On 29/06/2016 21:15, Rod Speed wrote:
Dave Plowman (News) wrote
Rod Speed wrote

I sincerely hope so, but I very much doubt it. Economists are rarely so
much in agreement as they are about the future of the UK after Brexit.

They were on whether Britain should be in the eurozone
or not and were completely wrong about that.

NOT ONE of the predicted the worst
recession since the Great Depression either.

With a track record like that, only a fool would take any notice of
them at all

No point in ever using an expert then Wodney.
Because they are not always right.

Even sillier than you usually manage. In this situation the only
thing that makes any sense at all is to consider their claims
and when you do that, they don’t hold water. Even if the pound
does sag say 10% permanently with Britain out of the EU, all that
does is allow British exports that end up in the EU to be buyable
by EU consumers FOR THE SAME PRICE AS THEY WERE BEFORE
BRITAIN LEFT THE EU, if say there is an 8% duty on what comes
into the EU from outside the EU. So even you should have noticed
that that wouldn’t see the British economy with any problem at all.


That is assuming current trade agreements hold. Being part of the EU
confers a lot of practical - and intangible - pros and cons. Buggered if
I can make sense of them all, but the consensus seemed to be that the UK
would lose out post-exit. Osborne is more optimistic - make of that what
you will.

Yes, imports would cost more, but it is unlikely that most of the
consumer goods that Britain currently imports would damage
the economy much if they cost 10% more, particularly as they
would no longer have the say 8% duty payable on stuff that
comes into the EU from outside the EU.


Yes, remains to be seen. It will have symbolic and policy knock-ons,
though, as the UK growth figures will be hit. So on past form of Tory
governments, more cuts to pensions and local services.

I think the NHS will be further privatised - they have the political
legitimacy to press for this now, and Theresa May is just the person to
see it through.

Yes, EU cars would cost more, but again, that isnt going
to cripple the British economy, at most it might see those
who choose to keep buying cars from the EU keep them
for a bit longer and that will only affect the EU car
manufacturers.

So those 'experts' have no basis for their claim that
leaving the EU would cripple the British economy.


It won't 'cripple' - I don't remember that mentioned in anything
approaching measured analysis.


--
Cheers, Rob