On Thursday, 16 March 2017 11:21:45 UTC, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
Jethro_uk wrote:
True. Has anyone worked out how much extra generating capacity we'd
need if every vehicle was electric?

All of this assumes the next 50 years are going to be like the last.

I can't help but feel we're in the last days of the car - certainly as a
solution to private transport.

The end of the car will coincide with the end of the world as we know it.

If anyone has actually thought beyond the press releases, it's obvious
that the *big* (I mean beyond Government spending) money - from Google
et al - is going on the idea of autonomous/driverless cars.

Of course. Business always wants to sell you something new.

The second you have a car which drives itself, you can immediately halve
- maybe quarter - the number of cars needed to move people around. After
all 80% of cars are unused for 80% of the 24 hours in a day.

Given how many thing of their car as part of themselves - not to be lent
or shared in any way - I can't see that.

Couple that with an Uber-style supply/demand network, and in 30 years
time the idea of owning and driving a car (which will have become *very*
expensive) will seem just weird.

Taxis ain't new. All the disadvantages of them still apply - no matter how
cheap and reliable the service is. But Uber only exists because of a big
supply of cheap labour. And those better paid who can afford it.

The ICE car was first available for public use in the 1897. By 1930
every village blacksmith had turned to car repairs. I believe we'll see
the same seismic shift with driverless cars.

But still a car. Cars have been getting easier to drive as time went on.
Driverless simply being an extension of that. But people will still want
their own choice of make and model - even if if capable of driving itself

Of course a true autonomous car will just drive to the nearest power
point, and charge until ready. But there will always be a fleet "on the
road" to handle capacity.

There have been plenty of 'pool' car systems tried. With limited success.
Same as pool bikes. Some do use them - but there seem to be even more
owned ones on the roads than ever.

Such a future does bring into question the entire purpose of railways,
of course. Which is why - especially given it's glacial timescale - HS2
seems like an absolute waste of money.

Driverless cars will never match the speed of a train between city centres.

Driverless cars will never catch on.
People like to drive, especially young ones.
Cars are status symbols too.
Who wants to turn up in a glorified dodgem car?
You think the Queen is gonna turn up in a driverless pool car/taxi?
No, she's gonna have a Roller.
With a chauffeur.