In article ,
RJH writes:
On 02/05/2017 15:39, Harry Bloomfield wrote:
bm presented the following explanation :
It's not gonna happen, Dave. When Corbyn gets elected he'll put an end
to Brexit.
McDonnell knows it.

When ??? Seems very unlikely to me..

If somehow Labour can hint at an exit Brexit option they may well have a
chance at the election.

Labour can't win either way on brexit/remain from a numbers perspective.
Their traditional voters are split 1/3rd brexit, 2/3rds remain.
However, the brexit 1/3rd were more heavily on the left, where the party
has decided to concentrate its direction, at the cost of losing its more
centre voters. If it were to move to a remain position, it would lose
both its left and centre voters. (It's already thought it's lost a
significant part of its left to Conservatives, purely because they don't
think Labour is brexit enough, and they feel more strongly about brexit
than they do about Labour/socialism.)

This shows the difference in position between the Labour Party members,
and the traditional Labour voters.

Conserveratives have exactly the same issue in mirror image. However,
Conservative remainers are much less likely to vote non-Conservative
than Labour brexiters are likey to vote non-Labour. Conservatives will
almost certainly lose some seats to LibDems, but nowhere near as many
as they stand to gain from Labour (bearing in mind they'll probably
get all 5M UKIP votes too).

If Labour were nearer the centre (e.g. New Labour), then a Labour
remain stance would work from a figures perspective, because it would
match the views of a much larger number of traditional Labour voters,
and they could steal the Conservative remainers, and probably all the
LibDem votes too.

--
Andrew Gabriel
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