"Chris Hogg" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 17:06:58 +0100, "tim..."
wrote:

FTAOD

I am not suggesting that the Government will fall but that Cameroon and,
as
a consequence Osborne with him, will resign PDQ in the event of a Leave
vote.

they have invested to much political capital in Remain to do anything else

tim




If 'Leave' wins, the consequences seem very uncertain. Cameron could
then put a motion before parliament requesting authority to proceed
with withdrawal negotiations, which, given that the official lines of
both Conservative and Labour parties are to 'remain', he could easily
lose by a large majority.

Then what?

Everything carries on unchanged, at least until the next general
election, and ignoring the fact that 'Leave' won?

Or there might be a vote of no confidence initiated by Labour, or the
Conservative 'Leave' group, the result of which is difficult to
predict. Unlike the referendum, where a simple majority of the entire
population will be enough to decide 'in' or 'out', it's a majority of
parliamentary seats that decides which party holds sway, and in recent
years the party with that majority doesn't necessarily have a majority
of votes cast throughout the country. As the current conservative
majority in the house is small, a slight swing to Labour could put
them in power,

Not a chance with Corbyn driving the Labour bus, you watch.
Labour hasn't got a hope in hell of forming govt until he gets
the bums rush.

and Corbyn is opposed to leaving the EU. So would he feel a
duty to negotiate with the EU to leave? Maybe, but maybe not.

So it seems to me that there's no certainty about us leaving the EU
even if 'Leave' wins.

The other obvious possibility is that if leave wins, Boris
gets to replace Cameron and puts one hell of a bomb
under those who want to ignore the referendum result.

Bet that is why he changed his position on leaving,
so he gets to replace Cameron and to leave as soon
as possible even if the EU attempts to stall that.