On Wed, 5 Oct 2016 15:44:56 -0600, Allah's Cock Bar wrote:

On 10/5/2016 2:49 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Wed, 5 Oct 2016 14:18:07 -0600, Allah's Cock Bar wrote:

On 10/5/2016 2:04 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Wed, 5 Oct 2016 10:50:54 -0600, Allah's Cock Bar wrote:

On 10/4/2016 10:13 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:
Well-done polls give you a snapshot in time. That's what we're looking
at now. It won't tell you who will win, but it will tell you how the
voting public is reacting to events.


Rasmussen Reports Clinton 41, Trump 42, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Trump +1

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton
43, Trump 47 Trump +4


LA Times tracking is the outlier -- roughly 6 points under the other
professional polls for Clinton. Here's the story on it. They have an
odd weighting factor for people who voted in the 2012 election. The
consensus is that the LAT/USC level is an outlier but the trend lines
are good:

"Election Update: Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...es-poll-alone/

As for Rasmussen, it's a C+ rated poll with a +2 Republican bias.
However, it tends to call elections correctly (79%) *in the last week*
before an election. It's another odd one, being conducted with
robocalls.

Your best bets are either the Real Clear Politics averages:

The polls are inadequate this election due to the fear instilled in
Trump voters by the insanely rabid Dems.

I saw on TV a couple of days ago that some polling organization ran
some tests to see if there was such a factor at work, and they
concluded there wasn't.

Un-sourced lamestream media denials are REJECTED!

I really don't care what you reject.




It's the same fear that has made bumper stickers disappear btw.

They've been in decline for years.

Nope.

Yup.

The Life and Death of the Political Bumper Sticker - The Atlantic
http://www.theatlantic.com/technolog...ticker/472395/

The Slow Death of the Political Bumper Sticker
http://www.theatlantic.com/technolog...ticker/472395/

Bumper Stickers Getting Bumped Out of Public Favor [1998]
http://articles.latimes.com/1998/dec/13/news/mn-53443

The Case of the Missing Bumper Stickers - NYTimes.com [1992]
http://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/25/op...rs-232192.html


T/he use of bumper stickers has been declining for a couple of
decades.


There are still plenty of treasonous 'O' stickers out there.

No.




Do not trust the polls.

It depends on what you're trusting them for. When the values in a poll
are pretty evenly divided, like 44%/46%, polls are no good as
predictors. When the values split widely, like 75%/25%, they're very
useful.

The usefulness of presidential election polls in recent years applies
to their detection of trends, rather than to absolute values. That
LAT/USC poll you brought up, for example, has NO sampling error from
one day's tracking to the next, because they keep asking the same
question of the same 3,000 people. If the numbers change, it tells you
something important about a trend.

That's specious obfuscation.

No, that's survey statistics. You either understand it, or you don't.


We're not trusting them for tire ratings.

That's your business.

--
Ed Huntress