On 27/06/16 15:37, pamela wrote:
On 11:38 27 Jun 2016, Rod Speed wrote:

pamela wrote

If a party campaigned not to leave the EU
and won a general election later this year

Not going to happen given the referendum result.

And the Torys arent going to do that and Labour
hasnt even the remotest possibility of being the
government now that it is ripping itself to shreds.

then would they have a mandate
to over rule the referendum result?

You might as well ask what would happen
if one party farted itself to the moon.

There is such widespread disquiet over the referendum result that it
would not be surprising to see a ton of dodgy squirming and
manoeuvering.

Well you are doing it already

YOU have only noticed the disquiet, because you have been in a remainiac
bubble. Go UKIP canvassing and you get a different story. Serious anger
at the establishment parties and the EU.

Walk round with a UKIP rosette on and people toot their horns and wave
and yell 'stick it to the ****s'


There's a HUGE wave of pro UKIP pro leave sentiment that the people who
live in the remainiac parts simply do not understand.

UKIP won the European elections, where people thought it made no
difference anyway, they voted UKIP.

They didn't vote UKIP in the general because they didnt think UKIP would
win and were scared that labour might win, and because they didnt know
if UKIP had the talent to form a proper opposition


Right now, however Labour won't win. Not a cat's chance in hell. And
that means that labour voters will switch to UKIP big time. And
disaffected Tory brexiteers will vote UKIP because there is no danger of
Labour getting in.

An election now with an unresolved Brexit would give UKIP a lot of seats.

Last opinion poll was Tories 34%. Labour 30% UKIP 18%. Limp Dims 8 %,
leaving 10% to split amongst plaid Cymru, the SNP, Sinn Fein, Ulster
Unionists the greens etc etc . But that is all in local areas politics.
And apart from scotland ins pretty meaningless in terms of votes.

Suppose we take 5% off the tories and 6% off labour and give it to UKIP?

Tories now poll 29%
Labour now polls 24%
UKIP now polls *29%*


Guess who is now forming a coalition government with the tories?
But ONLY on the basis of a brexit.

Then you look at the brexit demographic, and as I pointed out earlier,
remain is heavily concentrated in a few constituencies, leave is the
majority across huge swathes of England and Wales. No party that wants
to win would be a remain party.

My guess is Labour would be remain to hoover up the metropolitan vote,
but lose the trad working class vote to UKIP in the midlands and the
north and the tories would go brexit, to retain a majority in the shires.

If they lost a few home counties remainers to the lib dems, so what?


Scotland and Ireland are lost causes for the tories anyway.


If you spin the numbers that way, tories lose a few votes, but not to
UKIP, labour at least hold their core metropolitan voters but lose
ground to UKIP elsewhere. Tories win on a leave ticket, and UKIP gain a
little ground at labours expense.

And because tories like to win, that's what they do.


Sorry dear, but the demographics are against you.


--
€œBut what a weak barrier is truth when it stands in the way of an
hypothesis!€�

Mary Wollstonecraft