population increase from 7 billion
at the moment to over 10 billion by 2050? That's for you to decide, but
you'd better have a pretty good idea of where an extra 50% of cultivable
land is going to come from if you say yes. And then some after that as
populations expand even further.

Sorry to be so gloomy on a lovely Thursday morning, but it's inevitable.