On 04/24/2017 9:05 AM, dpb wrote:
....

All will depend on precise location and intensity...1906 was roughly
7.7-7.9 only 2 mi off coast of SF; 1989 was 6.9 (10X less energy) and
roughly 50-60 mi S.
....

Been _a_long_time_ since did any of the earthquake study work for the
DOE facilities wherein had to do some reading-up, but iirc at least then
the thinking was that because the San Andreas fault lies roughly 8-10 mi
in depth, it's top potential is in the neighborhood of 8 on Richter
scale. So, the upper-7's are getting close.

OTOH, Alaska 1964(?) was like 9.0-9.2 and the Chilean in early '60s was
largest recorded at 9.5. Something like that, if it were to actually
occur much of anywhere in the CA fault area would be truly devastating.

That's kinda' what most people envision in "the big one" for CA, but
afaik, while there's inevitably going to be more major quakes, that
magnitude isn't thought to be likely at all, fortunately.

The _real_ US disaster will be when the Yellowstone caldera goes "boom"
again...

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