On Sun, 16 Oct 2016 16:47:52 +1100, Gordon Levi wrote:

In your original post you posted the "fact" that cell phone use was a
distraction and distractions can cause accidents. You even produced
some research that confirms it.

You just stated my entire point!
Science contains *details*, and therein lies the truth.

As just an example of sophistry with details, let's assume 75% of adult
drivers wear corrective lenses (that's a reasonably reliable figure for the
USA).

Now, what do you think the percentage of accidents might be of people who
wear corrective lenses are?

I don't know the answer, but I'll guess that it's pretty close to the 75%
since corrective lenses shouldn't matter.

Do you notice the sophistry I can attempt with that fact?

I could claim that 75% of all accidents are caused by people who need
corrective lenses!

My point is that you need to UNDERSTAND the facts, which as you can see,
many people, such as Rod Speed has exemplified in spades, do NOT understand
details.

Now let's get to the details of your observation:

Your point is apropos that cellphones must contribute to the likelihood of
accidents, simply because they are yet-another distraction piled upon an
already existing huge set of distractions (all of which existed before
cellphones ever came upon the scene).

While not every post of mine bothers to carve out that agreement, you will
note that many posts of mine in this thread say as much.

So, we both agree that cellphone use must be causing at least a tiny amount
of additional accidents, commensurate with the additional distraction that
using cellphones actually adds.

At the same time, I have already shown that there are far more potent
distractions (e.g., fatigue) which contribute to the accident rate, and even
with those far more potent distractions, the actual total contribution of
distractions to the accident rate was something like (offhand) ten percent
or so (we could doublecheck those figures based on the 2014 NHTSA
statistical survey summary already posted).

So my point is, was, or at least should have always been obvious that there
is an utterly astounding difference between the following true statements:

TRUE STATEMENT 1:
Cellphone use while driving, overall, does not meaningfully (aka measurably)
contribute to the overall accident rate in the USA (or Australia, as the
case appears to be).

TRUE STATEMENT 2:
Cellphone use while driving is an additional distraction, and since
distractions cause accidents, cellphone use will inevitably cause additional
accidents commensurate with the amount of additional distraction that
cellphone use entails.

The problem that I have with communicating these two true statements is that
many people seem to consistently discount the former truth while at the same
time, astoundingly hugely (utterly fantastically) overplaying the latter.

Intensification aside, how do you intelligently deal with such people?