"Nightjar" wrote in message
...
On 29-Jun-16 10:19 PM, Capitol wrote:
Nightjar wrote:
On 29-Jun-16 4:35 PM, Capitol wrote:
Nightjar wrote:
On 29-Jun-16 11:14 AM, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 29/06/16 11:00, Nightjar wrote:
...
The forecasts are still out there, for anybody to check what they
said.


For sure, so in 20 years time we can go back and say 'well those
forecasts were total lies weren't they' ...

I sincerely hope so, but I very much doubt it. Economists are rarely
so much in agreement as they are about the future of the UK after
Brexit.


Well, for this week they are wrong.

They didn't predict what would happen this week. They predicted what
will happen over the next 5, 10 or 15 years, depending which report
you are looking at. Apart from a few things, like HSBC relocating
1,000 employees to Paris, it will be a slow decline. Over the years,
outside investors will simply stop developing their presence in the UK
and will expand their operations in other countries instead.

If people can't get 7 day forecasts right, they are very never
going to get a 5 year forecast correct!

What is happening now is market volatility. What will happen in the next
five years is far more predictable.

I am seeing in the London area
considerable investment going in on the basis of being able to recruit
world wide once again.

Nothing to stop anybody doing that while still in the EU. The only thing
that will change when we leave is that EU citizens might have to meet the
same rules on work permits as non-EU citizens.

Kellys ice cream are investing 2M in a new plant
in Cornwall.

A private limited company, incorporated in England, and they won't have
decided to do that in the past week.

Why are you so pessimistic?

Because we are no longer a gateway to the EU for foreign investors. In
future, if a foreign investor wants to start or expand their business
inside the EU, they won't be coming here to do it. A great deal of our
financial services involve passporting across the EU from bases in London
and those services are also likely to move to another EU country unless
the deal we make allows passporting to continue. However, any deal that
allows that is likely to include things that leaving was supposed to end,
such as the free movement of labour.

This is a great
opportunity.People are very optimistic on a future outside the EU and
it's regulations and getting more sales from Asia.

Germany seems to have done very well at expanding its markets outside the
EU, while remaining inside. If British companies have failed to do that,

They haven't, most obviously with aircraft engines, TV
docos and drama. Britain has in fact done rather better
with aircraft engines alone than Germany has with cars.

In spades with financial services. Britain wasn’t actually
stupid enough to pour billions into Greece to see those
billions ****ed against the wall by the Greeks.

they are not likely to do any better outside the EU and there is no
certainty that any existing regulations will be relaxed.

None of them can be imposed by the EU anymore.

Most of those in the financial services, for example, reflect the
perceived need in the UK and are unlikely to change significantly.

Yes, but that is only a tiny subset of the regulations.

In any case, any business that wants to deal with the EU will still have
to meet EU regulations.

And those that also deal with the rest of the world are
free to ignore EU regulations completely with those.

And free to ignore what the EU proclaims
must happen in their own country too.