RJH wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Dave Plowman (News) wrote
Rod Speed wrote

I sincerely hope so, but I very much doubt it. Economists are rarely
so
much in agreement as they are about the future of the UK after Brexit.

They were on whether Britain should be in the eurozone
or not and were completely wrong about that.

NOT ONE of the predicted the worst
recession since the Great Depression either.

With a track record like that, only a fool would take any notice of
them at all

No point in ever using an expert then Wodney.
Because they are not always right.

Even sillier than you usually manage. In this situation the only
thing that makes any sense at all is to consider their claims
and when you do that, they don’t hold water. Even if the pound
does sag say 10% permanently with Britain out of the EU, all that
does is allow British exports that end up in the EU to be buyable
by EU consumers FOR THE SAME PRICE AS THEY WERE BEFORE
BRITAIN LEFT THE EU, if say there is an 8% duty on what comes
into the EU from outside the EU. So even you should have noticed
that that wouldn’t see the British economy with any problem at all.

That is assuming current trade agreements hold.

It assumes nothing of the sort, JUST that what currently applys to
imports into the EU from outside the EU would apply to Britain
with Britain outside the EU. Of course it would if Britain just makes
an obscene gesture in the general direction of the EU it the EU is
actually stupid enough to proclaim that the 4 basic principles that
the EU is based on are non negotiable to get a trade agreement
with the EU when outside the EU.

Being part of the EU confers a lot of practical - and intangible - pros
and cons.

Yes,.

Buggered if I can make sense of them all, but the consensus seemed to be
that the UK would lose out post-exit.

There is no such consensus.

Osborne is more optimistic - make of that what you will.

That there is no consensus on that question.

Yes, imports would cost more, but it is unlikely that most of the
consumer goods that Britain currently imports would damage the economy
much if they cost 10% more, particularly as they would no longer have
the say 8% duty payable on stuff that comes into the EU from outside the
EU.

Yes, remains to be seen. It will have symbolic and policy knock-ons,
though, as the UK growth figures will be hit.

You don’t know that either, particularly if the eurozone
does continue to be in very deep **** indeed and
Britain doesn’t need to get involved in bailing it out.

So on past form of Tory governments, more cuts to pensions and local
services.

Those are the result of having to bail out the
banks and to pay for all that money printing
that was the result of much of the world financial
system imploding so spectacularly in 2008 etc.

No reason why anything like that should
happen when Britain eventually leaves the EU.

Yes, some manufacturing operations that chose to
setup in Britain because it mostly speaks english
and is in the EU will certainly move to somewhere
else in the EU and certainly some banking and
financial services operations may well do that
too, but they pay **** all in the way of taxes
anyway due to their completely fraudulent tax
arrangements so that wont have any real effect
on govt revenue. And given that Britain has one
of the lowest unemployment rates of the majors
in europe, its unlikely to have much effect at all
on the unemployment rate or the cost of benefits
either.

I think the NHS will be further privatised

Possibly, but if it does, that has nothing to do
with Britain leaving the EU, its just a difference
in the political approach that the Torys take.
They have always been much more into
privatising things than Labour.

- they have the political legitimacy to press for this now,

And Labour will be completely politically irrelevant for
a long time too and so its much easier to do that now
when the voters don’t have anyone else to vote for.

and Theresa May is just the person to see it through.

Yes, but it remains to be seen who ends up as PM.

Yes, EU cars would cost more, but again, that isnt going to cripple the
British economy, at most it might see those who choose to keep buying
cars from the EU keep them for a bit longer and that will only affect
the EU car manufacturers.

So those 'experts' have no basis for their claim that
leaving the EU would cripple the British economy.

It won't 'cripple' - I don't remember that mentioned in anything
approaching measured analysis.

Bignell stupidly claims that the British economy will be DESTROYED.