alan_m wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Big Les Wade wrote
lid posted

All the (potential) leaders have stated it will have no significant
effect on immigration so where does this tightening come from?

No they haven't, and even if they had, they aren't in a position to
determine the outcome.

They are on what gets agreed with the EU to get free trade.

Countries outside of the EU that have trade deals don't require to have
free movement of people.

Norway, Switzerland and Iceland do. Whether Norway was
REQUIRED to have that is less clear but certainly Switzerland
which had always been very restrictive on who it allowed to
move there was required to change their policy on that to
get a free trade agreement with the EU.

No-one knows what will happen as negotiations haven't started

That is overstated given that dozens have an agreement
already, including some majors like Korea and Israel.
\https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe...ade_agreements

but its unlikely to be the worst scenario predicted by some on this group.

Yes. OTOH is it hard to ignore what Norway, Switzerland and Iceland
have. But Britain is a lot more economically significant to the EU than
those are too. But there is clearly a real incentive for the EU to
discourage any other country from leaving the EU too.

Trade is a 2 way process and if, say, French farmers believe that they may
disadvantaged by a deal with the UK their form of protest by blocking the
roads to Paris may change politicians minds.

No evidence that that sort of thing has much effect at all on
the EU unelected bureaucrats that determine stuff like that.

People like Merkle and Hollande have a lot more effect on that.

And there is clearly a real incentive for the EU to make it very
hard to get a good agreement when leaving the EU to discourage
other countrys which are considering leaving from doing that too.

If the remainders get their way and a second referendum is held on the
outcome of the negotiations

IMO that isnt going to happen.

think what may happen if all the existing EU rules are still in place and
we have to pay just as much for the privilege.

IMO the absolute vast bulk of leavers would still want to leave,
and you may even see quite a few who didn’t expect the leave
vote to prevail and who voted to remain for that reason may
well choose to vote to leave in a second referendum. And some
who didn’t bother to vote to leave because they had decided
that the remain vote was going to prevail may well vote to
leave in a second referendum.

And certainly some who voted to leave would vote to stay too.

The politicians better have plan B at that time.

There can't be any plans in situations like that and no point
in even attempting one either. All Britain could do in that
situation is decide not to leave if the remain vote prevailed
and hope that the EU wouldn’t actually try kicking Britain
out because they do want Britain to remain in the EU and
would be happy to fudge Article 50 which doesn’t say
explicitly that Article 50 can be withdrawn if the leaving
country changes its mind.

By then they may be thinking more about their political future in the next
general election!

Unlikely given that Labour is completely unelectable to
govt now. Yes, UKIP could well be a problem if the govt
decides not to leave the EU because of the result of the
second referendum, but it isnt even possible to plan for that.

IMO there wont be a second referendum so the question
of what will happen after it is completely academic.

IMO the only real possibility is that someone like May
might actually end up with the same sort of agreement
that Norway and Switzerland and Iceland have, because
she doesn’t actually want Britain to leave and hope that
she can bull**** her way thru with that given that Labour
is completely unelectable to govt and that UKIP has become
completely politically irrelevant with Britain leaving.

Yes, that might see Farage return to UKIP and mount
a campaign to bin that new agreement, but IMO it is
unlikely to change anything even if he did.

IMO I bet May has decided that referendums are much too
risky and wont actually be stupid enough to have another
because it is so difficult to handle the result you don’t want.